Future of the Australian Electricity Market

[BobL]

Couple of things, and apologies if they have already been mentioned.

To reduce power loss this sort of transmission is done as Super High V DC (millions of V) where the current travels across the surface of rather than through the conductor so standard AC trans does not apply. Conductors can be a lot smaller than AC Trans.

Solar is nominally 300W per square meter at the earths surface so 6 GW would require 20 million sqm or 20 sqkm which allowing for access spacing is about a 5 km by 5km array.
An area of 10,000 sqkm (100 x 100 km) could theoretically power all of the USA.
Doing this in one giant array would be impractical (grid issues, available land, spreading the solar accretion across longitudes, etc) but 400, 25 sqkm arrays might be do-able.
Of course you wouldn't do it all by solar but use a diversity of methods including where the sun don't shine much using nuclear.

RE: Nuclear E in Australia - I used to be a cautious promoter of NE (I even did my PhD on feasibility of long term NE waste disposal) until I saw what the Govt did with the NBN - if they can't get this relatively simple thing done half right do we really want to trust them with NE?

[Bushmiller]

Couple of things, and apologies if they have already been mentioned.

To reduce power loss this sort of transmission is done as Super High V DC (millions of V) where the current travels across the surface of rather than through the conductor so standard AC trans does not apply. Conductors can be a lot smaller than AC Trans.

Solar is nominally 300W per square meter at the earths surface so 6 GW would require 20 million sqm or 20 sqkm which allowing for access spacing is about a 5 km by 5km array.
An area of 10,000 sqkm (100 x 100 km) could theoretically power all of the USA.
Doing this in one giant array would be impractical (grid issues, available land, spreading the solar accretion across longitudes, etc) but 400, 25 sqkm arrays might be do-able.
Of course you wouldn't do it all by solar but use a diversity of methods including where the sun don't shine much using nuclear.

RE: Nuclear E in Australia - I used to be a cautious promoter of NE (I even did my PhD on feasibility of long term NE waste disposal) until I saw what the Govt did with the NBN - if they can't get this relatively simple thing done half right do we really want to trust them with NE?

Thanks Bob for this input.

One of the disadvantages of solar is in fact the vast area it requires to replace equivalent thermal power and is only second in the fatal flaw stakes to when the sun doesn't shine at all. The advantage of a DC conductor has not been broached on this thread at all so that is completely new information for us.

As far as nukes are concerned, an accident there can easily become a catastrophe from which there is no return. I know this area of physics is your domain and anything you care to share with us is welcomed.

The government (any and all of them) seem reluctant to enter the electricity stakes so fortunately we won't be treated to their mis-management and I feel that in the Australian market there will be a dearth of private investors.

Thanks again.

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

Thanks Paul. My objection to nuclear is less about safety and more about cost (if it's expensive elsewhere, then given we have virtually no one here with a nuclear tech skills it'll be WAAAY more expensive for Australians - haven't we learnt that yet ?). I also have major objections on a philosophical level that NE is yet another highly centralised form of utility. My preference is that where possible, if consumers are able to meet some of their own demands then they be left to do it as they will take more notice of their usage and generation and react accordingly.

It's interesting that the proponents of nuclear are often supporters of freedom of choice and an individual lifestyle. If they were true to their own philosophy they would be putting in place subsidies and policies that would heavily favour things like small scale renewables etc. NE is not like this - it's a huge long term financial and potential millstone around the neck (especially) of societies that take it on from scratch.

NE can have a very important role to play in places when the sun don't shine much for half the year and where there little available land and is a high population density. This is not Australia.

As for the area usage problem I dont think were trying hard enough. Multi use of areas covered by solar collectors is poorly researched but appears highly possible as the ground underneath collector is cooler and protected by the collectors. There is also a lot of solar infill that has yet to take place with only about 20% of homes in my (older) street having any solar.

Meanwhile whenever I can I put all my excess (5kW) solar into my EV battery. I'm charging the EV almost exclusively at home and after some 5 months of ownership I note my solar produced about 60% of all my needs (ie home and EV) in July. During October the solar produced about 120% of my needs although about 40% is produced when I am not at home so that gets exported. In Dec-Jan the over production will be even higher but most of that will be soaked up by AC use. I am currently exploring gizmos to better align EV charging to come just from solar.

FWIW the new Tesla Cybertruck being released in a couple of weeks (not yet in Oz unfortunately) will come with a 240V outlet to provide up to 11kW of power to be drawn from the large battery. This would easily allow for a decent sized welder or machinery to be operated remotely eg on a remote worksite. There is no word about it being "vehicle to home" compatible.

[FenceFurniture]

FWIW the new Tesla Cybertruck being released in a couple of weeks (not yet in Oz unfortunately) will come with a 240V outlet to provide up to 11kW of power to be drawn from the large battery. This would easily allow for a decent sized welder or machinery to be operated remotely eg on a remote worksite.How would the battery go with the amperage required for a welder?

[Bushmiller]

NE can have a very important role to play in places when the sun don't shine much for half the year and where there little available land and is a high population density. This is not Australia.

As for the area usage problem I dont think were trying hard enough. Multi use of areas covered by solar collectors is poorly researched but appears highly possible as the ground underneath collector is cooler and protected by the collectors. There is also a lot of solar infill that has yet to take place with only about 20% of homes in my (older) street having any solar.



Bob

I agree that the Aussie situation in terms of resources is vastly different to so many other places in the World. Space and population being the foremost of these differences. We are the 6th largest country and the 55th largest population, which is great for some things and diabolical for others.

I am still waiting for solar panels, and ideally batteries too, to become mandatory on new house builds in the same way that in many areas it is mandatory to connect a water tank on new builds. That should also extend to commercial and multi-story buildings. For the moment, storage is the area where we are falling so far behind.

Regards
Paul

[Mr Brush]

Tesla Cybertruck - an abject lesson in what happens if the design team are too scared of their boss (Mr Muskrat in this case) to pipe up and say "I wouldn't do that if I were you". Almost unmanufacturable (by Tesla's own admission), not to mention setting new standards for fugly. The perfect storm.

[FenceFurniture]

...not to mention setting new standards for fugly.Muskrat or the Cybertruck?

[BobL]

How would the battery go with the amperage required for a welder?


A 240V 15A (3.6kW) welder might output 200A of welding current but it wont be at 240V, but more like 18V. That's what a welder does - it (the transformer and the arc) converts 250/15 into 18/200.

It will be a significant draw on the car battery but the battery is designed for much large current draws.

On a flat smooth road with no wind, my EV uses about 165 W/km which at 100 km/hr means it burns 16.5kW/hr for about 4 hours this means the battery delivers 16.5 kW continuously which at 400V is 41A continuous, 11kW through a 240V port is going to be a doddle for the bigger battery that will be in the CyberTruck.

[BobL]

Tesla Cybertruck - an abject lesson in what happens if the design team are too scared of their boss (Mr Muskrat in this case) to pipe up and say "I wouldn't do that if I were you". Almost unmanufacturable (by Tesla's own admission), not to mention setting new standards for fugly. The perfect storm.

With 1.9 million preorders at US$400 a pop that's a free loan of US$760 million for Mr Muskrat. I'd say he laughing all the way to the bank. OK, how many of those orders are going to be actually filled is another question. The latest is that a couple of hundred will be finally available at the end of this month, but I'll believe it when I see it. I don't like Mr Muskrat either but I reckon he (or rather his team) have done more to push EV development than anyone else on the planet so at least I'll give him that.

As for ugly, i call it different, and certainly no uglier that most oversize US pickups.

[Mr Brush]

As the advertisement says "Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Get it out - with Optrex Eye Drops"....

I'll be waiting for the heavily armed rednecks in the US to start taking pot shots at passing Tesla Cybertrucks to see just how "bulletproof" they really are. :oo:

[GraemeCook]

... not to mention setting new standards for fugly. ....

Is it ugly, or just weird and impractical?

[Mr Brush]

Overall, a bit......Musky?? :rolleyes:

He's overlooked the fact that most people want to look cool driving their cars/trucks, not dorky. The last stainless steel car with unpainted panels I can remember was the DeLorean, and we know how well that went !

There are quite a few sensible and practical EV utes close to hitting the market (not sure if we'll ever see the Rivian R1 ute here), but Elon will have the "kooky" market segment all to himself.

[BobL]

Overall, a bit......Musky?? :rolleyes:

He's overlooked the fact that most people want to look cool driving their cars/trucks, not dorky. The last stainless steel car with unpainted panels I can remember was the DeLorean, and we know how well that went !

Deloreans were rated as in the top 50 worst cars ever made but interestingly of the 9500 Deloreans built in teh early 1980s some 6500 were still on the road in 2015.

DeLorean lacked many of the advantages that Mr Musk has with his SS approach. These days SS is 1/10th of the price it was back in the 1980's. Mr Musk also buys it by the 10,000 ton lots for his space X rockets so he get it even cheaper. The Delorean also had a 0-60 mph of between 8.5 and 10.5s the Cybertruck will be between <3 and 4 secs so red necks wont be able to contain themselves one they get creamed at the lights a few times by these things.

The Delorean gullwing doors lives on in other higher end sports cars and the Tesla Model X and while these doors are not my cup of tea either these vehicles are still selling reasonably well.

[Bushmiller]

The Delorean gullwing doors lives on in other higher end sports cars and the Tesla Model X and while these doors are not my cup of tea either these vehicles are still selling reasonably well.

Bob

Interestingly, the gullwing door, as first seen on the Mercedes 300SL, was introduced (back in 1954!) because conventional doors would have lacked sufficient rigidity in that chassis design. I don't know how they got around the issue a few years later with the roadster. With the gullwings, it is important not to park too close to a wall or even another vehicle if you intend alighting from the vehicle.

Having said that, they do look pretty cool.

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

Bob

Interestingly, the gullwing door, as first seen on the Mercedes 300SL, was introduced (back in 1954!) because conventional doors would have lacked sufficient rigidity in that chassis design. I don't know how they got around the issue a few years later with the roadster. With the gullwings, it is important not to park too close to a wall or even another vehicle if you intend alighting from the vehicle.

Having said that, they do look pretty cool.

Regards
Paul


The Tesla Model X gull (or Falcon) wing doors are a marvel of engineering.
They have a bunch of sensors that prevent them opening or closing, if stuff is in the way and they significantly reduce rain ingress onto seats when getting i/out of the vehicle.
Check this out
Model X Falcon Wing Door Demo - YouTube (https://youtube.com/shorts/8kFnlTBFfyM?si=UpfjQ36bWFONq3hC)
Suggest Turning the sound off as the wind noise is awful in that video.

[FenceFurniture]

Model X Falcon Wing Door Demo - YouTube (https://youtube.com/shorts/8kFnlTBFfyM?si=UpfjQ36bWFONq3hC)That's very impressive. I wish Muskrat could be closed off that easily.

[Mr Brush]

Marvel of engineering they may be, but: Here's What Makes The Tesla Model X So Unreliable (https://www.topspeed.com/what-makes-tesla-model-x-unreliable/)

A solution to a problem that didn't exist? I note that total sales of Model X are tiny in comparison to the better Tesla products, like your Model Y.

Some have questioned why they still bother making Model S and Model X, when Model 3 and Model Y are where the action is.

[BobL]

Marvel of engineering they may be, but: Here's What Makes The Tesla Model X So Unreliable (https://www.topspeed.com/what-makes-tesla-model-x-unreliable/)

A solution to a problem that didn't exist? I note that total sales of Model X are tiny in comparison to the better Tesla products, like your Model Y.

Some have questioned why they still bother making Model S and Model X, when Model 3 and Model Y are where the action is.

The S and X are quite a bit more (2.25X) expensive than the 3 and Y models but they have a lot more room and they have the ludicrous performance (sub 2s 0-60mph for the S.)

They also don't import the S and X into some countries like Australia.
I would have considered getting a basic level X if they were available here.

The other very important reason models S and X are made is so mr Musk can claim he sells S3XY CARS.
A is likely to be a sub $40k compact currently being designed
R is the Roadster.
The second S is the Semitrailer.
Yes he's a nutter but he's a nutter laughing all the way to the banks.

[FenceFurniture]

The other very important reason models S and X are made is so mr Musk can claim he sells S3XY CARS.
A is likely to be a sub $40k compact currently being designed
R is the Roadster.
The second S is the Semitrailer.
Yes he's a nutter but he's a nutter laughing all the way to the banks.I hesitate to ask given who we are talking about, but what is the "C" for?

[BobL]

I hesitate to ask given who we are talking about, but what is the "C" for?

S = Model S https://www.tesla.com/models
E = https://www.tesla.com/en_au/model3 was going to be model E but he desired that to messy things up and made it model 3. Something about the E-type Jag name
X = Model X https://www.tesla.com/modelx
Y = https://www.tesla.com/en_au/modely

C = Cybertruck https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck
A = supposedly the next sub AUS$40K vehicle
R = Roadster , https://www.tesla.com/roadster
S = Semi https://www.tesla.com/semi

[Bushmiller]

If there was not a threat of climate change and the need to rationalise the way we generate electricity, this thread would not have eventuated. The direction of the Australian electricity market is really a small part of the global picture. There are only a few diehards that deny the climate is warming, although quite a few more who deny that mankind is hugely responsible for tipping us over the edge. If it did not impact us in our everyday lives, we would probably accept it without a qualm.

I mention this as background to an article that came through a news feed highlighting Taylor Swifts's concert in Brazil's Rio de Janeiro.

Footage captures Taylor Swift 'gasping for breath' (thenewdaily.com.au) (https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/life/entertainment/celebrity/2023/11/20/taylor-swift-brazil-breathing?ahe=df367c01cfb5ffd84b418a037b7b8a99122b184b2f77914ecd0b3985af301fd5&utm_medium=email&lr_hash=&acid=4161031&utm_source=Adestra&utm_campaign=PM%20Extra%20-%2020231120)

I saw what I thought were reports of temperatures greater than 57°C!!! It is in fact a heat index, which is a composite figure comprising temperature and humidity. I had not heard of this term before, but probably really demonstrates that I should get out more.

When I looked further, the temperature was actually only (:rolleyes:) nudging 40°C (104°F). Still plenty hot enough for the end of Spring. We have already had 37°C (blood temperature?) where I live but not with high humidity, which literally becomes the real killer. I thought it interesting that this heat index was adopted, presumably to heighten the impact. Just another aspect to be wary of when quoting statistics.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

Marvel of engineering they may be, but: Here's What Makes The Tesla Model X So Unreliable (https://www.topspeed.com/what-makes-tesla-model-x-unreliable/)
...

Or a triumph of marketing over crap engineering?

[GraemeCook]

... I saw what I thought were reports of temperatures greater than 57°C!!! It is in fact a heat index, which is a composite figure comprising temperature and humidity. I had not heard of this term before, but probably really demonstrates that I should get out more. ...

Surely not in those conditions. Paul.

[Bushmiller]

OK Graeme, you've talked me out of it.

Phew!!

Regards
Paul

[Chris Parks]

For those enthusiastic to use cars (Hi Brett) as a stored energy source overnight there is one small problem, car batteries are rated for x number of charging cycles so using a BEV for storage every night is going to reduce the battery cycles available to drive the car.

[FenceFurniture]

For those enthusiastic to use cars (Hi Brett) as a stored energy source overnight there is one small problem, car batteries are rated for x number of charging cycles so using a BEV for storage every night is going to reduce the battery cycles available to drive the car.Yes. However, as was shown some months ago (in this thread) the replacement cost of Mr B's BYD Atto battery rack is about $15k, around the same cost as a musky Powerwall, 'cept it's 3-4x the capacity, making it 25-33% of the price of a Powerwall.

Whatever you use (1x or 2x batteries) they are both going to wear out, just like the vehicle they are in, and just like the driver :D, so save the initial *rather high* investment of a Powerwall, and just put one battery in place. It's life will be shortened by using it as V2H, but it beats the hell out of investing in two battery systems. Notwithstanding Bob's very valid comment way back about needing some kind of 1/10 capacity battery being in place on the home system all the time to cope with outages and the like while the car is out shopping or whatever (presumably with an occupant).

However, I do think the whole battery landscape will change significantly when solid state batteries are a happening thing (1-2 years?). We are in a very transient developmental situation currently. It's a space to watch.

[Chris Parks]

I will give you the real cost of supplying and fitting a new BYD vehicle battery in a few days. Do you take into account the depreciation of the car due to less re-charge cycles available. Master Parks re-charges once a week (7 days), if it was done every night how long would the battery last for and how much would it accelerate the depreciation of the vehicle?

[FenceFurniture]

I will give you the real cost of supplying and fitting a new BYD vehicle battery in a few days. Do you take into account the depreciation of the car due to less re-charge cycles available. Master Parks re-charges once a week (7 days), if it was done every night how long would the battery last for and how much would it accelerate the depreciation of the vehicle?No, not really. Mr Brush said it was about $15k to replace the BYD battery, and a Tesla Powerwall is a similar price, but about 25% of the capacity.

So if the BYD battery wears out in say five years instead of ten, it sounds like you'd be ahead. Mind you, can't be done until V2H is up and running.

[Bushmiller]

One of the main objections to EVs is the time taken to refuel. So does Nio's battery swap eradicate this objection?

Watch Nio EL7 Instantly Swap Its Battery In POV Video (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/watch-nio-el7-instantly-swap-its-battery-in-pov-video/ar-AA1ktWJp?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=206aaaec90fe4b888f96e175021b3726&ei=31)

I am relying on some of the technology minded among you as without a mobile or a Tik-Tok account I am unable to watch and I am hoping somebody can comment. My take is that unlike the promos by manufacturers, this one is from the user's perspective. It leads me to believe it takes about 3mins, which would be less than the time taken to refuel an ICE.

Sounds good. Is it? Not available in Oz yet, of course.

Regards
Paul

[Warb]

One of the main objections to EVs is the time taken to refuel. So does Nio's battery swap eradicate this objection?

Battery swapping was my suggestion of "the obvious solution" when EV's were first discussed years ago. You buy the car, and "rent" a battery with ongoing swaps for small recharging fees. It speeds up the refuelling process and removes the sudden large cost of replacing dying batteries. Done sensibly it would also allow batteries of different sizes, so you don't have to drag around a large battery (500kg to 900kg+) unless you are going on a long trip - most of the time you can use a small lightweight battery for city driving. Unfortunately such a system would require all the manufacturers of EV's to use a common standard, and that requires them to believe that the ongoing increase in EV sales is more profitable than selling a battery as part of the car to start with. It might also require them to share technology, and perhaps make it easier for new manufacturers to enter the market. So overall in our current market it probably wouldn't be a popular choice for the manufacturers!

[BobL]

Battery swapping was my suggestion of "the obvious solution" when EV's were first discussed years ago. You buy the car, and "rent" a battery with ongoing swaps for small recharging fees. It speeds up the refuelling process and removes the sudden large cost of replacing dying batteries. Done sensibly it would also allow batteries of different sizes, so you don't have to drag around a large battery (500kg to 900kg+) unless you are going on a long trip - most of the time you can use a small lightweight battery for city driving. Unfortunately such a system would require all the manufacturers of EV's to use a common standard, and that requires them to believe that the ongoing increase in EV sales is more profitable than selling a battery as part of the car to start with. It might also require them to share technology, and perhaps make it easier for new manufacturers to enter the market. So overall in our current market it probably wouldn't be a popular choice for the manufacturers!

In india thousands of mopeds and scooters are already using swappable batteries but I think replaceable batteries for larger vehicles are unnecessary. Physically handling even a 50kg battery will requires specialised machinery and this creates heat another set of points where things can go wrong.

Owning and EV for ~6 months now my initial anxiety about range and charging time has all but evaporated and this should be the case for the vast majority of people who can charge at home. I can arrive home with a near empty battery and be ready to go for a full range trip by next morning using my home charger. This is a rare occurrence eg maybe once a month so it's not like many people will need to do this.
The battery issue is now more one for EV owners who
- live in apartments etc and have no access to a home charging facility
- are Towing
If an EV driver is going to be happy enough with a smaller battery ie smaller range for city driving, then all the driver has to do is not charge up as fully. A smaller battery then might be equivalent to about a 5 minute fast charge.

The towing issue is primarily logistical in that few current chargers allow for a "pull through" setup to charge. Constant unhitching to charge is a right PITA and can be easily fixed but having pull through charging bays like servos do. To further facilitate this charging rates could be scaled, ie the first 10kW are free, low charges for the next 10's of KW and high rates for to completely fill a battery.

Getting EV manufacturers to agree on a common anything has been done in regards the a; important charging plug. It has been a difficult negotiation but apart from the large VW group, has recently been achieved with all large manufacturers agreeing to use the Teslas plug configuration by 2025 and in the meantime adapter plugs can be used for 2024. This has been largely bought about because Tesla has installed tens of thousands of fast charger in Europe and North America so it allow non Tesla vehicles to use their chargers.

[Warb]

Owning and EV for ~6 months now my initial anxiety about range and charging time has all but evaporated and this should be the case for the vast majority of people who can charge at home. I can arrive home with a near empty battery and be ready to go for a full range trip by next morning using my home charger. This is a rare occurrence eg maybe once a month so it's not like many people will need to do this.

EV's have always fascinated me from a "requirements" viewpoint. Range is a non-issue for most people living in cities, and frankly always has been. It was far more of an issue for people in rural areas, where a drive of several hundred kilometres is far more common, but as EV range has improved even for these people things have improved. Sometimes it is still a problem - my wife has just started a 5 hour drive, which would stress most EV's, but that's no longer a regular occurrence. Having said that, a 6 hour return trip to drop my daughter in Sydney does happen fairly regularly.

The concept of being able to swap to a smaller battery is for overall energy saving. Whilst we can suggest that an EV is better for the climate (marginal/variable unless all the electricity is from renewables), surely using less in total is better still? So avoiding lugging around a battery, which is very heavy (Telsa S 544Kg, Tesla Y 771kg), would save overall power usage, and thus benefit the environment even further. Assuming that a smaller and lighter battery used for short distance city travel would have an equivalent life expectancy to a larger heavier one, it would also be less of a recycling issue at EOL. So an all-round win. My original concept was for a drive-over mechanism to automatically swap the batteries and put the old one on a rack to recharge. These cars are made by robots on a production line, so I don't see that a battery replacement system should require much manual intervention. It also removes the requirement for the vehicle to sit at a recharging station to refuel. I realise that recharging is getting faster, but only if the very large amounts of power are available. Yesterday at the Marulan (M31) services there was a constant stream of vehicle refuelling at the 10 (?) pumps. If each of those was an ultra fast charger (30 minutes?), the queue would still have gone back to Sydney and the service station would have required it's own pocket nuclear reactor! A 3-minute battery swap, however, with batteries charged more slowly 24/7, requires only a warehouse with suitable racking and a vastly smaller power feed. The issue here is that we have to be thinking of the future, when (presumably) all cars are EV's, rather than the present when most are still ICE.

What really intrigues me however is the need for a "big" EV, when most only ever contain the driver. The same, by the way, applies to ICE vehicles. I suppose it comes back to the same old problem, that people "want climate action" but don't want to make any sacrifice (or effort?) themselves. We would solve so many problems, not only with emissions but also congestion and parking, by using small EV's for city travel, but we still insist on buying a BIG vehicle, presumably to demonstrate our status.

Edit: Continuing on from my "thinking of the future" comment, a swappable battery, if done cleverly, would also allow for the easy adoption of new battery technologies. Given a standardised pack voltage and form factor, it shouldn't matter what battery technology is used, so when someone devises a new/better/cheaper/lighter battery it can simply be put in the standard form factor case and used by any car on the road.

[BobL]

RE:My original concept was for a drive-over mechanism to automatically swap the batteries and put the old one on a rack to recharge.

I seriously doubt this will ever happen. Tesla tried the battery swap idea and even demonstrated a 2 minute turn around, but have instead opted for faster chargers (350kW) but right now battery charging speed is the limit (250kW) so they need to speed them up.

Right now I can fast charge (up to 150kW) at very small country town locations like Jurien Bay. Lancelin, and Walpole.
Any small country battery swap location with say 20 batteries on 7 kW trickle charge will need a high capacity charger a(ie 20 x7 - 140kW) anyway.
So cost wise the small country location needs to provide a fast charger, the cost of 20 batteries being charged, AND a very expensive battery charging mechanism!
And on top of that anything with a even a hint of mechanical components requires regular checking and servicing so more added expense.
Users would be better served by 2x more chargers ie double the capacity and/or halve the charge time.

I'm intrigued that dedicated EV charging station/cafes are not opening up, if you have someone trapped at a location for say 20 minutes, this becomes an invaluable opportunity to get them to cough up money :)

A city based battery swap setup would need say 150+ batteries @ say 7 kW of power so 1+MW
Once agin better installing more fast chargers.
Economically it doesn't stack up.

As for the petrol station analogy you are missing one important point in that most EVs will start long journeys ie leave home with a full battery, whereas every ICE vehicle has to go to a petrol station to fuel up. The sticking points are major highway locations which is where these sorts of setups will be needed.

China
532749

USA
532750

Norway
532751

[Warb]

I seriously doubt this will ever happen.

I will pretty much guarantee that it will never happen, because it doesn't suit the EV manufacturers. At present they can sell you a vehicle at whatever price they like, then sell you a replacement battery at whatever price they like, then enforce a built-in obsolescence policy by changing something relatively trivial.


Right now I can fast charge (up to 150kW) at very small country town locations like Jurien Bay. Lancelin, and Walpole.
Any small country battery swap location with say 20 batteries on 7 kW trickle charge will need a high capacity charger a(ie 20 x7 - 140kW) anyway.
So cost wise the small country location needs to provide a fast charger, the cost of 20 batteries being charged, AND a very expensive battery charging mechanism!
And on top of that anything with a even a hint of mechanical components requires regular checking and servicing so more added expense.
Users would be better served by 2x more chargers ie double the capacity and/or halve the charge time.

You are assuming that the two systems, charging and swapping, are mutually exclusive. I'm assuming that you can still charge your swappable battery at home, or at a winery that you're visiting, or outside McDonalds. But you can also swap it on a motorway service station, where you want it done quickly and it's difficult to supply enough power to fast charge sufficient vehicles. Those wishing to stop for lunch can charge up, whilst those in a hurry can swap.


I'm intrigued that dedicated EV charging station/cafes are not opening up, if you have someone trapped at a location for say 20 minutes, this becomes an invaluable opportunity to get them to cough up money :)

Indeed, but now imagine their ire when they arrive to find no chargers available because people are still eating when their vehicle finished charging 20 minutes ago. In a normal petrol station people are infuriated when someone decides to go to the bathroom or do some shopping (those pesky petrol+minisupermarket things!), imagine that scenario when they know they're going to have to wait 30minutes to charge their own battery, and all the chargers are already full!


A city based battery swap setup would need say 150+ batteries @ say 7 kW of power so 1+MW
The city based servo wouldn't need anything like that, because the majority of people would charge at home, or at work. It's really only the long journeys and freeway stations that are affected. When EV's really take off, I suspect the majority of in-town servo's will simply go bust.


As for the petrol station analogy you are missing one important point in that most EVs will start long journeys ie leave home with a full battery, whereas every ICE vehicle has to go to a petrol station to fuel up. The sticking points are major highway locations which is where these sorts of setups will be needed.

Both these points are (should be?) True. Although people can fill up the night before, even now, and often don't! I suspect that as you say, those who can charge at home will probably do so, although what that will do to the grid on the night before a public holiday might be interesting to see! As I have said, the long distance motorway trips are where the problem lies!

[BobL]

Indeed, but now imagine their ire when they arrive to find no chargers available because people are still eating when their vehicle finished charging 20 minutes ago. In a normal petrol station people are infuriated when someone decides to go to the bathroom or do some shopping (those pesky petrol+minisupermarket things!), imagine that scenario when they know they're going to have to wait 30minutes to charge their own battery, and all the chargers are already full!
FWIW Unlike a petrol pump, EVs are tied before charging to a CC so anyone that overstays their allowed time at an EV charge point increasingly finds themselves paying a time penalty of currently a $1/minute.


The city based servo wouldn't need anything like that, because the majority of people would charge at home, or at work. It's really only the long journeys and freeway stations that are affected. When EV's really take off, I suspect the majority of in-town servo's will simply go bust.
Many apartment residing EV users esp in big cities wont be able to charge at home.

Very few servos actually make money on fuel - the profit is made by the fuel companies - the servos operators make their money on the extras they sell. Eventually the fuel companies will have to start closing servo sites or convert them to charging stations. Companies like Shell are well ahead and currently has more than 40,000 public charge points globally for electric vehicles at forecourts, retail sites and destinations. By 2025, they expect to have around 70,000 public EV charge points and around 200,000 by 2030 globally. se Electric Vehicle Charging | Shell Global (https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/mobility/electric-vehicle-charging.html)
Lots of charging stations are opening up at shopping centres .


Both these points are (should be?) True. Although people can fill up the night before, even now, and often don't! I suspect that as you say, those who can charge at home will probably do so, although what that will do to the grid on the night before a public holiday might be interesting to see! As I have said, the long distance motorway trips are where the problem lies!

Most EV users with home charging capabilities dont let their vehicles batteries drop down to near zero. They plug in every night so most would already be 70-80% full before the long weekend so don't usually have to completely charge from empty.

I agree on the last point

[Warb]

FWIW Unlike a petrol pump, EVs are tied before charging to a CC so anyone that overstays their allowed time at an EV charge point increasingly finds themselves paying a time penalty of currently a $1/minute.

Not being an EV owner I didn't know that. It's a good solution, but I suspect the price will possibly need to be hiked to avoid the "it's only $10 so I'll just leave it another 10 minutes rather than interrupt my lunch" mentality.


Many apartment residing EV users esp in big cities wont be able to charge at home.

This will probably change. Of the two city apartments I have involvement with, one (luxury, and not mine!) will almost certainly have charging points fitted to every space as soon as one of the residents gets an EV. The other apartment (a far more modest affair!) already have a project running to investigate the costs of fitting such systems. I suspect that every apartment with a parking space will eventually also have overnight trickle charging at the very least. As you have said, for most city dwellers that will be all that is required. Even a shared charger with access one night in X (whatever X happens to be!) would probably suffice 99% of the time.


Eventually the fuel companies will have to start closing servo sites or convert them to charging stations. Companies like Shell are well ahead and currently has more than 40,000 public charge points globally for electric vehicles at forecourts, retail sites and destinations. By 2025, they expect to have around 70,000 public EV charge points and around 200,000 by 2030 globally. se Electric Vehicle Charging | Shell Global (https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/mobility/electric-vehicle-charging.html)
Lots of charging stations are opening up at shopping centres .

This almost certainly will happen, but it will be (as you say) at retail sites and destinations rather than dedicated servo's. The difficulty is that city workers with 30 minute lunch breaks simply don't have time to go somewhere to charge a vehicle, nor are they interested in doing so on the way to or from work. If they can charge whilst doing the shopping on the way home, that's fine, but they won't want to make a special trip or sit at a servo. In Canberra (and probably elsewhere, but Canberra is where I am!) there are already charging points in the public carparks at (some) shopping centres. Interestingly there are also car cleaning services, but the two don't yet seem to have combined. I would have thought an obvious business opportunity was to park your car and come back to find it cleaned and charged!

I would also assume that companies with car parks would also provide charging stations for their workers. In LA I'm sure I saw rows of sunshaded parking with PV roofs and charging for the cars underneath.

Either way, I suspect the future looks bleak for service stations, especially in cities, although it will be a few years before it's a problem for many.

[BobL]

So far the $1/minute overtime charge seems to working is working surprisingly well but as you say as more users come onto the system there will be more people with $$ to spare won't care.


I would also assume that companies with car parks would also provide charging stations for their workers. In LA I'm sure I saw rows of sunshaded parking with PV roofs and charging for the cars underneath.

Some of the newer remote faster/larger NRMA chargers going in over east are covered with PV panels, and contain a large battery and also a diesel back up generator.

[Bushmiller]

Thanks to Bob and Warb for the EV input. It brings home the extra capacity that will be required down the track for the Electricity Market. Clearly there is a long way to go for the development of the market. It is very early days.

Regards
Paul

[Warb]

Thanks to Bob and Warb for the EV input. It brings home the extra capacity that will be required down the track for the Electricity Market. Clearly there is a long way to go for the development of the market. It is very early days.

Regards
Paul

It is a big adjustment. More worrying (?) is that as Bob says, most people will charge their EV's overnight, and we're already discussing the overproduction of solar through the day and shortfalls at night. Overnight EV charging will simply add to that problem, and generation-->storage-->storage(EV) chains are inherently lossy.

"Early days" is when we should be looking to set up a system for the future....

[FenceFurniture]

It is a big adjustment. More worrying (?) is that as Bob says, most people will charge their EV's overnight, and we're already discussing the overproduction of solar through the day and shortfalls at night. Overnight EV charging will simply add to that problem, and generation-->storage-->storage(EV) chains are inherently lossy.

"Early days" is when we should be looking to set up a system for the future....Furthermore, having solar panels with a home battery won't improve that situation because the smallest car batteries are 3-4x the capacity of a home battery.

[Warb]

Furthermore, having solar panels with a home battery won't improve that situation because the smallest car batteries are 3-4x the capacity of a home battery.

Hopefully, as Bob says, most people will top up their battery every day/night so that domestic/EV battery discrepancy shouldn't be too much of an issue, especially if they can get a good charge at the weekend. Most city/town dwellers don't travel excessive distances on a day-to-day basis, especially now that working from home is such a big thing (temporarily?).

Those city dwellers in apartments won't have access to domestic PV, so they're the people who will need overnight charging or daytime charging at work, and if they're reliant on overnight charging then......

If we were proactive, I imagine we'd be insisting that all new developments had powered carparking spaces, and we'd be replacing parking meters with trickle chargers and so forth. After all, if an EV was connected to even a tiny power supply (10amp domestic or below) EVERY TIME it was parked, with the exception of occasional long journeys I'd imagine 99% would never need anything more. This is why I don't understand the installation of city charging stations in the form of servo's, surely omnipresent small supplies are better than sporadic huge ones?

[BobL]

Furthermore, having solar panels with a home battery won't improve that situation because the smallest car batteries are 3-4x the capacity of a home battery.

More like 5-6x

BUT
The need for most city users to fully recharge every day is rare.
In 6 months EV use, I have used 2118 kWh of charge, 88% (1863 kWh) of which has been charged at home
This works out to just 10 kWh a a day so at say a 90% round trip efficiency (most decent battery systems can achieve this), if I had say a 13 kWh hour battery I could "in theory" be away from home all day but could full recharge my EV from the home battery at night.

In practice
- some days the EV uses more than 10kWh, other days it might use less
- some days your PV system may not produce 10kWh of battery charge eg weather or home use.

However, one rarely needs to recover absolutely every bit of eV battery charge in one go every time one charges, so what if you only charge from the home battery to say 70%, or do not even charge at all - it can be made up on other nights. This approach results in minimal draw from the grid at night.
My brother and his wife have this setup and they have 2 EVs. He's retired and is at home most days so he can charge is car during the day. Excess solar goes into a 13kW battery to help charge his wife's small eV at night. She does very few km in her car (ie works and back) so only needs 2-3kWh of house battery each day to cover her travel and the rest of the solar usually covers his car and their homes needs at night.

I don't have a battery and these days I am often away from home during the day.
When I come home I sometimes forget to plug in but I'm getting better at remembering - its dead easy as the EV socket plug and charger are right next to my front door.
During winter with reduced overall solar production coming home after 4pm doesn't add much charge to the EV so at best I estimate I was getting at best about 50% of my EV charge from solar during winter. Because I'm not using ACs in winter at least virtually all of the solar output can go into the EV.


With summer approaching the extended daylight means there are many days where it's possible to recharge both my car and power my home (2 ACs) mostly from solar.
Below is one example for a typical 36º summer day in Perth.
The graphic shows power produced, consumed and exported/imported, and shows I used solar to power 75% of my total requirements
The graphic also shows I still exported 5.8 kWh so if I had used a battery my grid usage would have been reduced to ~10% of total usage.

Y axis scale needs to be multiplied by 4 to show proper kWh readings
The gap between the red and green lines shows my base power use ~700W which includes a small bedroom AC that stayed on all day.
The gap between the green and blue lines shows the eV charging between ~9 and 4pm at about 2.5kW for a total of 17.5kWh (ie almost double my average) I had to manually set that power level
The gap between the blue and purple line shows a second larger AC in use in the family room for about 3.5 hours
532784

There are apps that link between PV systems car chargers to maximise solar EV charging. My system is currently not compatible with my charger although it is apparently under development. :)

It takes some getting used to but given the cost difference between solar charging and mains charging is a whopping 3c/km Im not phased when the EV draws from the grid.

[Warb]

It takes some getting used to but given the cost difference between solar charging and mains charging is a whopping 3c/km Im not phased when the EV draws from the grid.


Veering slightly away from the electrickery industry, the last time I calculated the cost of running an EV the accepted norm was 0.2kWh/km. For us that means that at off peak rates it would cost about 8c/km to run an EV (if we had no solar!). That compares to around 11c/km for a hybrid Rav4 at present fuel prices.

As I have little doubt that our next "family" car will be electric, can I ask (Bob) if the 3c/km price is down to far cheaper power prices than our 40-odd cent off peak (55c peak!) rate, or have EV's improved beyond the previously accepted 0.2kWh/km average?

[BobL]

Veering slightly away from the electrickery industry, the last time I calculated the cost of running an EV the accepted norm was 0.2kWh/km. For us that means that at off peak rates it would cost about 8c/km to run an EV (if we had no solar!). That compares to around 11c/km for a hybrid Rav4 at present fuel prices.

As I have little doubt that our next "family" car will be electric, can I ask (Bob) if the 3c/km price is down to far cheaper power prices than our 40-odd cent off peak (55c peak!) rate, or have EV's improved beyond the previously accepted 0.2kWh/km average?

0.2kWh/km is about average across a range of EVs ,but it varies widely and most of the published figures are significantly underestimated and an immediate discount of at least 10% is required..
At the recent Perth EV show I was disappointed in how inefficient almost all the new vehicles were.
Of those on display with only the Mini Cooper and the small BYD were significantly sub 200. Some of the larger EVs were 250+.

Teslas are by amongst the most efficient EVs. My "dual motor" high performance Tesla Model Y (525HP on tap) gets a real world 165 Whr/km and if I go easy on the accelerator I can get ~150 Whr/km. A single motor Model 3 Tesla (their most efficient vehicle) driven relatively conservatively can get 140 Whr/km. I bet if my wife was still here she could get this on my EV.

Im paying 31c at all times but can get it much cheaper off if I go for a peak off peak rate

The Smart Home Plan is 16 to 58c

There's an EV scheme that offers 8c in the early am, and 22-50 otherwise. My BIL (Tesla single motor Model 3) uses this and says his weekly commute costs (was a full tank of fuel) is something he just doesn't think about any more.

All this is courtesy of guaranteed/reserved price gas the WA government established about 15 years ago.

Buy back is 10c between 3 and 9pm, and 2c at other times - ie might as well use it !

[ian]

Interesting online ABC article posted this morning Community pushback against renewable energy projects could see Australia miss its emissions targets and climate goals - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-28/renewable-energy-transition-community-pushback-emissions-targets/103154364)
the gist seems to be, the proposed developer of the overhead power line, AusNet, will construct the line in a way that the height of farming machinery used under the line will be restricted to a maximum of 3.0m.

while the story is couched in terms of being a roadblock to Australia's renewable push, it strikes me that increasing the height of the pylons would lift the line further off the ground allowing taller machinery to be used under the lines.

It also strikes me that undergrounding the lines -- as many farmers seem to prefer -- would be worse, as underground lines would prevent the area occupied by the lines being farmed by tilling.

I'm envisioning that to be cost effective, lines installed underground would require something the size of a D12, or even bigger, dozer fitted with a ripping hook. Lines installed by ripping a trench would sterilise even more farmland than installing overhead lines with an "electrical safe" clearance of (say) 5 metres. Ripping is how rural fibre optic cables were installed from the 1980s.

[Warb]

....construct the line in a way that the height of farming machinery used under the line will be restricted to a maximum of 3.0m.

while the story is couched in terms of being a roadblock to Australia's renewable push, it strikes me that increasing the height of the pylons would lift the line further off the ground allowing taller machinery to be used under the lines.

It also strikes me that undergrounding the lines -- as many farmers seem to prefer -- would be worse, as underground lines would prevent the area occupied by the lines being farmed by tilling.

I'm envisioning that to be cost effective, lines installed underground would require something the size of a D12, or even bigger, dozer fitted with a ripping hook. Lines installed by ripping a trench would sterilise even more farmland than installing overhead lines with an "electrical safe" clearance of (say) 5 metres. Ripping is how rural fibre optic cables were installed from the 1980s.

3m is a ridiculously low cable, even the smallest "real" agricultural machinery wouldn't go underneath! My 100hp John Deere was 2.5m tall, and larger headers can be up towards 5m. On hilly grazing land, where no big machinery goes, 3m might be OK (folded up spray rigs are the only thing that might cause a problem), but in such areas the cables are normally taken from hill to hill so "height" is relative!

Buried cables are much easier for farmers. Other than deep tillage, which rarely goes below perhaps 50cm and mostly much less (20-30cm), a >600m bury depth won't trouble many farmers. Unfortunately burying power cables is expensive!

Regarding buried fibre, my farm had the main fibre that served Central West NSW running under it, and the "new" fibre they put it perhaps 10 years ago running parallel. When they originally put in the old fibre, they didn't fit a metal trace and instead used transponders at strategic points with straight lines in between. Unfortunately (though predictably) the transponders failed over time, and now many don't work. The result is that they have no idea of the exact path of the fibre. On my farm they could find it on one side of the valley, and halfway up the hill on the other side, but across the valley floor it was largely guess-work! It caused them much stress when they tried to run the new fibre parallel to something they didn't know the location of! The new fibres have a metal tracer installed with them, so it can be tracked exactly.

As a farmer, there is no compensation for an underground cable being installed. On an ongoing basis that's perfectly OK, because there is also no impact. However at the time of installation, any livestock has to be removed for the duration of the work, crops are destroyed, pipework etc. is unusable until repaired/replaced (and afterwards there are joints that can leak). They tell you that they will repair fences, but they simply cut and then stretch the fences and rejoin the wires, meaning they are now over tensioned. With the eye watering cost of rural fencing, it is painful to see the shock absorbing corrugations of your new fence being pulled straight by a contractor over-straining the wires and bunging in a Gripple. If you fight you can get compensation for crop damage, but it's a struggle (though to be fair, some "farmers" don't help the cause by claiming that what was in reality worthless "un-improved pasture" was, for compensation purposes, race-horse quality lucerne).

There can also be issues with weeds, as seeds picked up on one property are transported down the line by vehicles, tools and boots.

So the problems for both underground and overhead cables are all very real, especially when the work is done by people who don't care and are working to the smallest budget possible.

[Mr Brush]

A couple of "industry insights" (I work in fibre optic systems and power networks).....

First, the 3m doesn't mean the height of the overhead cable off the ground. HV conductors have a minimum "safe approach distance", which varies with voltage (e.g. 132kV, 330kV, etc.). I don't have my Ausgrid or TransGrid network rules books handy, but they would have allowed possibly a further 6m or more above the 3m max. machine height that was mentioned, so conductor would actually be at 9m minimum. Second, you don't just plough in HV underground cables. Most underground installs are in duct (grouped together in a trefoil for the three phases), typical drum lengths for the larger cables rarely exceed 700m, so that means a joint bay every 500-700m for the sections to be joined together. Longer routes would be trenched with the cable laid into a sand bedding. The backfill into the trench has to be of a known thermal resistance, usually a mix of sand/cement, or in metro areas the ducts carrying the cables are embedded in a soft concrete mix (FTB - Flowable Thermal Backfill) which has a uniform and known thermal resistance to ensure max conductor temperature of the cables isn't exceeded under design load. I work with fibre optic systems strung up the middle the the conductor trefoil to sense temperature, from which we can calculate the conductor temperature in the cable. This must not exceed 90C under full load or extended service.
I worked at Optus while they were building their initial fibre network around Australia, most of it ploughed in behind a D9. Since they are non-metallic, the fibre cables have a warning tape containing a fine wire installed above them, plus transponders, but both can prove very elusive when looking for the stuff. It doesn't help that the as-built drawings from Leightons (the contractor) were often a work of fiction. Regarding contaminated soil, I do remember one spectacular case that spent years going through the courts - Leighton brought in some topsoil from elsewhere for remediation works across a farmer's paddock, dressed it all nicely, and went on their way. A few months later a broad purple stripe appeared across the paddock following the trench line; the imported soil was contaminated with seeds of Pattersons Curse. Ooops.

[Mr Brush]

There you go - for TransGrid (NSW):

532866

They would be working from the Mobile Plant guidelines in this case, and restrictions also depend on whether an observer is available (and other measures) to control the hazard. 330kV overhead lines = 6m (my memory may not be shot after all).

[Bushmiller]

There you go - for TransGrid (NSW):

532866

They would be working from the Mobile Plant guidelines in this case, and restrictions also depend on whether an observer is available (and other measures) to control the hazard. 330kV overhead lines = 6m (my memory may not be shot after all).

Thanks Mr.B


I have pointed out in the past that some idea of voltage can be gleaned from the distance the three phases are apart. Similar clearances apply downwards and this must be to the top of the tallest machinery. I hadn't realised there was a two tier system for machinery.

When I first did my training, quite a while back last century :rolleyes:, we were told of a farmer who complained that he was getting electrical shocks from the overhead transmission lines. When it was investigated, it turned out that he had bought a new state-of-the-art tractor that was large enough with the air-conditioned cab to come inside the safety clearances and he was experiencing electric shock from induced voltage. It may have been safe while he was still in the tractor, but not so good if he decided to exit while under the lines.

Regards
Paul

[Warb]

...... they would have allowed possibly a further 6m or more above the 3m max. machine height that was mentioned

3m is still totally insufficient for modern agricultural machines. As I said, my "little" 100hp John Deere was 2.5m tall, before adding the various antenna and warning beacons on the roof or lifting the bucket on the loader. My friends Steiger is basically 4m to the top of the cab..


I worked at Optus while they were building their initial fibre network around Australia, most of it ploughed in behind a D9. Since they are non-metallic, the fibre cables have a warning tape containing a fine wire installed above them, plus transponders, but both can prove very elusive when looking for the stuff.

When the Telstra guy came out to locate the fibre across my front three paddocks when we were modifying the irrigation pipework, he stated that no copper trace was laid with their original fibres. Of course, as he worked for Telstra his info may have been incorrect! However when the guys came to install the new fibre they also had massive problems finding the old one!


A few months later a broad purple stripe appeared across the paddock following the trench line; the imported soil was contaminated with seeds of Pattersons Curse. Ooops.

They really never think about the consequences of their actions. One lot decided they were fed up with weeds around their installation (I suspect it was telecoms) so they bucketed out a pelletised long-life residual herbicide. When it rained it washed down the hill into a vineyard, killed acres of grapes and olive trees and left the ground unusable. Cost a fortune in compensation.

[Mr Brush]

Thanks Mr.B


I have pointed out in the past that some idea of voltage can be gleaned from the distance the three phases are apart. Similar clearances apply downwards and this must be to the top of the tallest machinery. I hadn't realised there was a two tier system for machinery.

When I first did my training, quite a while back last century :rolleyes:, we were told of a farmer who complained that he was getting electrical shocks from the overhead transmission lines. When it was investigated, it turned out that he had bought a new state-of-the-art tractor that was large enough with the air-conditioned cab to come inside the safety clearances and he was experiencing electric shock from induced voltage. It may have been safe while he was still in the tractor, but not so good if he decided to exit while under the lines.

Regards
Paul

Good point re. phase spacing. The rules around entry to substations where you may be working around overhead conductors now comprise a training manual about an inch thick. I had to renew the certification every year, for each utility I did work for. The rules just got stricter and stricter every year, including compulsory arc-flash rated clothing for everyone working anywhere on their network, just because one guy somewhere was burned in a flashover accident. The arc-flash rated clothing is so heavy and hot, it was more likely to cause deaths from heat stroke in summer than anything else. A lot of things you don't regard as conducting can become so at very high voltages - e.g. when working with 6m lengths of plastic conduit anywhere near high voltage conductors you had to keep them completely below waist height at all times, with an observer keeping an eye on you as well. Scary times.

[Mr Brush]

I used to train Optus staff in using the cable locater to find the tracer tape on fibre optic cables - that was always entertaining. As for damage to property, it was well known that Leightons needed to have a guy with a cheque book following closely behind their work crews to placate the locals. Between wrecking gates, cutting fences, hitting existing services, and chewing up paddocks......there were plenty of cheques to be written. I can still picture that paddock with the Pattersons Curse sown into it by the contractors - absolutely spectacular - and that stuff is a devil to get rid of completely once it has been introduced. Seed can lie dormant for some time, then one year you've got purple again everywhere.

[Bushmiller]

The NSW electricity system has slightly different rules to QLD. When I worked in the NSW system at Liddell, a dim and distant memory which time has almost healed, we had to go into the switchyards and "prove dead" on the 330KV lines we were isolating. This was done with a shepherd's hook mounted on a voltage detector. Under this contraption was an extension of varnished timber sticks each about 1 meter long. For 330KV it required four extensions above the handle. Firstly, we tested the device on a live line to make sure it was working by touching the hook onto the line (a red light lit up) and then we checked the disconnected line. Then it was back to the live line to check the integrity of the meter again. Finally, the hook was hung on the dead line to remind us which one to isolate. Isolating a live line, as I don't have to tell you, is a very bad mistake!

Up in QLD I don't have to do those tasks and I don't miss them at all.

Regards
Paul

[Mr Brush]

Eeeek - rather you than me. Even the buzzing and crackling from 330kV conductors and insulators on a humid foggy morning was pretty disconcerting. There were some older Ausgrid low voltage switchyards in Sydney that were so ancient they didn't conform to modern clearance standards, and were basically regarded as complete "no go" areas. Live conductors literally 2 feet above your head. They took us all to see one of these during training one year, but it was strictly a case of just looking at it from outside the compound fence.

[Bushmiller]

Eeeek - rather you than me. Even the buzzing and crackling from 330kV conductors and insulators on a humid foggy morning was pretty disconcerting. There were some older Ausgrid low voltage switchyards in Sydney that were so ancient they didn't conform to modern clearance standards, and were basically regarded as complete "no go" areas. Live conductors literally 2 feet above your head. They took us all to see one of these during training one year, but it was strictly a case of just looking at it from outside the compound fence.

Mr.B

Actually, a dewy or misty morning with the conductors protesting with their crackles was usually deemed sufficient to not perform any switching let alone "proving dead.". I think the clearances, since the time to which I am referring, have probably increased from 4 meters. I can only remember having to do this once or twice. As you can see, I lived to tell the tale.

Regards
Paul

[Mr Brush]

Reminds me of some advice given by our Electrical Engineering lecturer at Uni... "If you can't see it on an oscilloscope it doesn't exist, and if it's over 12V keep your hands in your pockets" - correct at the time (in terms of frequency and voltage) for those of us doing the light current/digital stream anyway. I think out of a class of 30 only 2 chose the heavy current/motors and machines option, but I bet they were never out of work after graduation ! I rapidly left the electrical stuff behind, got into fibre optics for an M.Sc. by research, and have basically been a "Photonic Engineer" for most of the past 35 years.

[FenceFurniture]

Victoria is putting in a 600MWh battery to be operational by 2025 at a cost of $245m:
‘One of the world’s largest’: battery farm to be the first project funded by Victoria’s resurrected electricity agency | Energy | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/30/victoria-battery-farm-project-melton-victoria-premier-jacinta-allan)

[FenceFurniture]

So, if the following holds true:
(say) 18 months construction time for the battery
Comes in on budget at $245m
Snowy Hydro 2.0 costs $15b:rotfl:
SH 2.0 is completed by 2030 :rotfl:

then the Feds could put in 61 of those batteries which would supply 36,600MW spread out over 61 locations.
Obviously they couldn't all be completed in the next 18 months, and I'm sure that budgeting for SH 2.0 will be spread out over however many years.

How much power is SH 2.0 supposed to deliver? I'm reading 2,200MW, but someone might want to check my figures.
If my figures are right then those batteries (which don't get bogged inside a mountain) would supply 16.6x the power of SH 2.0 for the same money, and be completed in significantly less time, with the added benefit of being placed around the country.

Am I missing something here?

[doug3030]

Am I missing something here?

Possibly a large amount of waste battery product to be disposed of safely when the big battery reaches end of life?

[Bohdan]

Batteries are able to supply that power for several hours but SH 2 will for several days.

Quoting figures of MW instead of MWH in the context of a battery is the sort of thing polys do when they make pre-election promises, and we all know what that is worth.

[Mr Brush]

Plus, pollies would prefer one BIG project to go stand in front of for photo opportunities a la Scotty from Marketing, rather than have to travel around to multiple smaller (and frankly, not as visually exciting) projects around the country. There would also be significant costs involved in transporting all those extra people who have to stand in shot behind the chief polly and nod their heads knowingly in response to every inane utterance. As an aside, I speculate that there may be a position in political circles referred to internally as a "nodder"? Happens all too often on the TV news. :D

Sorry, I've come over all cynical all of a sudden. I'll have to go lie down for a bit.

[Mr Brush]

is the sort of thing polys do when they make pre-election promises, and we all know what that is worth.

Hey - where's my Very Fast Train??? And my personal jetpack, come to that????

[ian]

As an aside, I speculate that there may be a position in political circles referred to internally as a "nodder"? Happens all too often on the TV news. :D
I seem to recall that "noddies" were first identified in the background of some of Bob Hawke's speeches.

[Mr Brush]

Who do they think they're kidding? Surely most people have noticed this by now? Can't front the cameras without at least 2-3 noddies in support....lol

[BobL]

FWIW The Tesla CyberTruck has been officially released in the US (although no right hand drive models currently available)
So far only several hundred are available for delivery compared to the millions that have been ordered.
The release means we can finally see official pricing and specs.

There are 3 models
Single Motor Rear wheel drive US$50k
Dual motor All wheel drive US$69k
Trimotor CyberBeast US$96k (0-60 mph 2.6s)

For homeowners, tradies and campers the auxiliary 240V power output specs are of interest.
Up to 11.5kW of continuous 240V power will be available from the battery for use from sockets inside the cabin and at the rear of the cargo tray.
532942
For more details look here https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck
Unfortunately right hand drive models not expected until 2025.

[Mr Brush]

A "paper launch" if ever there was one Tesla Isn’t Currently Taking Cybertruck Orders at All (https://gizmodo.com.au/2023/11/tesla-cybertruck-orders-suspended/)

I'll be watching with interest.

[Mr Brush]

This makes interesting reading too: The Tesla Cybertruck Still Looks Like Crap, Even In Matte Black (https://jalopnik.com/tesla-cybertruck-looks-like-crap-matte-black-prototype-1850996467)

[BobL]

The first link is already outdated.
Re: Second link, I happened to agree with - my preference would be white, which is available as a wrap for only US$6500 :oo:

This is worth a look but make sure you watch it to the end.

https://youtu.be/Hf2H_jev2OY?si=gjvcO1hziHjOt1OP

[Bushmiller]

Bob

Love him or hate him, you have to say he absolutely has a knack for the dramatic!

I recently became aware of just how many variations there are of the 911, which was first introduced way back in the sixties (Actually 1964), and I doubt he chose one of the rocket ships, but still hugely impressive and a big kick in the proverbials for those knocking the towing capability of EVs. The range while towing would be a separate issue.

The least powerful Porsche I could find currently offered in Oz developed 283KWs.

Regards
Paul

[doug3030]

FWIW The Tesla CyberTruck has been officially released in the US (although no right hand drive models currently available)
So far only several hundred are available for delivery compared to the millions that have been ordered.



This is worth a look but make sure you watch it to the end.

https://youtu.be/Hf2H_jev2OY?si=gjvcO1hziHjOt1OP

Once again I am concerned about the future of the human race.

Millions of Americans have ordered an ugly car that can tow a porsche faster than the Porsche can drive. For what logical purpose?

So it can tow. Great. How fast is it gobbling up the basttery charge while it is doing that? Is it the same configuration that the ones on the street will be using?

Most ICE cars that can drag offf a Porsche over the standing quarter mile aren't street legal so maybe this one has been "tricked up" and is not the same as the general release vehicles will be.

I have a very bad mind picture of millions of supercharged, overweight battery packs on wheels being driven dangerously by millions of idiot drivers and the affect that will have on the general population. :C :o :no:

[FenceFurniture]

Batteries are able to supply that power for several hours but SH 2 will for several days.Both systems rely on using power created at cheap times to get re-energised: batteries have to be recharged (hopefully by a solar array), and the hydro water has to be sent back up the hill (presumably by what ever power is available, solar or coal powered).


Quoting figures of MW instead of MWH in the context of a battery is the sort of thing polys do when they make pre-election promises, and we all know what that is worth.MW was the only measure I could find reasonably easily.

[Bushmiller]

Once again I am concerned about the future of the human race.

Millions of Americans have ordered an ugly car that can tow a porsche faster than the Porsche can drive. For what logical purpose?

So it can tow. Great. How fast is it gobbling up the basttery charge while it is doing that? Is it the same configuration that the ones on the street will be using?

Most ICE cars that can drag offf a Porsche over the standing quarter mile aren't street legal so maybe this one has been "tricked up" and is not the same as the general release vehicles will be.

I have a very bad mind picture of millions of supercharged, overweight battery packs on wheels being driven dangerously by millions of idiot drivers and the affect that will have on the general population. :C :o :no:

FF

I think people have been buying cars that are overly fast for a long time. frequently people do not buy a vehicle that is suitable for their purpose just because they want one. Nobody really needs a vehicle that is capable of more than, say, 120KM/hr, particularly if people wish to keep their license. Manufacturers would probably be unable to sell a vehicle like that as it would be automotive suicide. With cars, rationality tends to go out the door.

The power of Porsche models varies quite a bit and, as I said, I expect the one in the test (and on the trailer) was likely lower down what is admittedly quite an elevated spectrum.

As to the tweaking, that used to be quite rife. The Jaguar E-Type was the classic. The test car did a genuine 150mph as tested by both Motor and Autocar. No 6-cyl E-Type out of the showroom ever did that again, but it set up the E-Type for evermore. I remember a convertible version (it may have been auto as well) only struggled to manage 117mph! The Jaguar test prep team was very, very naughty boys.


Regards
Paul

[Warb]

I think people have been buying cars that are overly fast for a long time. frequently people do not buy a vehicle that is suitable for their purpose just because they want one. Nobody really needs a vehicle that is capable of more than, say, 120KM/hr, particularly if people wish to keep their license. Manufacturers would probably be unable to sell a vehicle like that as it would be automotive suicide. With cars, rationality tends to go out the door.

Just cars? Do they need a $20million waterfront home for them and their wife, or to spend $1000 on lunch for two at the latest flash restaurant?

People show off. I suspect it's an evolutionary trait - demonstrate your superiority to get a good mate and perpetuate your genes. It's completely subconscious most of the time, and it's what enabled social media to take over our lives - why else would people post pictures of their plate of food in a restaurant, or their holiday abroad?

It must also be said that top speed is largely irrelevant in the real world. I have a collection of old Land Rovers which are very slow in all respects, and a diesel ute which isn't much faster. I also have a "hot hatch", and I have no idea what its top speed is, but it rarely gets above 100kph (110kph on the freeway). I just enjoy being able to overtake "efficiently".....

[Bushmiller]

Warb

Agreed. The human race sees possessions as an extension of their personality and a measure of their worth. In my case I drive around in a frequently overladen 18 year old ute. :( Actually, in this regard, we mimic other, supposedly, lesser animals.

Regards
Paul

[doug3030]

Just cars? Do they need a $20million waterfront home for them and their wife, or to spend $1000 on lunch for two at the latest flash restaurant?

People show off. I suspect it's an evolutionary trait - demonstrate your superiority to get a good mate and perpetuate your genes. It's completely subconscious most of the time, and it's what enabled social media to take over our lives - why else would people post pictures of their plate of food in a restaurant, or their holiday abroad?
532975

[BobL]

Is there any difference between someone that can afford it who buys a $100k car or someone that spends $10k on machinery and goodies for their workshop just to make a couple of pieces of ordinary furniture or a few boxes? Anyway the Cybertruck is not really designed to compete with average mum and dad sedan but higher end tradie utes which are in the $75-$90k range.

However, the main reason I brought up the cybertruck was mainly in relation to this thread ie to show progress with the EV battery to home supply connections. How this pans out in reality remains to be seen. I'm not 100% sure how this works but apparently the cybertruck is plug and play with most Tesla home batteries. When a cybertruck EV battery is connected to a house with Tesla Battery the house simply sees itself as having a larger battery and no additional requirements or approvals are needed. Other systems/batteries will require adaptive hardware/software which Tesla will supposedly eventually sell and is very likely to need approvals.

While it may seem superfluous to have a home battery and an Ev battery to Home connection, some form of home battery still makes sense in that it simplifies setups and possibly reduces approvals. A home battery will also store sunlight when the EV is not at home.

Setups without a home battery that require approval remain problematic. If and when the cybertruck makes it to Australia I imagine any approvals process will take a long time.

[Bushmiller]

Ok. so, this is not really a practical proposition for Australia, because it is more for direct heating than electricity production. Generally, more heat is the last thing we need. I have included it as at just after the 2 min mark in the video it does explain the temperature aspects . I have to say I have always been fairly skeptical of the practicalities of geothermal as I see pipework 4km down as a potential disaster waiting for a bad time to happen.

Geothermal Can TRANSFORM Dirty Coal Mines into Clean Energy Hotbeds! | Watch (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/video/webcontent/geothermal-can-transform-dirty-coal-mines-into-clean-energy-hotbeds/vi-sL7oO13uMrkInQ?provider=yt&vid=_blWLGuJ9fk&ocid=msedgntp&cvid=08b3e3b9ac5e4efe88c76e80f4fe3679&ei=21)

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

Currently we seem to be focused on Solar and Wind when talking renewables with just a dash of Hydro thrown into the mix, primarily to create a little controversy (Snowy 2.0). I mentioned geothermal in the previous post. this one is about Wave power.

When we talk of power for free, it is not of course free. We really are discussing the cost of conversion to electricity. The waves are there day in and day out, BUT and as Matt Ferrell says, "there's always a catch."

He describes the Chinese project as massive. I calculate his figures equate to a 1MW station on a 24 hour basis. If you were using this type of power to replace Liddell, for example, even in it's diminished state down from 2000MW to 900MW at the time of closure, you would need 900 of these to replace it.

How Wave Power Could Be The Future Of Energy | Watch (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/video/webcontent/how-wave-power-could-be-the-future-of-energy/vi-jYH7UH+JXog4FQ?provider=yt&vid=FxdbD-N7pHE&ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9b06e1aa08144e6cb7c55bf343d64162&ei=27)

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

This makes interesting reading too: The Tesla Cybertruck Still Looks Like Crap, Even In Matte Black (https://jalopnik.com/tesla-cybertruck-looks-like-crap-matte-black-prototype-1850996467)

In the pictures it actually looks like a low sheen black rather than a matt black. Not quite accurate reporting by their propaganda department.

But where does one get black stainless steel, irrespective of gloss level? Alternatively, how well does their paint stick to stainless steel?

533093 Source: Mr Brush Reference

[GraemeCook]

The least powerful Porsche I could find currently offered in Oz developed 283KWs.

The GT3 RS reviewed by Steven Corby in the Weekend Autralian developed 385 kW - that is approximately 515 HP.

[FenceFurniture]

The GT3 RS reviewed by Steven Corby in the Weekend Australian developed 385 kW - that is approximately 515 HP.Well I'd say that would be the one that Musk would have challenged – it wouldn't be like him to gild the lily or anything. :no:

Would it? :B

[BobL]

In the pictures it actually looks like a low sheen black rather than a matt black. Not quite accurate reporting by their propaganda department.

But where does one get black stainless steel, irrespective of gloss level? Alternatively, how well does their paint stick to stainless steel?

533093 Source: Mr Brush Reference

They're not painted but wrapped in some sort of plastic coating.
This is also done on conventional Steel and Al panelled vehicles.
Here's a M3 Tesla with a gold wrap.
533104

[Bushmiller]

Well I'd say that would be the one that Musk would have challenged – it wouldn't be like him to gild the lily or anything. :no:

Would it? :B


Tesla Cybertruck’s Race Against A Porsche 911 Was Apparently An 1/8-Mile Run (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/tesla-cybertruck-s-race-against-a-porsche-911-was-apparently-an-1-8-mile-run/ar-AA1kZRHs?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6f9edf24f7b24d92b24ee66537774a3f&ei=16)

To be fair (in an unfair world) we don't know the full detail for certain and to my mind it would be incredibly stupid for Musk to make such a deception that can be quite easily discredited. Having said that, it would appear in America that rich gentlemen,and I use the term extremely loosely, can say or do whatever they wish without accountability. Maybe they even believe their own untruths.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

to my mind it would be incredibly stupid for Musk to make such a deception Yairs, unlike telling his major advertisers to "go f$&% yourself. I hope that's clear" which is definitely one of the smartest moves I've seen.

[GraemeCook]

Moderators: If this is in the wrong thread, please move it. Members: I was unsure whether to post here, in the dust extraction sub-forum or to start a new thread - any views?

BobL has highlighted the dangers in the workshop from fine dust over many years.

Thirty years ago there was a landmark paper published in the New England Journal of Medicine called the Harvard Six Cities Study that linked excess deaths in six US cities to particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns. t prompted new regulations on industrial smokestack emissions.

That study has just been replicated and extended, and published in the journal Science. The new study found that the effect of PM2.5 pollution was even higher than the previous study found and also that PM2.5 pollution from coal fired plants was 2.11 times deadlier than from other sources.

Here is a summary, the full report is in the current issue of Science.
Harvard’s legacy of heading off deaths from industrial air pollution— Harvard Gazette (https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2023/11/harvards-legacy-of-heading-off-deaths-from-industrial-air-pollution/?utm_source=SilverpopMailing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Gazette%2020231204%20(1))

I think that it is fair to say that PM2.5 pollution is even deadlier than Bob has been saying, and that it is not a good idea to live downwind from a coal fired plant.

[BobL]

Moderators: If this is in the wrong thread, please move it. Members: I was unsure whether to post here, in the dust extraction sub-forum or to start a new thread - any views?

BobL has highlighted the dangers in the workshop from fine dust over many years.

Thirty years ago there was a landmark paper published in the New England Journal of Medicine called the Harvard Six Cities Study that linked excess deaths in six US cities to particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns. t prompted new regulations on industrial smokestack emissions.

That study has just been replicated and extended, and published in the journal Science. The new study found that the effect of PM2.5 pollution was even higher than the previous study found and also that PM2.5 pollution from coal fired plants was 2.11 times deadlier than from other sources.

Here is a summary, the full report is in the current issue of Science.
Harvard’s legacy of heading off deaths from industrial air pollution— Harvard Gazette (https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2023/11/harvards-legacy-of-heading-off-deaths-from-industrial-air-pollution/?utm_source=SilverpopMailing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Gazette%2020231204%20(1))

I think that it is fair to say that PM2.5 pollution is even deadlier than Bob has been saying, and that it is not a good idea to live downwind from a coal fired plant.

Yeah I often feel like I've been peeing into the wind. I often think that as well as or even instead of a fuel or economy gauge ICE cars should perhaps be fitted over with a PM2.5 meter so's drivers can ee how much gunk their vehicles spew out. The first time I tested my hone first made dust detector I almost killed it by placing it near SWMBO's idling 4WD diesel exhaust.

Whether it's particles rising from combustion or mechanical processes like wood dust, most people are still prepared to gamble on not being affected by dust. Back in 2017 a panel of over 30 international experts accurately determined that world wide at least 5 million people a year die prematurely from dust but that's only part of the problem. Hundreds of millions suffer worse health outcomes than otherwise, leading to much worse quality of life, varying forms of invalidity, and medical conditions than people expect. The number of productive years lost is massive and is a major contributor to the ridiculous cost of medical care. If these effects were really factored in we'd be banning all sorts of stuff. I am constantly amazed by rabid beancounters that are very selective about what beans are allowed to be counted. As long as they're not paying everyone else can go f@#&% themselves.

[Bushmiller]

Graeme

I would suggest this information is quite pertinent in this thread as it potentially could be yet another nail in the coffin for coal fired power generation. Equally, it could have gone into a dust thread, but one of the thrusts of the article was that not all PM 2.5 has the same danger level. The coal fired power station emissions at this level were significantly more of a health hazard.

On an optomistic note, the situation in the US may be more serious than in Australia. Much of their coal has a high sulphur content compared to Australia and it is the reason they have "scrubbers" installed on the back end of their exhaust gases to capture these nasty elements. I pulled this excerpt:

"And third, this scrubber technology is very effective. We tracked mortality over time and were able to see the impact on mortality before and after scrubbers were installed. You really see the number of deaths go down................If you have to rely on them, then we shouldn’t allow any coal-fired plants without scrubber technology"

We don't have this feature on our coal fired power plants as the coal is not high in sulphur. I think it is the sulphur that is the problem.

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

Without sounding too far fetched it's not just burning coal that makes particles as the world is still plagued with the prehistoric energy sources of burning biomass. Sure it can be carbon neutral if the biomass is 100% replaced but unfortunately it's not. Burning biomass may only be a fraction of the total energy generation but there's loads of burning involved in land clearing and bushfires, plus burning biomass is typically incredibly inefficient so generates loads of particles. Unfortunately some people have no choice but to burn stuff like camel dung to cook their food.

533188

[GraemeCook]

Yeah I often feel like I've been peeing into the wind.

Yachties quickly learn to pee from the leuward rail.


Hundreds of millions suffer worse health outcomes than otherwise, leading to much worse quality of life,

Anyone who has ever seen someone suffering from emphysema will know how incredibly moderate your language is.

Oftentimes I have read responses to your posts and thought - Richard Cranium's namesake.


I am constantly amazed by rabid beancounters that are very selective about what beans are allowed to be counted.

Economists refer to this as the free loader principle.

Way back in the middle ages in England people prided themselves on their cleanliness because they threw their excreta out the window (Quite literally). Far cleaner than keeping it in the house!

Not so long ago industrialists believed that rivers were helpfully provided for them to dump their rubbish into. Some still do believe that. But progress is being made.

When I was a kid in we lived close to the Hobart Rivulet roughly midway between Cuthbertson's Tannery and Cascade Brewery - both piped their industrial effluent into the rivulet. Down stream from the tannery the creek was totally dead - no fish, no insects, no tadpoles, etc, and it was smelly. Above the tannery there was life in the creek; we regularly caught trout but not yabbies. Above the brewery the creek was even more alive including yabbies. Please note I am talking about Tasmanian yabbies (Astacopsis franklinii) which require very clean running water and not mainland yabbies (Cherax destructa) which thrive in muddy water. Fast forward fifty years and that creek has been cleaned up - the tannery is defunct and the brewery long stopped dumping crud - and it has even been recolonised by platypusses. Lovely.

[Bushmiller]

I found this article interesting as it reported on a number of party political positions on Australia's likely move towards zero emissions. I do wonder whether it is ethical for an opposition party to undermine the government on an international stage, but maybe that is a discussion for another arena.

Coalition tells Cop28 it will back tripling of nuclear energy if Peter Dutton becomes prime minister (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/coalition-tells-cop28-it-will-back-tripling-of-nuclear-energy-if-peter-dutton-becomes-prime-minister/ar-AA1lg9xh?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=72eb34b29f3844a4bdf651b1510b2ad0&ei=271)

A few excerpts:

"While only 11% of countries at the talks – mostly nations that already have a domestic nuclear energy industry – backed the nuclear pledge, O’Brien declared “Cop28 will be known as the nuclear Cop”."

"Experts say the country would not have a nuclear industry before 2040 even if the national ban on the technology was lifted now (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/19/australia-needs-drastic-renewables-boost-as-nuclear-not-an-option-for-decades-says-centre-right-thinktank), and nuclear energy is more expensive than alternatives."

"New South Wales Coalition MP Matt Kean, a former state treasurer, acknowledged O’Brien’s commitment to reaching net zero emissions but said “obviously nuclear is a long way away” and the country should back renewable energy now."

“Who knows what might be available in another 20 years – we may have flying cars in 20 years – but that doesn’t mean you base your whole transport around it,” he said. (Matt Kean)


The thrust of the Coalition argument was the place for nuclear powered generation. The protagonists for this in Australia seem to be missing the fundamental reality of whether it is competitive with other forms of power. Apparently, they are now not touting SMRs (I think somebody told them there has been no such installation built and the one that was proposed in the US has been canned), but advocating full scale installations. I don't think anybody has informed them how expensive they are to build and how long it takes. There is another issue in that Australia has too much other viable forms of power for the Nukes to be economic. Who in their right mind is going to build a base load type facility that will have to be either shut down or run at a negative price point throughout the day.

The answer to that is no private company will consider nukes without very significant government subsidies and guarantees. For Nukes to be considered, the government would have to cough up large sums of money and be prepared to run the facilities at a loss. This is quite apart from the other issues that plague nukes such as waste disposal, site location, decommissioning costs (a really big issue that is almost never discussed) and safety.

The article is worth a read, but as usual really raises more questions than answers.

Regards
Paul

PS: As far as tripling nuclear energy in Oz, 3 x zero is still zero. :wink:

[FenceFurniture]

PS: As far as tripling nuclear energy in Oz, 3 x zero is still zero. :wink:What else would you expect from an idea-free zone?

Coincidentally, I was looking into Australian elections history last week after reading a piece on Dutton by Michelle Grattan. Among other observations, this is what I found:

The first 15 years of Federal Govts were very turbulent indeed, with 8 changes of Govt and 11 Prime Ministers (but only 7 different men) in the first 14 years 9 months. A number of those changes of Govt were not by election, but by a vote of no confidence. Outside of those turbulent years, there has only ever been a single one-term Govt: that of James Scullin (Labor) who was elected a week before the Wall St crash of 1929, and was unable to survive the effects of the Great Depression. However, he appears to be revered, and his economic policies were apparently a decade ahead of their time, and many of them were adopted by the right wing United Australia by 1940. (they were more right than left, but possibly less right than wrong :D)

What that leads to is that Lord Voldemort has no historical hope of becoming PM in 2025 (whew). It would mean Albanese's govt is the second one-term Govt, and would also mean that Voldemort would be the only Leader of the Opposition elected to LotO after a change of govt election who then went on to become PM for the first time at the next election. Andrew Fisher had already been PM when he achieved that feat (he was PM for 7 months, then lost a Vote of no confidence).

The moral of the story: becoming the Leader of the Opposition after a change of Govt is historically a poison chalice!

Spreadsheet showing a timeline of our history attached.

[FenceFurniture]

"Experts say the country would not have a nuclear industry before 2040 even if the national ban on the technology was lifted now (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/19/australia-needs-drastic-renewables-boost-as-nuclear-not-an-option-for-decades-says-centre-right-thinktank), and nuclear energy is more expensive than alternatives."It seems that concept of nett zero is lost on too many people who should know better (in the decision making world). Referring to this part:
"Aemo found the optimal future grid would run nearly entirely on renewable energy, with a range of technologies – including batteries, pumped hydro, demand response and fast-start gas plants – filling gaps around it."

If we can reduce other CO2 emissions (e.g. from transport, other high emission industries) to a level where we can incorporate fast-start gas plants to "fill in the gaps" and still achieve nett zero then we may not need anything else outside of that and renewables. Our current uptake of Solar power is pretty incredible and I expect that it will be the same when we have a decent variety of EV options to choose from, and with plenty recharging stations available. We Aussies are at the forefront of new tech early adoption (e.g. we had the highest adoption rate of fax machines, back in the day).

I should think that if nuclear power is achievable by 2040 then that means starting the process right now (10 years to build, 7 years to argue about how and where, and then start the planning). Whilst the arguing has already started, there'll be no actual planning done by the current government until after 2028 (assuming history is right and they are not a one-term govt). That would put nuclear out until the mid 2040s.

[GraemeCook]

Coalition tells Cop28 it will back tripling of nuclear energy if Peter Dutton becomes prime minister (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/coalition-tells-cop28-it-will-back-tripling-of-nuclear-energy-if-peter-dutton-becomes-prime-minister/ar-AA1lg9xh?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=72eb34b29f3844a4bdf651b1510b2ad0&ei=271)


That is the trouble with Mr Dutton; he just does not think big enough or long term. Tripling output ? He should be thinking of increasing it one hundred fold ... and that is just a start.


As far as tripling nuclear energy in Oz, 3 x zero is still zero. :wink:

Now don't you worry about that, Paul. Mr Dutton's supporters will immediately recognise it for what it it ... FAKE NEWS.

Next, you will be asserting that 100 x 0 is still zero!

[FenceFurniture]

That is the trouble with Mr Dutton; he just does not think big enough or long term.That sentence is 5 words too long.

[GraemeCook]

That sentence is 5 words too long.

:2tsup:

[Warb]

It seems that concept of nett zero is lost on too many people who should know better (in the decision making world). Referring to this part:
"Aemo found the optimal future grid would run nearly entirely on renewable energy, with a range of technologies – including batteries, pumped hydro, demand response and fast-start gas plants – filling gaps around it."

I feel that the biggest problem with the concept of net zero is that it is entirely a paper-based calculation. Paying a third party to plant a tree, and offsetting a hypothetical amount of carbon captured over the life of said tree in no way makes the atmosphere any better in the short to medium term. Even if that tree actually gets planted, actually survives, and then has its carbon content used for building or in some other way is "captured" in perpetuity, that entire process will take tens of years, and the chances are that its carbon will, at some point, once again be released into the atmosphere. If the tree dies, never gets planted, or burns in a bushfire, then absolutely nothing was gained, even in the short term. I would guess that the same applies to most other calculations in the "net" zero figure.

Accountants spend years learning to work their way around rules..........

[FenceFurniture]

Agreed. It would be better to measure outputs of CO2 etc that contribute to global heating, and concentrate on reducing those emissions.

[Bushmiller]

As we move deeper into summer, I suppose it was inevitable that the electricity market would become stretched. yesterday and today, for example, are what we call "Red Days" in our workplace. These are designated that way when there is clear potential for commercial market to go ballistic.

In the southern states a 40° day was quite common yesterday even in coastal areas. This invariably means the Air Cons are going to be cranked up. The recommendation is to pitch the temperature somewhere between 24° and 26° being an economic point and still relatively comfortable.

As always, the evening peak carries the most likelihood of demand attempting to outstrip supply as the heat of the day is still with us.

Regards
Paul

PS: Ironically perhaps, in downtown Millmerran yesterday, we only reached 36°. :D The only problem with that was it didn't go below 26° overnight :( .

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

Yes Paul, it was a "red" late afternoon and early evening on Amber Electricity yesterday...well the forecasts rates were red (above 50c per kWh) for about 3 hours 17:30 to 20:30, but it turned out they were all in the yellow/amber zone of 35-49c. Still pretty expensive but a far cry from the $2.24 or something that was predicted for one period.

[FenceFurniture]

I keep the stats on my daily sparks usage these days, and that has given me cause to also keep weather stats too, and I chart them together. Here we are halfway through December, and this month is 5.2° hotter than the 65 year average from 1957-2022.