Future of the Australian Electricity Market

[Chris Parks]

Then there is this

Tesla batteries seen undercutting Australia’s $7.1b Marinus Link project (smh.com.au) (https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/tesla-batteries-seen-undercutting-australia-s-7-1b-marinus-link-project-20211124-p59btc.html)

On a totally different scale but this is somewhat like my assertion that areas and towns will start to generate locally off the main grid.

[Chris Parks]

This is interesting, from what I can gather it is a suburban community mini grid but it is not clear if they are connected or totally disconnected from the main grid.

Perth suburbs chosen for $35 million virtual power plant combining solar and batteries (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/perth-suburbs-chosen-for-35-million-virtual-power-plant-combining-solar-and-batteries/ar-AARjF8E?ocid=winp1taskbar)

[BobL]

This is interesting, from what I can gather it is a suburban community mini grid but it is not clear if they are connected or totally disconnected from the main grid.

Perth suburbs chosen for $35 million virtual power plant combining solar and batteries (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/perth-suburbs-chosen-for-35-million-virtual-power-plant-combining-solar-and-batteries/ar-AARjF8E?ocid=winp1taskbar)

They're still connected AND they have to agree to give control of any major smart appliances over to the energy authority.


Residents who agreed to opt-in would have their appliances managed remotely."If you've got an energy asset that's using a lot of energy, we can communicate with that smart appliance for certain parts of the day and we can reduce the pressure by just asking that air conditioner to go to 75 or 50 per cent of its energy use."We'll only do it for 10 or 15 minutes in a way that customers don't even notice, but they get rewarded for participating.

My guess this will means on a hot (40ºC) day and there's no Fremantle doctor you won't get your full AC in the evenings when everyone's ACs are still running flat chat

[russ57]

Something odd apparently happened in the energy market last night. Ou energy provider, amber, who passes on wholesale rates, warned of price spikes forecast by the market operator. This happens occasionally but usually predicted well in advance, but yesterday there was almost no warning. The predicted price went sky high ($18/kwh) but in fact always resolved at the end of the interval to around 40c, which is marginally high but nothing special.
Apparently investigations are in hand. Annoying.

[BobL]

They're still connected AND they have to agree to give control of any major smart appliances over to the energy authority.
My guess this will means on a hot (40ºC) day and there's no Fremantle doctor you won't get your full AC in the evenings when everyone's ACs are still running flat chat

Found out a bit more - apparently handing control over will be optional and it comes with unspecified financial benefit.
I assume this means rates for some of the power you draw back out off the grid in a non peak period will be reduced..
The control will not be used to turn things completely off but to reduce your appliances power draw - eg turning an AC down from 100% of 75 or 50%.

[Bushmiller]

Something that has not widely been explained is that as we progressively transition to renewables, the demand for electricity will increase and this is for at least a couple of reasons. Firstly as we have discussed before there will be huge demand through the day to charge batteries to store energy for the "sunless" hours.

Secondly there will be a genuine increase in demand: All those forms of transport that now use petroleum fuels will go either directly to electric or if hydrogen gains a foothold indirectly. I don't have any figures for this, but I can imagine it to be a very significant increase.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

I have made mention in the past on this thread that solar and wind power are unable to regulate frequency, which is an essential aspect of electrical generation. There are revenues to be made from participating in this aspect in addition to the MW pricing. However, I do need to point out that it is not impossible for solar and wind to regulate frequency, it is just that in Australia the owners of these renewable plants have chosen not to incorporate such mechanisms to allow this to happen (primarily because the technology is new and probably expensive too). The storage batteries are superb in this area and to some extent may be able to compensate for the deficiencies of renewables, but on a large enough scale this is probably down the track a way.

This article explains a little more if you are interested:

Let’s talk about FCAS – WattClarity (https://wattclarity.com.au/articles/2017/03/lets-talk-about-fcas/)

"FCAS" stands for Frequency Control and Ancillary Services.

Regards
Paul

[Chris Parks]

A couple of interesting articles on supply, pricing and community batteries

Solar power prices are falling. What does this mean for our household electricity bills? - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-12-03/solar-power-how-cheap-will-it-get-household-electricity-bill/100664690)

Yackandandah's community battery may not be 'big' but it's enough to 'petrify' energy providers - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-24/community-battery-yackandandah-ausgrid-electricity-shakeup/100159460)

[woodPixel]

And how about this startlingly obvious idea....

Have a hill, plus excess cheap electricity? Well, put giant blocks of rock into carts and haul them up a hill.

When the juice is needed, roll them back down....

Just like stored hydro, but on rails :)

ARES North America '-' The Power of Gravity (https://aresnorthamerica.com/)


The GravityLineTM storage system is made up of multiple 5MW tracks and can vary in size from 5 MW to 1 GW of power and an equivalent range of energy (MWh to GWh) depending upon weight and number of mass cars, slope and distance. ARES’ GravityLineTM design boasts duration flexibility of between 15 mins and 10 hours


https://youtu.be/KMRg4_ZbqYQ

[pintek]

Secondly there will be a genuine increase in demand: All those forms of transport that now use petroleum fuels will go either directly to electric or if hydrogen gains a foothold indirectly. I don't have any figures for this, but I can imagine it to be a very significant increase.

Was only talking about this to a mate the other day - what is the evening peak load going to look like when everyone gets home, chucks on the AC, turns on the oven and plugs in their electric car? Considering how many vehicles are in an average neighborhood, each with their own EV 15A charger drawing around 10A or more each is going to add up real quick. A lot of clients want us to install fast chargers which can draw up to 40A on a single phase supply, but often their mains don't have the capacity (house built pre 1980). Obviously they won't all be plugged in at the same time or drawing high current for the entire night, but we are certainly moving maximum demand on domestic consumer mains closer to capacity. I put 3 phase onto my place mainly for the shed machinery, but certainly had this in mind for futureproofing.

[Beardy]

Was only talking about this to a mate the other day - what is the evening peak load going to look like when everyone gets home, chucks on the AC, turns on the oven and plugs in their electric car? Considering how many vehicles are in an average neighborhood, each with their own EV 15A charger drawing around 10A or more each is going to add up real quick. A lot of clients want us to install fast chargers which can draw up to 40A on a single phase supply, but often their mains don't have the capacity (house built pre 1980). Obviously they won't all be plugged in at the same time or drawing high current for the entire night, but we are certainly moving maximum demand on domestic consumer mains closer to capacity. I put 3 phase onto my place mainly for the shed machinery, but certainly had this in mind for futureproofing.

I am thinking that these charging outlets will need to be on a timer or a load monitor to perform the charging with excess power or in off peak times in the early hours of the morning . As long as it is good to go for the next day that would work fine

[havabeer69]

I am thinking that these charging outlets will need to be on a timer or a load monitor to perform the charging with excess power or in off peak times in the early hours of the morning . As long as it is good to go for the next day that would work fine

no different to your electric hot water system that only comes on at night.

[ian]

Was only talking about this to a mate the other day - what is the evening peak load going to look like when everyone gets home, chucks on the AC, turns on the oven and plugs in their electric car? Considering how many vehicles are in an average neighborhood, each with their own EV 15A charger drawing around 10A or more each is going to add up real quick. A lot of clients want us to install fast chargers which can draw up to 40A on a single phase supply, but often their mains don't have the capacity (house built pre 1980). Obviously they won't all be plugged in at the same time or drawing high current for the entire night, but we are certainly moving maximum demand on domestic consumer mains closer to capacity. I put 3 phase onto my place mainly for the shed machinery, but certainly had this in mind for futureproofing.
Here's a thought, perhaps electric vehicles (when they finally achieve more than their current miniscule market penetration) will grant Australia's coal fired power stations a [near permanent] new lease of life.
As we all know, the sun doesn't shine at night -- so no solar energy at night.
The wind also typically drops at night. Meaning that unless there is a stupendous number of wind turbines all attempting to spin all through the night (and then sitting idle during the day when the sun is shining) -- coal fired power will regain its king like power. Which is very not good for greenhouse gas emissions.

I can't see pumped hydro ever reaching the scale required to allow a 100% electric vehicle fleet to be charged during the night. As far as I know there is just not enough suitable sites that can be developed. And don't get me started on battery technology.

[Bushmiller]

Here's a thought, perhaps electric vehicles (when they finally achieve more than their current miniscule market penetration) will grant Australia's coal fired power stations a [near permanent] new lease of life.
As we all know, the sun doesn't shine at night -- so no solar energy at night.
The wind also typically drops at night. Meaning that unless there is a stupendous number of wind turbines all attempting to spin all through the night (and then sitting idle during the day when the sun is shining) -- coal fired power will regain its king like power. Which is very not good for greenhouse gas emissions.

I can't see pumped hydro ever reaching the scale required to allow a 100% electric vehicle fleet to be charged during the night. As far as I know there is just not enough suitable sites that can be developed. And don't get me started on battery technology.

Ian

I believe the electricity market dynamic will change .... again!

The peak period used to be during the winter when I first worked in power stations. Today it is the summer thanks to the widespread adoption of air conditioning. Traditionally, night time was a low period and certain concessions on pricing were offered to make use of surplus power such as off-peak water heating.

Perhaps the incentives will change to daytime for such things as water heating, pool pumps and charging your electric vehicle. This would further lessen the night demand and reduce, but by no means eliminate, the need for storage systems.

I too am sceptical of the ability of pumped hydro: I just don't think there is enough and during dry times (El Ninos outnumber La Ninas by four or five to one) the situation would be close to diabolical.

I mentioned a few posts back that overall electricity production would likely have to step up. These are some quotes I picked up by a report from AEMO.

"Coal-fired power generators are expected to shut down nearly three times faster than previously anticipated and will have exited the National Electricity Market (NEM) entirely by 2043, according to an updated plan from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)."

"Demand for electricity is expected to double between now and 2050 to account for both the growth in demand and the shift away from other sources of energy, such as natural gas and petrol."

"Large-scale renewable generators like wind and solar farms will need to increase nine-fold, while smaller scale solar (such as rooftop and community solar panels) will need to grow five-fold."

The full story can be read here:

Early exit for coal as National Electricity Market prepares for renewable future (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/early-exit-for-coal-as-national-electricity-market-prepares-for-renewable-future/ar-AARDJdT?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531)

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

EV charging energy demands may not turn out to be quite as bad as it seems.

Most cars are not on the road all day, or don't sit out on streets during they day, they sit at home, or in various forms of car parks. Smart employers that provide parking could add charging stations, as will places like shopping centres etc, so some cars won't need to be charged at night.

The other major factor is very few EV batteries will need to be completely recharged from scratch - the average Australian vehicle only does 36km a day.

Here's a quick BOTE calculation - someone might want to check this - I'm suffering from concussion from a heavy base saucepan falling onto my head.
IF a 70KWh battery gets you 400k that means a daily average of 6.3 kwh is needed for recharging .
As of Jan 2021 there were about 20 million registered vehicles in Australia.
If all of these were electric (and they won't, and vehicle replacement won't happen overnight) this means and average of 120 GWh of energy will be needed every day for vehicle recharging
x 365days = 44 TWhr /yr

Total annual electricity production in Australia in ~200 TWhr so a solely EV fleet recharging will require about a 20% increase in total electrical supply. If half the vehicles can charge during the day (conservative in my estimate, especially if suitable incentives are provided) using excess solar, then it comes down to about a 10% increase not that much in the overall scheme of things.

The side benefits are not to be sneezed at.
- significantly reduced vehicle particulate emissions (we still need to talk about tyres) - hence improved health and quality of life - thereby saving money
- improved balanced of payments from not needing to import as much fuel.
- more secure energy sources for vehicles - ie reduced reliance on OS suppliers for vehicle fuel.
The fact that the Govt is not all over the latter 2 aspects shows the power of petroleum companies.
I looked up the amount of fuel imported for 2020-21. https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/Australian%20Petroleum%20Statistics%20-%20Issue%20302%20September%202021.pdf
For petrol alone it's around 8G.
Diesel is 22 GL, but most of that will be for agriculture and industrial purposes rather than daily commuter vehicles.

[woodPixel]

Further to BobLs excellent post....

-- EVs are storage batteries too
-- I'd imagine they benefit from not being charged to 100% every time, every day, but (perhaps) about 80%
-- Excess juice can be syphoned off 20 million cars into the vehicles that need it

I'd imagine most EV aren't simply dumb repositories. I'm vaguely aware that Teslas send a bunch of telemetry and diagnostics back home each night to The Great AI that does Something with it (https://www.tesla.com/en_au/support/energy/tesla-software/powerhub)....

I'd also imagine that the government might set a base of information and open standards that need to be applied to all EV's, just like they did with OBD2 diagnostics. Since manufacturers refused to play nice with OBD diagnostics, governments forced them to. EVs nightly diagnostics might be the same.

SO!

--> Why not charge them up while the sun shines and the wind blows....
--> And suck them down to 60 or 80% when it doesn't....
--> Pay EV owners c/Kw

And everyone wins.

If one does expect a long trip, or set of trips, this coming day/week then log in to the management tool and select "fill er up!"....

In bobLs case, 20 million batteries is a lot of reserve... along with home batteries, home wind generators and other crafty micro generators.

[markkr]

And furthermore, supplying the sort of infrastructure required for BobL's solution is not expensive.

All it would need would be a standard double GPO per pair of car spaces, probably with rooftop solar directly on the carpark.

After all, 6A current -> ~1.4KW charging rate -> 6-7KWh in around 4-5 hours. So nothing more than a standard power outlet.

[ian]

And furthermore, supplying the sort of infrastructure required for BobL's solution is not expensive.

All it would need would be a standard double GPO per pair of car spaces, probably with rooftop solar directly on the carpark.

After all, 6A current -> ~1.4KW charging rate -> 6-7KWh in around 4-5 hours. So nothing more than a standard power outlet.
Some examples of electric vehicles:
BMW i3 -- Battery 42.2 kWh, Range 160 km -- infrastructure required 9.6 kW (4x what a 10A fuse can support), charge time 4.5 hours.
BMW iX -- Battery about 680 kWh, Range 470 km -- infrastructure required 9.6 kW, charge time 11.5 hours.
GM BOLT -- Range about 400 km -- infrastructure required 7.68 kW (3.2x what a 10A fuse can support), charge time 10 hours.
Kia Kona -- battery 78 kWh, Range about 240 km -- infrastructure required 4 kW (1.7x what a 10A fuse can support), charge time 19.5 hours.

If you are using your roof top solar to do the charging, you really should dispense with the DC to AC converter.
Wire the power points to deliver DC from the roof panels.

So I will strongly disagree with your assessment that the infrastructure is "not expensive".
AFAIK, all those vehicle "chargers" will require a dedicated circuit wired back to the main electrical panel.

as an example, 6A charging a 42.2 kWh battery at 1.4 kW/hr will take about 30 hours to fully charge the smallest battery (BMW i3) among those example vehicles.

[markkr]

What you have posted Ian is absolutely correct, except my understanding from Bob's post was that he was referring to recharging of that day's usage, which is only the 6-7KWh required for the mean 36km driven in typical urban daily use (the majority of usage). This sort of 'trickle charging' would not be appropriate for long distance travel.

The double inversion is a valid point, but the intent of my post was to posit as simple a solution as possible from the point of view of installation for widespread use of the excess daytime available PV output that I understand Bob was referring to.

[Chris Parks]

The charger is built into the car it is only the supply that needs installation.

[BobL]

At an average of only 36km (6.3kW) a day, most cars won't need to recharge at 10A.
To recharge overnight.6.3kWh can be done at 0.5kW over 12 hours.

Most people don't fill up every day - most fill up say about once a week AND the tank is usually not empty. You'll need to get used to going home and plugging in. Car might not charge till 3am.

[Bushmiller]

At an average of only 36km (6.3kW) a day, most cars won't need to recharge at 10A.
To recharge overnight.6.3kWh can be done at 0.5kW over 12 hours.

Most people don't fill up every day - most fill up say about once a week AND the tank is usually not empty. You'll need to get used to going home and plugging in. Car might not charge till 3am.

Bob

As I mentioned, the dynamic will change. Cars will charge during the day at preferential rates not during the night. It occurred to me that we could see charging facilities similar to parking meters. Just a supposition as i have not heard of this being proposed.

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

I feel you are all getting yourselves into a tizzy.

The dynamics will change.

One will leave the car plugged in 100% of the time. It will "sell" electricity when expensive, charge (buy) when cheap.

It seems trivial to log into a server, or use the cars Ap, that can manage all this and tick a box the equivalent of:

-- charge only when rates are cheapest
-- sell when high
-- Im driving to PERTH, fill er up cap'n
-- Drain my House Battery and pump it into the Beast

Just like you don't drive around with your fuel tank full all the time, neither will EVs.

BushMiller is right about the Parking Meter chargers. I saw these in Denmark. They work EXACTLY as you'd expect. The vehicles supply a buffer to the cities grid and one receives free parking. Otherwise you are .... charged.... ba-dum-tiss!

[ian]

What you have posted Ian is absolutely correct, except my understanding from Bob's post was that he was referring to recharging of that day's usage, which is only the 6-7KWh required for the mean 36km driven in typical urban daily use (the majority of usage). This sort of 'trickle charging' would not be appropriate for long distance travel.

The double inversion is a valid point, but the intent of my post was to posit as simple a solution as possible from the point of view of installation for widespread use of the excess daytime available PV output that I understand Bob was referring to.
I understand that BobL was talking about the average daily kms. Not the mode (most frequent km value) nor the median (the middle value of km travelled). I understand that the average is calculated by dividing the total kms travelled in the last year -- as recorded on NSW Pink slips -- by the number of days in the year.
So on that basis, the average ICE vehicle travels just over 13,000 km/year --> using BobL's average of 36 km per day.

To use your own excess solar panel output to charge an electric vehicle, the vehicle has to be parked at your home and plugged into your own roof top panels. Not that easy to do in certain inner city suburbs where the majority of parking is 'on street' and few properties have roof top solar fitted -- for reasons which include the property is rented or a unit.

I believe the typical vehicle is used during the week to commute to work, the local train station or the shops.
If the vehicle is being used to access the local train station, plugging it in to trickle charge in the middle of the night -- using wind, or nuclear generated electricity -- is almost certainly viable.
BUT if it's being used to commute to work or go to the shops, the roof of the employment location or the your shopping centre and it's associated car park is not large enough to supply the power the office or shops need for lighting, cooling, etc., PLUS also charge an electric vehicle.


Comments

[Beardy]

I can’t help but think EV’s as we know them won’t be around long and we will transition to some form of fuel cell.
This talk of an average of 36k a day is just a statistic so is misleading to how vehicles get used here in Australia. Those sort of travel patterns are fine for city folk commuting to the shops or train station but doesn’t cut it for the broader community
The infrastructure to accommodate the EV is substantial so we need to make sure that is the direction the technology is heading.

[BobL]

if it's being used to commute to work or go to the shops, the roof of the employment location or the your shopping centre and it's associated car park is not large enough to supply the power the office or shops need for lighting, cooling, etc., PLUS also charge an electric vehicle.


There's plenty of spare power around doing the day, with the 20,000 houses fitted with solar surrounding a shopping centre or any other workplace easily producing on average about 10kW of excess power. The issue is distribution - the shopping centre will need to be able to handle the power requirements . Of course this is not going to happen overnight - Initially I would expect charging stations to be available to senior management, then maybe loyalty customers. Eventually charging infrastructure will just become part of the initial build of any premises.

I agree with you about the issue of recharging the vehicles associated with the large numbers of appartments and dwellings with vehicles parked on streets etc.
Interestingly Europe is much more of this kind of society than Australia (especially western Australia) but this issue does not seem to have held back EV uptake and they are miles or kilometres ahead of us on that score..
Shell is getting in on this with smart street lamppost charging systems, see ubitricity: public EV lamp post charge points for everyone (https://www.ubitricity.com).
This is only just getting started eg First installation of ubitricity EV lamp post charge points in Dublin (https://www.ubitricity.com/first-installation-of-ubitricity-ev-lamp-post-charge-points-in-dublin/)
Once again its not going to happen overnight :)

[Chris Parks]

Why does a BEV need charging every day, we don't put petrol in our ICE cars every day. In my case I fill my car about once a month but that is not normal but if I was working I would put petrol in every 10 days or so. Frequency of charging is dependent on the range of a charge and even the shortest range BEV will last more than a day unless the commute is longer than normal. I can think of one where a lot of people travel long distances as a normal commute and that is Wollongong to Sydney which would be exceptionally hard on a BEV due to the climb out of Wollongong. Some BEV's would simply not have the range to do that return trip every day, the new Mazda being one. It is all horses for courses and no single answer suits all. As for fuel cells that is not going to happen in the first generation of vehicles that replace the ICE fleet no matter what Toyota would like. It is staggering how far the Japanese have lagged behind the Europeans in planning the move to BEV's.

VW plans to spend 89 Billion on the move to BEV's. VW Will Build More EVs to Beat Tesla in Europe (autoweek.com) (https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a38485584/vw-electric-car-production-wolfsburg-hanover/)

Compared to the introduction of ICE vehicles we are around 1910 when service stations did not exist as we know them today and the range of the car was limited to the amount of fuel that could be carried.

[Beardy]

I was speaking with a guy from the US and they are having issues getting enough power into the Condos to charge EV’s.The tenants are happy to pay their end but the capacity is not in the street
The network is just not designed to accommodate the additional loads, I assume we will have similar issues

[BobL]

All these power arguments remind me of
- there has to be a man walking in front of and carrying a flag of every motor vehicle
- the noise will frighten the horses
- there won't be enough rubber for the tyres.
- there won't be enough oil/petrol for the fuel
- a steam ship cannot carry enough coal to cross the Atlantic.
- heavier than air flying appliances? - Not a chance!
- Iron ships - HA!

Instead of just coming up with excuses/barriers - how about directing some energy to solutions?

[Beardy]

Bob it is not a criticism I am just pointing out the reality of the situation. It will be a big project and expensive so we need to know that this is the new technology in the longer term before we get too far down the track.

[BobL]

Bob it is not a criticism I am just pointing out the reality of the situation. It will be a big project and expensive so we need to know that this is the new technology in the longer term before we get too far down the track.

Sure - I appreciate there will be (many) problems but we are so far back in the pack we can learn a lot from others, like Norway

An interesting read is the lengthy Wikipedia entry for plug-in EVs in Norway
Plug-in electric vehicles in Norway - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_Norway)

There's a lot in there about "incentives" and "charging patterns" and how they change as the fleet size increases.

The BIG difference for mainland Oz is they're able to use all Hydro power at night to recharge so we're going to have to rely on some other form of storage. Tassie should be OK.

There's loads of "low hanging fruit vehicles" that can get on the bandwagon early (city delivery fleets etc) unfortunately vehicle owners in (old) apartments are probably going to be at the end of the queue.

[woodPixel]

https://youtu.be/-MJfjrgEq34

[ian]

https://youtu.be/-MJfjrgEq34
Funny -- somewhat

I've mentioned before that I currently live in Canada.
My part of Canada gets a little bit cold -- like several consecutive days where the maximum doesn't get above -30 deg C. The month of February, in particular, can be brutal. Don't ask.

When I last looked into getting a Tesla EV, my questions to the sales person revolved around the Tesla's range when the battery is very cold. When a Tesla's battery gets very cold, the vehicle's range drops so far that a 180 km return journey -- 90km each way -- became an iffy proposition. My options were:
1) to leave with a full charge and allow 30 mins to top up the charge at the halfway point (after 90 km), or
2) to put a Honda genset in the boot so I could guarantee that the journey could be completed without running out of juice 5 km short of my home.

In the end, given my then driving requirements, an internal combustion engine was the better option.

[Bohdan]

When a Tesla's battery gets very cold, the vehicle's range drops so far that a 180 km return journey -- 90km each way -- became an iffy proposition.

Wouldn't the battery warm up when you start using it, restoring the range.

[Beardy]

What do you make of this, is it just propaganda?

The end of coal is coming 3 times faster than expected. Governments must accept it and urgently support a 'just transition' (https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-coal-is-coming-3-times-faster-than-expected-governments-must-accept-it-and-urgently-support-a-just-transition-173591)

[Bushmiller]

What do you make of this, is it just propaganda?

The end of coal is coming 3 times faster than expected. Governments must accept it and urgently support a 'just transition' (https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-coal-is-coming-3-times-faster-than-expected-governments-must-accept-it-and-urgently-support-a-just-transition-173591)

Beardy

That statement came from AEMO and in fact I posted it back in post #214 as I thought it significant that the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) that governs electricity generation on the eastern seaboard should make such a prediction. While I don't know if it will eventuate, I don't believe it is propaganda.

Regards
Paul

[ian]

When a Tesla's battery gets very cold, the vehicle's range drops so far that a 180 km return journey -- 90km each way -- became an iffy proposition.

Wouldn't the battery warm up when you start using it, restoring the range.
I don't really know, but EV range performance has something to do with temperature of the environment -- the Tesla salesperson knew that at -30 C, driving at freeway speeds, guaranteeing the Tesla could get 180 km of range (equivalent to 110 miles) was iffy. I believe that when I was asking in late 2017, the Tesla's battery was fitted with a thermal management system,

quoting from Lithium-Ion Batteries Deconstructed: Why They are Terrible in the Cold - autoevolution (https://www.autoevolution.com/news/lithium-ion-batteries-deconstructed-why-they-are-terrible-in-the-cold-139456.html)
In low temperatures , [B]performance drops significantly because the chemical reaction is simply slowed down, but only when it comes to discharging the battery. Li-ion batteries can actually power an EV at - 40 degrees Celsius (- 40 Fahrenheit), albeit with a reduced discharge rate and only if they are fitted with thermal management systems, but there is simply no way you will be able to charge them at those temperatures because they simply slow down too much. (my emphasis)



And from BU-502: Discharging at High and Low Temperatures - Battery University (https://www.batteryuniversity.com/article/bu-502-discharging-at-high-and-low-temperatures)




505032




<figcaption style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: italic; font-size: 12px; margin: 15px 0px text-align: center; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(246, 246, 246);">
Figure 1: Discharge voltage of an 18650 Li-ion cell at 3A and various temperatures [1]
Cell type: Panasonic NRC18650PD, 2.8Ah nominal, LiNiCoAlO2 (NCA
</figcaption>



my best guess is that the Tesla salesperson was extrapolating the potential range from the Panasonic -20 deg C data.


and for those who would like to read more
An Experimental Study of a Lithium Ion Cell Operation at Low Temperature Conditions - ScienceDirect (https://pdf.sciencedirectassets.com/277910/1-s2.0-S1876610217X00052/1-s2.0-S1876610217301479/main.pdf?X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEF8aCXVzLWVhc3QtMSJIMEYCIQCU55Uyuat%2BqYwdIVQ%2FFfERt0rRPH4z1KNAnHP45BkRNwIhAPJpADy54%2BqbIPI4NJ7SziaD3MVdV8O58EzAV6D82COJKvoDCEcQBBoMMDU5MDAzNTQ2ODY1IgweGZklI5R5oochpgUq1wOi0110hNu6aEQ4nu8vm%2B%2B3TOX7%2BwaLwWXBQHuY2Hg9NvjsuEbHcz0BjaEJyxxTkQDNSoz3S7eiS4VrqRdhHPnXWFGShd0lMa0cfV2BvJNiCY7G9Hw2OsmsBbAIvUpWTPhszXo7%2FMfgdkRDUqpzkLfpAMeWESa2eQTah%2FnvGwHo6troDXGcmLl2E3ns5Xd1SU%2BmzRUyru8UxLa87zR%2BFVgVTjDvrwTiktd0PgLs%2FW5FFeFqPSCU0n1E2DZx4V9XtpVOyCfeksDJx%2BMtlcr9iTDORPsTfeXEZJi1Xk%2FdVXeGhCOym35knyY3V6zCH60cS2gUUsVdFBIBxvKsdLW3eY%2FGETYGytf6lxbySb7nJpAJEjTX7f2aou4IL53wMiapZ938fglCoy3XN8OIq2rXD5ko5b%2B8JdkNNEWA7J8wdb6MrnDalIJVRAIQZw0LMVHRDmYrJw%2BYpvh2kIEF%2B8URYZTH7KaDQUWjRITUdYp6%2BWEAksujPSJkdZjaB2RK5IwPpGeLgoe5XWZ8ZK%2BZdDPKKVmM%2FyPGENcYVnzwUc26R1YGAEsP0wn9MxEZfNncgtXsy1KUVf7vn1yhxpFMxLDNMOpjoXqymyVhp%2Fgazzn43V6hyTipGBiqLaMwr6vdjQY6pAFf88%2BG8y5QT%2FrkqxPLGZ5o857vwvrEDJwbzuP8McD4FMS4WgMtUrXOjKS1xYHhQswBvLekSMapvIkbjYR%2Be9zJ3uzMfr8xUGIXsUzKsD0FfNJYVvVj8wYLFvICmo6KuRBF68gwEZiwHGiRlmlFDdLRdYrQhfHONhMwIafQFOpY8xPhEXCbftD%2BkQzTNXCJMB6upquu%2FBQH3OSBOkxB21PW40%2FtAA%3D%3D&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Date=20211213T160409Z&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Expires=300&X-Amz-Credential=ASIAQ3PHCVTYWAYTXUPB%2F20211213%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Signature=9a0baf8bad207287ef3db264f8c918f3042a40c9b5a812a8a938581b2827a547&hash=d3a4d87e315e18285e9f599e74b8ddf45cf1f4f198d36877193c279fb2b8e022&host=68042c943591013ac2b2430a89b270f6af2c76d8dfd086a07176afe7c76c2c61&pii=S1876610217301479&tid=spdf-6b92f822-b310-424d-9474-8a43d076266f&sid=6ee027ea94cbc64225189a06413ec1659198gxrqa&type=client)

[woodPixel]

Good stuff.

I'd imagine the same goes for here in Oz where the temps can get pretty damn hot.

Hot batteries seem like a VERY bad idea! :)

[Bushmiller]

My understanding is that one of the limitations of Lithium Ion batteries is their propensity for catching fire if they are charged too rapidly. I also believe that this is particularly pertinent during the last stage of charging and is why many of the charging rates quoted go to only 80%. The last part has to be performed more gently: You don't want to melt the Tesla.

Regards
Paul

[Chris Parks]

Good stuff.

I'd imagine the same goes for here in Oz where the temps can get pretty damn hot.

Hot batteries seem like a VERY bad idea! :)

That is the downfall of the Nissan Leaf as it does not have active cooling in the battery packs.

I see no one has offered an explanation as to why an electric car has to be charged every day for the average commute, I guess the simple answer is it doesn't have to be recharged every night/day and the grid will not be supplying to an electric car every time it is used and thus won't implode at 7pm every night.

[Bushmiller]

I am showing this following snap shot to demonstrate that we are not yet there in terms of renewable self sufficiency. Yesterday in South Australia, which is probably the closest to self sufficiency out of all the Australian states, there were some very high prices on the wholesale market. This was one of the most extreme moments, which did only last for a few minutes:

505040

I don't know the full details of what caused this except that SA relies heavily on the two interconnectors and one of them was (and is today also) out of service. That may have combined with something else to have caused a shortage of supply. To put things into perspective, compare that price of $15,100 to the average price in QLD for the day of $69. I don't know what the average worked out at for SA: I am guessing a lot more than $69.

Regards
Paul

[ian]

That is the downfall of the Nissan Leaf as it does not have active cooling in the battery packs.

I see no one has offered an explanation as to why an electric car has to be charged every day for the average commute, I guess the simple answer is it doesn't have to be recharged every night/day and the grid will not be supplying to an electric car every time it is used and thus won't implode at 7pm every night.
True, most electric vehicles won't need to be recharged every time they are used, so the grid won't implode at 7 or 8PM every night.

Now, while I know of no way to obtain reliable values for the distance the average, or mode, or median vehicle is driven each day of the week, in the back of my mind I have the value of 15km as the average distance driven each weekday. If that value is still current, then the typical car is driven an average of 88 km on each of Saturday and Sunday. Which sort of fits with how my own personal vehicle was used. Monday to Friday the car was used to take the kid to and from school and do some shopping (say 10 km per day). On weekends, the car travelled much further -- to take the kid to and from sport on Saturday (say 30 to 50 km) and to visit the folks on Sunday (a round trip of either 70 km or 240 km).

So, if I had owned a BMW i3 (range 160 km), the weekday commute would be a doddle, perhaps requiring a trickle charge mid-week. However, depending on which of the grandparents I was visiting over the weekend, I would be more than a bit worried about hitting the road Friday night or Saturday morning without a full battery. In particular, to visit the grandparents in Bowral, I would need to commence both the outbound and return journeys with an almost full battery. A return journey on a single charge was out of the question.

[ian]

My understanding is that one of the limitations of Lithium Ion batteries is their propensity for catching fire if they are charged too rapidly. I also believe that this is particularly pertinent during the last stage of charging and is why many of the charging rates quoted go to only 80%. The last part has to be performed more gently: You don't want to melt the Tesla.
That is also my understanding -- charging a Li-ion battery to 80% is pretty straight forward. The last 20% needs to be more akin to a trickle charge, but most (all?) electric vehicles are fitted with sensors that reduce the charge rate as the battery's charge state gets beyond about 80%. Somewhere I've seen advice that the most "efficient" way to operate a Tesla is to charge the battery to no more than 80% capacity. Apparently, charging to 80% is the sweet spot between vehicle range and charging time. It takes as long or longer to charge the final 20% of battery capacity as it does to get to 80%.

But the "good news" is that your Tesla is unlikely to melt.

[Chris Parks]

When New Orleans went under water Tesla removed all limitations on charging to ensure 100% and afterwards put the limit back on via over the air updates.

[Bushmiller]

I don't know the full details of what caused this except that SA relies heavily on the two interconnectors and one of them was (and is today also) out of service. That may have combined with something else to have caused a shortage of supply. To put things into perspective, compare that price of $15,100 to the average price in QLD for the day of $69. I don't know what the average worked out at for SA: I am guessing a lot more than $69.

Regards
Paul

I did a little digging. The twenty four hour average was $308 or about four and a half times the average for Queensland for the same period.

Regards
Paul

[havabeer69]

I am showing this following snap shot to demonstrate that we are not yet there in terms of renewable self sufficiency. Yesterday in South Australia, which is probably the closest to self sufficiency out of all the Australian states, there were some very high prices on the wholesale market. This was one of the most extreme moments, which did only last for a few minutes:

505040

I don't know the full details of what caused this except that SA relies heavily on the two interconnectors and one of them was (and is today also) out of service. That may have combined with something else to have caused a shortage of supply. To put things into perspective, compare that price of $15,100 to the average price in QLD for the day of $69. I don't know what the average worked out at for SA: I am guessing a lot more than $69.

Regards
Paul

no wonder everyone wants to shove a battery in S.A

put a 250MW battery in that runs for 2 hours.
$300 MWh
250mw x $300 x 2 hours

there's a quick $150,000 earnings

[ian]

I am showing this following snap shot to demonstrate that we are not yet there in terms of renewable self sufficiency. Yesterday [December 13?] in South Australia, which is probably the closest to self sufficiency out of all the Australian states, there were some very high prices on the wholesale market. This was one of the most extreme moments, which did only last for a few minutes:

505040

I don't know the full details of what caused this except that SA relies heavily on the two interconnectors and one of them was (and is today also) out of service. That may have combined with something else to have caused a shortage of supply. To put things into perspective, compare that price of $15,100 to the average price in QLD for the day of $69. I don't know what the average worked out at for SA: I am guessing a lot more than $69.
I suspect I know what caused the price spike at 11:10 AM on December 13 (is that Eastern Australian Standard or daylight time?)

At Adelaide Airport for Sunday December 13th Hours of sunshine is showing as less than 30% of what they were on each of the preceding three days (Thurs, Fri, Sat). So at a good guess, Adelaide's roof top solar was not contributing nearly enough juice to keep the air cons running. Plus one of the two interconnectors from Victoria (or is one from NSW?) was down.

Bet there was a bit of additional CO2 emitted when the gas units responded to the >$15,000 price spike.

[BobL]

When New Orleans went under water Tesla removed all limitations on charging to ensure 100% and afterwards put the limit back on via over the air updates.

I think that has something to do with Teslas all coming with a 75kW battery but standard/;per priced ones are limited to 60 or 65kW. To get the other 15kW you have to fork up an extra couple of grand. The smart drive software upgrade costs extra as does the hands free driving capability (not legal here in Oz). Its the same with the 0-60 time - faster costs more even on the same power train. Other EV companies are doing similar things. Its like buying a computer and software but if you want the software extensions you have to pay more! Or the recent ISP sales technique of offering free higher speed broadband for a trial period and then cutting back the speed.

BTW several Tesla owners hacked the software to get the extra speed and battery power, BUT that loophole was locked out in the next software upgrade.

[woodPixel]

Intel announced today that future CPUs will do the same.

Pay to unlock "features" on the device YOU own.

[Chris Parks]

Intel announced today that future CPUs will do the same.

Pay to unlock "features" on the device YOU own.

This sort of thing has been going on for years without anyone realising it. When cars became more digitally controlled features such as cruise control could be added via installation of the controls for it on the steering column and the dealer then turned it on. The owner never realised that the car had it all the time and a switch was all that was needed, literally 10 minutes work.\

Edit: To ad to this there is a whole industry based around VW and BMW cars that allows owners to enable features that they did not pay for when they bought the cars because not every feature in the cars is sold in every country but is in the car and not activated. I suppose someone could put forward an argument for enabling a feature in this way as theft, VW obviously think it is because they have recently taken action to stop coding as it is called from happening.

[russ57]

Big computers have had similar features for 20 years or more.
Base price for base performance, pay for an upgrade, get the extra capacity switched on.
There was one supplier at least (ibm maybe), you could actually switch on yourself temporarily at no charge, but after a certain time or number, it became permanent and the bill arrived.

[Bushmiller]

The announcement of a gas fired station (660MW) at Kurri is interesting.

Hunter Power Project - Snowy Hydro (https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/hunter-power-project/)

There are at least three types of gas fired power station. The first employs a conventional boiler but the fuel source is gas instead of coal. The second two utilise gas turbines. The best option of these is the so-called HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generator) where the exhaust gases of the turbine are fed into a boiler to produce low (usually) pressure steam that powers a conventional turbine/generator. In effect the heat from the waste gases is utilised thus making the unit much more efficient.

The last type is the OCGT (Open Cycle Gas Turbine) which is the least efficient model. It is this last type of installation that is going in to the Kurri plant, if it happens. Apparently the government is contributing $600,000 to the project in conjunction with "stakeholders."

NSW approves Morrison government’s $600m Kurri Kurri gas-fired power plant | Fossil fuels | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/20/nsw-approves-morrison-governments-600m-kurri-kurri-gas-fired-power-plant)

I took this quote in particular as an example of a truth disguising an untruth.

"The federal energy minister, Angus Taylor, said the approval was an “important next step” for the project which aimed “to keep prices low and the lights on while creating jobs in the Hunter region”.

Yes, some jobs would definitely be created during construction ( but very few once operational. Those machines can usually be started from your mobile phone or from a remote location thousands of kilometres away) and it may keep the lights on during periods of high demand, but keeping energy prices low using the most expensive, commercial method of producing electricity known to man? Unlikely.

It may be that the announcement is purely political in a lead up to the federal election (Kurri Kurri is in the seat of Patterson, which while Labour held , had a swing to the Liberals in 2019). As to viability I can't see anything that runs for 2% of the year being a viable proposition.

For a moment there was a glimmer of hope in that it led me to believe the machines were designed to run on hydrogen at some point in the future, presumably when renewable power can generate enough excess power to produce hydrogen, but when I read on it would initially be a 10% H2 capability with maybe 30% at a later date.

Regards
Paul

[ian]

there were some very high prices on the wholesale market. This was one of the most extreme moments, which did only last for a few minutes:

505040


The announcement of a gas fired station (660MW) at Kurri is interesting.

Hunter Power Project - Snowy Hydro (https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/hunter-power-project/)

There are at least three types of gas fired power station. The first employs a conventional boiler but the fuel source is gas instead of coal. The second two utilise gas turbines. The best option of these is the so-called HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generator) where the exhaust gases of the turbine are fed into a boiler to produce low (usually) pressure steam that powers a conventional turbine/generator. In effect the heat from the waste gases is utilised thus making the unit much more efficient.

The last type is the OCGT (Open Cycle Gas Turbine) which is the least efficient model. It is this last type of installation that is going in to the Kurri plant, if it happens. Apparently the government is contributing $600,000 to the project in conjunction with "stakeholders."

NSW approves Morrison government’s $600m Kurri Kurri gas-fired power plant | Fossil fuels | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/20/nsw-approves-morrison-governments-600m-kurri-kurri-gas-fired-power-plant)

I took this quote in particular as an example of a truth disguising an untruth.

"The federal energy minister, Angus Taylor, said the approval was an “important next step” for the project which aimed “to keep prices low and the lights on while creating jobs in the Hunter region”.

It may be that the announcement is purely political in a lead up to the federal election (Kurri Kurri is in the seat of Patterson, which while Labour held , had a swing to the Liberals in 2019). As to viability I can't see anything that runs for 2% of the year being a viable proposition.
Paul
Please correct me if I am missing something, but the Eastern states' electricity market operates in 10 minute increments and wholesale supply prices reflect these pricing increments.
If that is the case, 2% of a year contains 1051 pricing "units". For ease of calculation call that 1000 pricing "units".
In your other post (quoted above), prices in SA peaked at $15,100 per MW.
If I can do the sums, 600 MW x $15,100 per MW x 1000 pricing units = $9 Billion per annum.

Assuming a 15% interest rate, the Capital cost of $600 M = $90 Million per year in interest.
Then assume the wholesale gas cost of the gas required to operate the plant is around $1 Billion per year, the potential profit from operating the Kurri Kurri gas plant for just 2% of the year is around $8 Billion.

Now, while I'll readily acknowledge that $15,000 per MW was a momentary peak price in SA, for the $600 million Kurri Kurri gas plant to start loosing money, the 10 minute per MW wholesale electricity price in NSW would need to be below about $1,100.

You will have a better idea than me, but I'm sure the 10 minute peak per MW price for NSW has been above $1000 for much more than 2% of the year.


Comments?

[russ57]

Im afraid you have been caught out by the Aussie habit of abbreviating everything.
Pricing is per MWh, and the pricing interval is not relevant. (and its 5m intervals, not 10).
So 1MW delivered for an hour results in $15000. (but in fact, the peak probably won't last an hour, so the average could be significantly less.) But if it was generating for 2% of the year, say 2.5 hours per week, 52 weeks, income would be around $2Mx600 or $1200M per year with gas costs around $1.8M
But interest is around $1000 per MWh produced, for that 2%. And the average price is more like $70/MWh
And interest continues even if you aren't generating.

If that peak rate does hold for that length of time, it would do ok, but i'd call that a high risk investment.

[Bushmiller]

Ian

A couple of issues there and it may well be my fault for the first issue: That price, which was seen in SA, only happens rarely and my point was it was during the day. I don't know how often, but if made a wild guess I might say that each state could see that figure or at least five figures up to five times per year, but sometimes not even once in a year! I just happened to look up at the trading screen at that particular moment (we don't have alarm bells, klaxons and cheerleader squads gyrating when such prices occur) and thought it worth mentioning particularly when compared to the other states. There will be a price point at which a gas turbine power station will kick in. I don't know what that point is. When I joined the permanent staff at Millmerran back in 2004 another operator joined us from Oakey power station, which has two open cycle GTs. Back then he said the kick in price was $300 and the previous year they had run only twice! I believe they may have ben paid some "retainer" to be available.

Of course that was seventeen years ago and the dynamics have changed dramatically. In the current climate high wholesale prices are now seen in the evening and through the night, which is the complete opposite to the scenario of years gone by thanks to solar.

The second problem is that while the pricing used to be in half hour segments, it has now gone to five minute segments, which would effectively halve your figures. A typical evening price is about $200/Mwhr. I don't think even a bump to $1000/MWhr a couple of times a week for five minutes would pay the bills, but I certainly have not done any sums as it is too much of an unknown quantity. However, I have to say that if I was an investor I would not be putting any money into a project that had such a limited life span.

One other issue is that the "investors" seem a little bit of a secret and whoever they are were apparently kept in the dark over the approval and government funding. I think a little more information needs to be shared before we get overexcited. As I hinted, it could be an election gambit.

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

$600 million would buy an AWFUL lot of batteries!

or windmills. Or CAES. Or solar.

But no... the government back fossil fuels.

[AlexS]

The announcement of a gas fired station (660MW) at Kurri is interesting.

Hunter Power Project - Snowy Hydro (https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/hunter-power-project/)

There are at least three types of gas fired power station. The first employs a conventional boiler but the fuel source is gas instead of coal. The second two utilise gas turbines. The best option of these is the so-called HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generator) where the exhaust gases of the turbine are fed into a boiler to produce low (usually) pressure steam that powers a conventional turbine/generator. In effect the heat from the waste gases is utilised thus making the unit much more efficient.

The last type is the OCGT (Open Cycle Gas Turbine) which is the least efficient model. It is this last type of installation that is going in to the Kurri plant, if it happens. Apparently the government is contributing $600,000 to the project in conjunction with "stakeholders."

NSW approves Morrison government’s $600m Kurri Kurri gas-fired power plant | Fossil fuels | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/20/nsw-approves-morrison-governments-600m-kurri-kurri-gas-fired-power-plant)

I took this quote in particular as an example of a truth disguising an untruth.

"The federal energy minister, Angus Taylor, said the approval was an “important next step” for the project which aimed “to keep prices low and the lights on while creating jobs in the Hunter region”.

Yes, some jobs would definitely be created during construction ( but very few once operational. Those machines can usually be started from your mobile phone or from a remote location thousands of kilometres away) and it may keep the lights on during periods of high demand, but keeping energy prices low using the most expensive, commercial method of producing electricity known to man? Unlikely.

It may be that the announcement is purely political in a lead up to the federal election (Kurri Kurri is in the seat of Patterson, which while Labour held , had a swing to the Liberals in 2019). As to viability I can't see anything that runs for 2% of the year being a viable proposition.

For a moment there was a glimmer of hope in that it led me to believe the machines were designed to run on hydrogen at some point in the future, presumably when renewable power can generate enough excess power to produce hydrogen, but when I read on it would initially be a 10% H2 capability with maybe 30% at a later date.

Regards
Paul

A politician being careless with the truth? Surely not!

[Bushmiller]

$600 million would buy an AWFUL lot of batteries!

or windmills. Or CAES. Or solar.

But no... the government back fossil fuels.

WP

I am very interested to know more details of these backers/investors. What do they say? Follow the money.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

A politician being careless with the truth? Surely not!

Alex

Apologies and shame on me for suggesting such a thing. I am trying to keep a lid on my cynical side, but it's just not working!

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

I am very interested to know more details of these backers/investors. What do they say? Follow the money.

Are you perhaps hinting our old mates from the Middle Kingdom? :rolleyes:

We make strange bedfellows given our .... disagreements.

[havabeer69]

The announcement of a gas fired station (660MW) at Kurri is interesting.


Yes, some jobs would definitely be created during construction ( but very few once operational. Those machines can usually be started from your mobile phone or from a remote location thousands of kilometres away) and it may keep the lights on during periods of high demand, but keeping energy prices low using the most expensive, commercial method of producing electricity known to man? Unlikely.



yeah i remember reading or hearing something about this a while and I think it was about 10 permanent positions once the place was built (I assume there would be a bit of contracted out labour that goes along with it)

[62woollybugger]

It will be interesting to see if the unions will let it go ahead. About 15 years ago someone tried to build an open cycle gas peaking plant in, I think, Victoria. A lot of the equipment had been ordered & built, then the unions put a green ban on it. It was to be a fast start peaking plant, but the unions would only let it go ahead if it was a combined cycle plant, which takes a lot longer to start up, so the whole project was canned.

[Bushmiller]

It will be interesting to see if the unions will let it go ahead. About 15 years ago someone tried to build an open cycle gas peaking plant in, I think, Victoria. A lot of the equipment had been ordered & built, then the unions put a green ban on it. It was to be a fast start peaking plant, but the unions would only let it go ahead if it was a combined cycle plant, which takes a lot longer to start up, so the whole project was canned.

WB

That set me thinking. Why would that be? Then I realised that 15 years ago the brown coal power stations of Victoria were in full swing. The Unions would have seen it as a threat to the revenue of existing stations and consequently their members. Since that time the extraordinarily dirty Hazelwood has been shut down and the writing is on the wall for Yallourn due to close in 2028 and even Loy Yang is tipped to close around 2030. Those dates, of course, are very flexible and will depend on the economic climate, but apparently some packages are already being offered to staff (probably selected groups and not across the board) to thin down the numbers. In that climate I doubt the unions would have much sway or even much inclination to wield a stick.

I suspect in any event it was something of a muscle flexing exercise all those years ago. You are quite right that the open cycle machines are quicker up to speed and full load, but I think the heat recovery versions can run without the boiler on the back so the GT component would be equally quick. I am not au fait with the GTs so if I have that wrong somebody please correct me. The associated low pressure boiler would take a lot longer to place in service. As soon as you have a boiler with tubes you also have restricted heat rates. The peaking plants need to be capable of starting and loading close to full load in around five minutes.

Regards
Paul

[Chief Tiff]

You are quite right that the open cycle machines are quicker up to speed and full load, but I think the heat recovery versions can run without the boiler on the back so the GT component would be equally quick. I am not au fait with the GTs so if I have that wrong somebody please correct me. The associated low pressure boiler would take a lot longer to place in service. As soon as you have a boiler with tubes you also have restricted heat rates. The peaking plants need to be capable of starting and loading close to full load in around five minutes.

That’s correct for the Condamine Power Station which has a pair of GT’s and a single steam turbine powered by Heat Recovery Steam Generators. The GT exhaust gasses can either go straight up their funnels or diverted through boilers first; but whereas the GT’s only take a few minutes to come up to power the steam turbine takes the best part of a day. At the moment the station is only being used to provide peak power, often only running for a few hours in the evenings so the steam system is under partial preservation and dehydration to prevent corrosion inside the boiler tubes. If it suddenly had to provide baseload it would take an additional two or three hours minimum to remove all the dehydration equipment and refill the boilers with feedwater.

While the GT’s can provide 44MW each; with both running and the HRSG’s online to drive the steam turbine the station gains another 57MW of generation capacity.

[Bushmiller]

Thanks Chief

I thought that was the case, but it is good to have confirmation.

Regards
Paul

[havabeer69]

couple of hours to come on line... wait till you come to an old coal clunker like ours that doesn't even have a turbine bypass valve.

[woodPixel]

Turbine bypass valve!

Man, you need to upgrade to the Hydrodyne supercritical turbopump reciprocating system.

It DOESN'T even have a TBV, as it uses a unique and heinously clever arrangement of six hydrocoptic marzlevanes, fitted laterally to the ambifacient waneshaft.

Probably bolts right on.

See? Dead simple.

[Optimark]

Just finished watching this. I've been following "Engineering with Rosie" for some time now, the latest one is about total costs (almost) for the four major ways we generate electricity in Australia. Rosie's background with regard to electricity generation, is as a wind turbine engineer. As far as I'm aware, she is Melbourne based.

I think I now understand more about the gas part of generation that we apparently need, in order to operate reasonably efficiently during the changeover period.

Renewables vs. Fossil Fuels: The True Cost of Energy - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_BGHy4sfMs)

Mick.

[Bushmiller]

Turbine bypass valve!

Man, you need to upgrade to the Hydrodyne supercritical turbopump reciprocating system.

It DOESN'T even have a TBV, as it uses a unique and heinously clever arrangement of six hydrocoptic marzlevanes, fitted laterally to the ambifacient waneshaft.

Probably bolts right on.

See? Dead simple.

WP

I think we now have a clue as to who grew up watching Star Trek and the like.

:)

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

These new wind farm announcements are now daily --> BlueFloat plans three Australian offshore projects - reNews - Renewable Energy News (https://renews.biz/74535/bluefloat-plans-three-australian-offshore-projects/)

ANOTHER 4.3 GW of wind.


Optimark, that YT video was outstanding. Highly illuminating.


Once again, it clearly shows that utter insanity and contempt this federal government has towards the people. That stupid gas fired plant at Kurri Kurri is an absolute crime.

[woodPixel]

This is very interesting.

One would think its cheaper to keep a coal fired plant open, even if it were fully paid off? Wrong.

It is cheaper, using LCOE, to build a new solar or wind farm. It is CHEAPER to close the coal plant.

SO! Retaining coal is a matter of politics and employment rather than rational economic decisions. So much for the Liberals being "Better economic managers".

Guess they aren't called the COALition for nothing :)

(see 10'40")

https://youtu.be/6_BGHy4sfMs?t=642

[havabeer69]

This is very interesting.

One would think its cheaper to keep a coal fired plant open, even if it were fully paid off? Wrong.

It is cheaper, using LCOE, to build a new solar or wind farm. It is CHEAPER to close the coal plant.

SO! Retaining coal is a matter of politics and employment rather than rational economic decisions. So much for the Liberals being "Better economic managers".

Guess they aren't called the COALition for nothing :)

(see 10'40")

https://youtu.be/6_BGHy4sfMs?t=642


can you link to the projects that have been started... built... and are in service.

SOOOO many of these "renewable" projects end up just as that, a project with D.A consent that never takes off because no one wants to pay for things.


also even in your video above she said using the LCOE graph, wind and solar are the cheapest.... ONLY if their available and it becomes a total moot point if their not. so then they have use some value adjusted one. I don't know why you took that little bit of 10minute video to make your case. @14;47 she even states no one will invest in solar if it is going to flood the market all at the same time and cause prices to go negative.


what the overall pipe dream is:
the government builds all of its own solar, pumped hydro and large scale battery plants
gives the elect out for free (its not really free they will tax you to pay for it)

how ever this is not how our country operates and it relies on businesses to invest in these resources, and unless they can turn a profit not many companies will

[Beardy]

This is very interesting.

One would think its cheaper to keep a coal fired plant open, even if it were fully paid off? Wrong.

It is cheaper, using LCOE, to build a new solar or wind farm. It is CHEAPER to close the coal plant.

SO! Retaining coal is a matter of politics and employment rather than rational economic decisions. So much for the Liberals being "Better economic managers".

Guess they aren't called the COALition for nothing :)

(see 10'40")

https://youtu.be/6_BGHy4sfMs?t=642

That is a very misleading and possibly even useless analysis from what I can see as you are comparing a baseload option with an ancillary one.
The author even acknowledged that the gas turbines have their place in the system or we need to find an alternative option.

I also don’t see the need to politicise these discussions by bagging a particular political party

[Bushmiller]

couple of hours to come on line... wait till you come to an old coal clunker like ours that doesn't even have a turbine bypass valve.

Turbine Bypasses are a very useful feature, but we had better explain for the benefit of those outside the industry. It is a feature that allows warming of the boiler components up to the bypass rated load (40% in our case at Millmerran) without synchronising the turbo/generator to the grid.

However, there are many other factors that come into play for runup times. Our machines from cold may take twenty four hours to come to full load. Kogan Creek the last (and largest) coal fired unit to be built in Australia has a 100% Bypass and run up times significantly faster than us.

"Hot" starts are significantly faster for all concerned.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

That is a very misleading and possibly even useless analysis from what I can see as you are comparing a baseload option with an ancillary one.
The author even acknowledged that the gas turbines have their place in the system or we need to find an alternative option.

I also don’t see the need to politicise these discussions by bagging a particular political party

Beardy

I think the point of her analysis was to explain how the costs associated with renewables, which were once a tremendous barrier to their implementation, are now largely a thing of the past. The pertinent point today is that because they are reliant on weather conditions, primarily wind and sun, they cannot deliver power all the time. So you are correct in that for the moment we are not comparing a "like" product.

I also feel that her comments are fine in theory, but practice shows there are more aspects to consider. She acknowledged that an oversupply of renewables kills the market price through the day in particular to the point where there is a negative price. Clearly that is unsustainable until excess generation can be channeled into storage facilities such as batteries, hydrogen production and pumped hydro to name the most common for the moment. Once a storage facility is added to the primary cost of the renewable source I think there would be a very different picture regarding capitol cost.

There is also the fact that MWs by themselves are not the whole story. The coal fired stations also have to compulsorily provide PFC (primary frequency control), at no cost benefit I might add, to maintain the frequency at 50Hz. The existing renewables are unable to do this, although they could but at a much higher initial cost. I don't know how much extra cost is involved, but certainly enough that solar and wind did not do it. There are additional revenues to be made for the ability to raise and lower load to meet the energy demand. This is another area that is not currently the province of renewables.

As to politicisation I think it is inseparable. It so happens that the Liberal party is the one in power. I doubt the Labour party would be any better. In fact the NSW Labour party was, to my mind, responsible for the privatisation of the electricity industry back in the eighties ( it did not take place then, but they put in place the mechanisms so it could happen and it did!): Something that in my opinion was close to criminal. The current Liberal party is guilty of either perpetuating fossil fuels or appearing to do that. I can accept that we live with what we already have, but to advocate building new facilities is unconscionable.

The only reason I would suggest that politics are only touched upon, instead the demolition job that should happen, is the stance of these Forums, which ordinarily ban politics, and have been pretty tolerant of this thread. Possibly the administrators recognise that separation is difficult. For that reason, if we wish to use this thread to stay up to date on developments, we should use some political restraint.

WP's pun is only outshone by Goff Whitlam's retort to the statement "I'm a Country Member."

Regards
Paul

[Beardy]

Bushmiller whilst I agree with what you have said I just find these type of presentations “ loaded” and bordering on propaganda.

I would much rather they just stick to the unbiased facts

[woodPixel]

Apologies for the politics. You are all correct, I shouldn't have put that. Soz. :2tsup:


On the video, I watched it twice. Front to back. The presenter is not a propagandist/sensationist - she is simply showing us internationally recognised facts and figures.

On investments, the case is clear - Coal is dead.

Not only is it dead, it is economically unsustainable. Storage will come online and once that occurs its game over for coal.

As was clearly stated, once storage is online, it is 100% more economical to CLOSE coal generators, even profitable ones.

Banks won't lend money. Investors won't put a cent into it.


I really DO understand how people can feel hugely confronted and absolutely antagonistic to this change. Peoples livelihoods, incomes, assets, wealth and futures are under direct threat. But, it is inevitable.

It might not be directly relevant, but in IT this state of relentless change has been non-stop. It has burnt out an unholy number of people. Any highly skilled uber-talent is useless 5 years later. I went through this, too many times. One has no choice but to adapt, learn, move, change or leave.

It is, however, pointless arguing with me or others about an absolute inevitability. All the rage in the world will not alter this progression.



(disclosure - I own a good chunk of WHC. This is because of other things that super high-quality coal can be used for other than burning. WHC has the very best coal in the world. They will be the last standing.)

[havabeer69]

.

There is also the fact that MWs by themselves are not the whole story. The coal fired stations also have to compulsorily provide PFC (primary frequency control), at no cost benefit I might add, to maintain the frequency at 50Hz. The existing renewables are unable to do this, although they could but at a much higher initial cost. I don't know how much extra cost is involved, but certainly enough that solar and wind did not do it. There are additional revenues to be made for the ability to raise and lower load to meet the energy demand. This is another area that is not currently the province of renewables.

l

Its actually called fcas now, and you do get paid for it... sometimes more then the MW price

[Bushmiller]

Bushmiller whilst I agree with what you have said I just find these type of presentations “ loaded” and bordering on propaganda.

I would much rather they just stick to the unbiased facts

Beardy

You have reminded me that there were some assertions in Rosie's presentation that I would contend. Before I make mention I would also say that she somewhere said there were a range of values and there was some interactive device at the end where you could plug in different values.

One value she mentioned was the efficiency of coal fired power stations. I think she quoted 28%. Most of the stations remaining in service would be significantly better than 30% and closer to 35%. Millmerran is about 38% efficient just to quote one station. Always with this type of presentation we need to query, if not actually question, the authenticity of so-called facts. I am not even suggesting she has deliberately misled.

Just don't accept anything at face value. Query everything.

Regards
paul

[woodPixel]

Overall, I've found this thread to be highly illuminating.

I find the perspectives of those "on the ground" in the generation factories excellent. I'm also SUPER excited by the changes to come.

Today I tripped over this on a popular-science site. Its a bit airy and arm wave-y but a fascinating read.

The US could reliably run on clean energy by 2050 (https://www.popsci.com/science/clean-grid-renewable-energy-goals/)


This snippet at the beginning piqued my interest....


"One of the biggest concerns with renewables is that they’re intermittent, that wind doesn’t always blow or the sun doesn’t always shine” says Jacobson, who notes that people have claimed this unreliability caused blackouts in California, which relies heavily on renewables–and in Texas, which doesn’t. “So we wanted to test this contention."

[Bushmiller]

Its actually called fcas now, and you do get paid for it... sometimes more then the MW price

haveabeer69 is in the industry so really much of the following is information for those of us that just "use" electricity.

The various compulsory requirements and the ancillary services available to generators are something that does my head in. They are getting more and more convoluted and the control of these devices is becoming tighter and tighter. By this, I mean even a slight deviation from the bid is penalised.

Primary Frequency Control or PFC ( AEMO call it Primary Frequency Response :rolleyes:) is compulsory for most "traditional" generators and not only is it a requirement of generation, without recompense, we are penalised if we deviate from the target. Some information on this can be found here:

AEMO | Primary frequency response (https://www.aemo.com.au/initiatives/major-programs/primary-frequency-response)

There are indeed a range of ancillary services for which generators are paid and, as haveabeer says, in extreme circumstances could be more than the revenue from MWs! But not very often.

For anybody that is brave enough to wade through the blurb, here is some more information:

Market Ancillary Services Specification - v6.0 effective 1 Jul 2020 (aemo.com.au) (https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/stakeholder_consultation/consultations/nem-consultations/2020/primary-freq-resp-norm-op-conditions/market-ancillary-services-specification---v60.pdf?la=en&hash=4E46BE456C8D1DEAF12D0FF922DE4DBA)

The ability to participate in these ancillary services (there are six bands available) depends a lot on the response time capability of the particular generator. Also, participation is again by a bidding process so if you are outbid by another generator, you don't get the opportunity to play at all and share in the proceeds. :(

Another problem in understanding the vagaries of the system to my mind is that there seems to be a lack of continuity in what these various pricing schemes are called. We call this last lot "Reg Services," which is short for Regulation Services. This confusion, I think, is because the market rules have evolved in dynamic fashion and are constantly being modified, ostensibly to bring generators into a reasonable line and prevent manipulation of the market. Whether it is Ancillary Services, Primary Frequency Control, Regulation Services or FCAS, they are all mechanisms that respond to the market demand for electricity (up or down) and in so doing maintain the frequency as close to 50Hz as possible in Australia.

Regards
Paul

[havabeer69]

its actually kind of funny,

some time ago, base load generators (really the ones that can't turn off an on in a hurry) used to make alot of their profit during the day. all the industries where running people churned through their air cons etc etc

but renewables (mainly solar) are now pushing this demand down, and in some cases so far down that the elect price goes negative. This is going to the biggest ham string to renewables... no one is going to build a multi-million dollar renewable project if the only time they can really generate is during the day when the prices are so low they will never see a return on investment. but on the other hand coal generators are actually starting to turn a slight profit during the evening and night as the solar drops off which is the total opposite to how the used to make their money

[Bushmiller]

its actually kind of funny,

some time ago, base load generators (really the ones that can't turn off an on in a hurry) used to make alot of their profit during the day. all the industries where running people churned through their air cons etc etc

but renewables (mainly solar) are now pushing this demand down, and in some cases so far down that the elect price goes negative. This is going to the biggest ham string to renewables... no one is going to build a multi-million dollar renewable project if the only time they can really generate is during the day when the prices are so low they will never see a return on investment. but on the other hand coal generators are actually starting to turn a slight profit during the evening and night as the solar drops off which is the total opposite to how the used to make their money

haveabeer

You are absolutely right there. The dynamic has been totally reversed. In fact we were discussing these aspects the other day. We worked on Christmas night and Boxing Day night and, thankfully, it was uneventful (a catastrophe on such occasions really is the pits :() and we spent a good deal of the twelve hour shift putting the world to rights. :wink: One topic that arose was the wholesale price for power, particularly in South Australia. As we have discussed on this thread before, SA has the largest percentage of renewables compared to their demand and are the closest to being self sufficient. I have to assert again that this self sufficiency is only with the right set of conditions (low demand, bright sunshine and good wind) and then only for a relatively short period, but at least they have achieved this small milestone ahead of the other states. So I am not knocking their achievement.

However, the corollary to this is that wholesale prices during the day are often very low and frequently go negative for long periods of time: At a glance it is difficult to imagine how the existing solar generators can make any money and even more difficult to see new players entering the market as haveabeer has pointed out. Added to this, the prices through the dark and windless hours are high, again, as one might imagine. Just for a little amusement, and to pander those of us who like pictures, I quickly took a snapshot of the current demand and prices (remember this price band only lasts for five minutes) also remembering that between Xmas and the New year demand is low.

505597

What we tend to forget is that we are only looking at the spot price. Every station has contracts in place at fixed prices. These contracts are confidential and probably quite variable from station to station. They are also in place for varying periods of time, but not normally short term. Six months is likely a minimum length. I must point out that I am completely guessing here as even at our station in Millmerran I am not told what percentage of our exported power is under contract. It is absolutely confidential. It seems likely that at coal fired stations contracts could be up to half the station capacity if it is a two unit station, two thirds for a three unit station and three quarters for a four unit station. This could be slightly modified if more than one station is owned by the same company. My reasoning here is that if one unit has to come offline you still have to honour the contracts and this power has to be bought from the spot market if you are unable to produce that power yourself. Consequently, in principle, you sell contracts to allow one unit off line in an unscheduled event. Ok, you lose production for that unit, but at least you don't have to buy back from the market at an elevated price (the price goes up because your generator is cactus).

The solar companies may not have the same level of restrictions as short of a meteor striking the array it is not really likely they will suffer a calamity affecting more than a handful of panels (lightning strike could be a scenario I suppose and another might be a vicious hailstorm). Consequently they may well have a much higher percentage of their power under contract. Their contracts would be vastly different to those of the fossil fuelled stations as they would be limited to the sunny hours and their biggest issue is a cloudy day. It may well be that the negative daytime prices affect only a very small amount of their available generation with the bulk being under fixed contract. It probably means that the rooftop solar, which is not at this stage easily switched off, and the commercial solar (also commercial wind) under contract is coping almost completely with the demand.

I stress that all this is supposition on my part, but something along these lines has to be the case. What it does emphasise is that renewable power has, just like traditional power, to go hand in hand with demand. As demand steps up so will renewable installations. We are fast approaching saturation until viable (I emphasise viable) solutions to electricity storage are found. Then we will see an exponential rise in the likes of solar and wind power. To remove fossil fired power we will need upwards of five times the amount of generation capacity we currently enjoy.

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

Hmmm.

I can buy bananas during the day for 0.00 cents each, or even get PAID $31.06, put them in my truck, then sell them for 23 cents each after 8pm.

I only wish there were a technology or business plan that might sit behind this....

:D


Edit - having a bit of fun. I'm a huge fan of CAES and battery. I've invested in both and think they complete a big hole in the puzzle. I also agree with BushMiller and others.... there is a big problem with the transition and shambolic haphazard jamb-ins give nobody any comfort... especially those businesses that need reliable power and home users with rely on it.

Edit 2 - Last night I watched Don't Look Up (https://www.netflix.com/au/title/81252357) on Netflix. Brilliant movie. Brilliant... this article this morning on The Guardian: I’m a climate scientist. Don’t Look Up captures the madness I see every day | Peter Kalmus | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/29/climate-scientist-dont-look-up-madness)

[Bushmiller]

As a little bit of an aside I thought I might address the issue of the nukes. In many ways it would be the absolute answer to replacing fossil fuels so why has it not happened and why does there continue to be resistance?

To step back a little, the article that I saw today was what prompted this post:

Explainer-Wall of ice at Fukushima's crippled nuclear plant (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/us/explainer-wall-of-ice-at-fukushima-s-crippled-nuclear-plant/ar-AAT7ddO?ocid=msedgntp)

The Fukushima clean up continues....

It is not the first time of course, that a nuclear disaster has reared it's nucleonic head and we all remember Chernobyl. Which of us remembers Three Mile Island incident in 1979? TMI-2 actually had the potential to be the worst in history. I did read a while back ( but can't now find the article) that it was about thirty seconds off being another Chernobyl/Fukushima or worse as it was close to a populated area and on a river.

Three Mile Island accident - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Mile_Island_accident)

The clean up took twelve years and cost $1b and that was last century prices!

Backgrounder On The Three Mile Island Accident | NRC.gov (https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/3mile-isle.html)

To be fair, the unit was an older style PWR (Pressurised Water reactor), but not the oldest, which are BWR (Boiling Water Reactors) and more modern units may well be more reliable

While proponents of nuclear power from time to time suggest we should revisit the possibilities, to my mind, these are the barriers in no particular order of importance except for the last one, which I think is the real killer.

1. Very expensive to build (probably three times the cost of a an equivalent fossil fuelled station).
2. Very expensive to maintain (There is no margin for error)
3. Until recently have only suited larger installations
4. Easily mined fuel is beginning to diminish. That might not be an issue with fast breeder reactors.
5. Problem of location. Nobody wants one in their backyard and remote location becomes a non-starter because of transmission costs.
6. Nobody builds nuclear power plants without atomic weaponry aspirations. Admittedly there is a big gap between enrichment for power (4%-6%) and enrichment for bombs (>94%).
7. De-commissioning costs are huge.
8. Any mis-hap is potentially more serious than at any other type of power plant (with the possible exception of a storage dam failing at a hydro plant)
9. Nobody has found a satisfactory solution to the disposal of the spent nuclear fuel.

The last point is, I think, the final stumbling block. Only France ( I think 70% of their power is nuclear) seems happy to "collect" waste. An engineering friend recently suggested to me that the French are doing this so that at some point in the future, when technology is such that they can reuse the so-called "spent" fuel, they will have an abundant fuel source: I don't know about that (BobL. Any thoughts?)

Regards
Paul

[NeilS]

8. Any mis-hap is potentially more serious than at any other type of power plant (with the possible exception of a storage dam failing at a hydro plant)
9. Nobody has found a satisfactory solution to the disposal of the spent nuclear fuel.



I know that my BiL, who is a geophysicist and earthquake specialist, has been involved with both the geo-engineering for nuclear plants and also dams. The large water supply storage dams, many of which were sited over a century ago in areas that now have large populations downstream, are probably more of a concern.

The hydro dams are mostly located in more remote areas away from population centre. The Warragamba & Wivenhoe (that are both supply and hydro) are the exception there. See hydro location map in following link...

Hydro Power Stations in Australia | State Guide - Canstar Blue (https://www.canstarblue.com.au/electricity/hydro-power-australia/)


South Australia, which has the largest uranium deposit in the world, is the state that is most likely to go down the nuclear path for various reasons. However, we are also the state that has gone the furthest down the renewables path.

I don't think we are going to see anything more here than us taking back the spent nuclear fuel for storage from the customers that buy our uranium, plus a few nuclear subs docked down at the port, along with whatever that might entail.

Nuclear industry in South Australia - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_industry_in_South_Australia)

[Bushmiller]

South Australia, which has the largest uranium deposit in the world, is the state that is most likely to go down the nuclear path for various reasons. However, we are also the state that has gone the furthest down the renewables path.



Neil

That is an interesting juxtaposition, which under the right circumstances could pose the perfect solution to resolving greenhouse warming from burning fossil fuels. However, for the moment, I don't see it figuring in realistic outcomes.

:(

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

Pebble-bed reactor - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pebble-bed_reactor)

China's high temperature reactor - pebble bed modular (HTR-PM) achieves its first criticality - Atomic Insights (https://atomicinsights.com/chinas-high-temperature-reactor-pebble-bed-modular-htr-pm-achieves-its-first-criticality/)

China puts pioneering '&#39;'pebble bed'&#39;' nuclear reactor into operation | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-puts-pioneering-pebble-bed-nuclear-reactor-into-operation-2021-12-20/)

[woodPixel]

https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1485977349669769219


China just built more offshore wind capacity, in 2021 alone, than the rest of the world had managed in the last 5yrs put together

Its 26GW now accounts for half of the world's 54GW total

Also, it added twice as much in 2021 as IEA had forecast in…December 2021

506743 506744

[Bushmiller]

Pebble-bed reactor - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pebble-bed_reactor)

China's high temperature reactor - pebble bed modular (HTR-PM) achieves its first criticality - Atomic Insights (https://atomicinsights.com/chinas-high-temperature-reactor-pebble-bed-modular-htr-pm-achieves-its-first-criticality/)

China puts pioneering '''pebble bed''' nuclear reactor into operation | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-puts-pioneering-pebble-bed-nuclear-reactor-into-operation-2021-12-20/)

WP

Thanks for the links. From reading it seems that the few current installations are pilot plants and the Chinese are pretty good at promoting these even when they are not really viable (Carbon Capture plants are a good example of this). However, I have no information on how commercially viable Pebble Bed Reactors are.

One problem I do foresee from the Wikipedia link is this:


"Waste handling[edit (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Pebble-bed_reactor&action=edit&section=8)]Since the fuel is contained in graphite pebbles, the volume of radioactive waste (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radioactive_waste) is much greater, but contains about the same radioactivity (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radioactivity) when measured in becquerels (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Becquerel) per kilowatt-hour. The waste tends to be less hazardous and simpler to handle.[citation needed (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed)] Current US legislation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legislation) requires all waste to be safely contained, therefore pebble-bed reactors would increase existing storage problems. Defects in the production of pebbles may also cause problems. The radioactive waste must either be safely stored for many human generations, typically in a deep geological repository (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_geological_repository), reprocessed, transmuted (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_transmutation) in a different type of reactor, or disposed of by some other alternative method yet to be devised. The graphite pebbles are more difficult to reprocess due to their construction,[citation needed (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed)] which is not true of the fuel from other types of reactors.[ci (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed)"


In other words, the perennial problem of waste disposal.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1485977349669769219



506743 506744

WP

That is impressive by any standards. Maybe something to do with the single-minded, dictatorial regime, their own resources and a population that is four to five times the size of the largest Western nation.

Regards
Paul

[Chris Parks]

Some stats that come out of China are just mind blowing, a bit off topic but interesting is they build more than 5,000 electric buses a MONTH.

[BobL]

WP

That is impressive by any standards. Maybe something to do with the single-minded, dictatorial regime, . . . . . . . l


Reminds me of a dinner I attended in Beijing in 2005 hosted by a Chinese Govt ministry. There were 30 or so internationals and we were spread about 2 or so per table across about 15 tables. Each table seated 8-10 people so the remainder at each table were chinese. It was all very friendly and there was lots of drinking and fantastic food. I sat next to young Chinese guy who wore black jeans, T-shirt and a black dinner jacket sans tie, ie fairly trendy. He was constantly on his mobile, often speaking excellent english. At one point the table was discussing various forms of Government and the young bloke chipped in. "Democracy is fine but if you want to get something done then a single party state is much better, if we decide to do something we can start it today".

[Glider]

Singapore has voted the same party into power since its break from Malaysia and they certainly get things done. The question in Australia is which team is worthy? IMO, none of them.

Alan Finkel's recent Quarterly essay about the transition to sustainable energy answered a lot of questions for me. It's remarkably well written.

mick

[Bushmiller]

I saw a headline:

Nuclear fusion breakthrough opens door to clean and near limitless energy (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/techandscience/nuclear-fusion-breakthrough-opens-door-to-clean-and-near-limitless-energy/ar-AATEv3b?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531)
and thought to myself, could they have cracked it?

Eh...No, not quite

This is an exert from the article linked above and highlights the incredible hurdle that has to be overcome for this technology to become feasible:

"Temperatures of more than 100 million Celsius are required to fuse together atomic nuclei and generate the release of energy. No material on earth can withstand direct exposure to such high levels of heat.

Because of this, the JET scientists have constructed a doughnut-shaped magnetic field that holds in place the fusion reaction’s “fuel” – the hydrogen atoms deuterium and tritium – which goes on to form a highly ionised cloud of gas called plasma."

Regards
Paul

[NeilS]

I saw a headline:

Nuclear fusion breakthrough opens door to clean and near limitless energy (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/techandscience/nuclear-fusion-breakthrough-opens-door-to-clean-and-near-limitless-energy/ar-AATEv3b?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531)

and thought to myself, could they have cracked it?

Eh...No, not quite



And, it isn't a new problem they are trying to solve. My FiL, who was a plasma physicist, was working on the 'magnetic bottle' problem over 50yrs ago. Perhaps it will be another half century before fusion becomes a practical solution for abundant clean and cheap energy, a little too late for net zero in 2050.

[woodPixel]

Nope. Its solved.

The 5 second wind up was proof of concept.

The magnetic constraints are uncooled copper so they overheat very quickly. This was known.

A 5 second operation proves it works. They could have run it for 5 minutes, 5 hours or 5 days. The reaction was sustainable.

The ITER (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER) overcomes the magnetic cooling issue by using ... cooling (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER#Cooling_systems):)


I've been following ITER very closely and this is very exciting news. Its as good as done.

ITER will be a colossal win for all of us.



Once ITER starts pumping, the designs will be flicked out and everyone will want a few :)

Very exciting!



EDIT - What wasnt included in the OPs MSN link was the video! It is awesome.... turn up the sound! :)


https://www.bbc.com/news/av-embeds/60312634

[BobL]

I forget how many "fusion breakthru" seminars/lectures etc I attended over 40 years on this topic when I was working, and I still I reckon I'll be long gone off this planet before anything useful comes out of fusion power. Its obvious scientists will always keep saying positive things about their research- its' so they can get more money for their pet projects. It's a game we all encouraged to played at work - this thing is bigger than sliced bread Yada Yada . . . . ..

FWIW I hope it never works because IMHO like any centralised power (political or electrical power) its inherently evil in that it favours bureaucrats and cashed up fat cats.

I'll be interested when they make a fusion reactor that is about the size of a small rubbish bin and runs off banana skins and long life milk cartons.

[woodPixel]

I'll be interested when they make a fusion reactor that is about the size of a small rubbish bin and runs off banana skins and long life milk cartons.


https://youtu.be/ptlhgFaB89Y

[woodPixel]

What is renewable energy curtailment and how does it affect rooftop solar? - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2022-02-16/solar-how-is-it-affected-by-renewable-energy-curtailment/100830738)

A Good read.

Now, if ONLY there were a way to store all that cheap excess/generated electricity to be sold off when its expensive..... :roll::roll: