Future of the Australian Electricity Market

[Warb]

What I think should happen and I know this is dreamland stuff is that there should be a community battery which relies on local solar and only buys from the grid as needed. The local solar generation is kept "in house" at an agreed price until it becomes necessary to buy from the grid. My town would be a prime example of where this sort of scheme would work. How pricing would work I would have no idea but I suspect a smart meter could be utilised.

Unfortunately, as I suggested in my earlier post about wind farms, the motivation for large scale solar, windfarms and almost every other "save the planet" scheme, is actually profit and has nothing to do with climate change, other than to gain support from eco warriors (who not infrequently have very little real knowledge and simply follow the hype), and financial incentives from the government. Domestic PV cuts into that profit, and so is the number 1 enemy for commercial generators. This is why they will never support such a scheme and will find all the reasons they can ("causes grid instability" etc.) to prevent it, unless of course it is owned and run by them. There was an effort a few years ago to impose extra charges on people who install rooftop solar, justified on the grounds that "such people still use the grid but don't contribute to it". In fact we contribute as much as everyone else, but that "poles and wires" daily charge doesn't benefit the energy retailers, so they see their profits threatened by rooftop PV.

We live in a world run and controlled by big business. If they ever tell you that something is good for you or the planet, it's almost certainly better for them!

[doug3030]

To make things worse, domestic panels tend to be fixed, rather than on frames that "follow the sun". This means that they are either stuck on the roof at whatever angle and direction that happens to be facing, or adjusted to give a "best average throughout the year" result. They then gather dust, and often their output decays far quicker than the manufacturers would like us to believe.

I have a fairly substantial 12 volt system in the back of the ute for camping, so this is not quite the same as a domestic system.

Reading Warb's post reminded me of some of the ways I manage the solar power we generate and preserve the battery power.

I have three x 120 amp hour AGM batteries and a solar panel array that attaches to my trailer, connected to the car by a solar panel extension lead. Adding up the wattage the solar panels were sold as, it comes to just over 1000 watts. I think in reality they woudl peak out at 700 watts on a good day.

The solar panels are mounted on the trailer with an adjustable bracket which I can adjust to maximise performance. I can tilt them up to nearly vertical to maximise the morning and evening sun, or lay them down at about 30 degrees for midday and anything in between in steps. Being mounted on the trailer I can also move the trailer through nominally 180 degrees to follow the sun from sunrise to sunset, while adjusting the angle accordingly.

I have a CTEK battery management system that directs the power to any appliances that are plugged in and any surplus goes into the batteries. If push comes to shove, I can run the ute engine for a while to charge the batteries from the alternator, not that this happens often with the size of the battery bank and solar panel array but it's nice to know it is there if needed.

We were camping at Easter this year for 24 days, in conditions where the sunlight was not all that reliable. During that time I was running an Engel 40 litre fridge and a 35 litre Kings Fridge as a freezer. THe power required to run a freezer is a lot more than running a similar sized fridge. There's a 2000 watt inverter in the back of the ute which we make use of for an electric kettle and a small oven, but only if we don't use gas or open fire. If the batteries are full in the evening and the chances of a sunny tomorrow are good we might just be lazy and use the electrical appliances.

I mentioned before about a freezer using a lot of power, so it's best for it to run through the day and not so much at night. The best way I have come up with to conserve power for nigh ttime is to run the freezer as cold as possible through the day so that at sunset, it should be at somewhere around -18 degrees. I normally have about six one-litre bottles full of salty water in the freezer as cooler bricks. In the late afternoon, when the indicator panel on the battery management system indicates that no more power is going into the batteries, I place two of the cooler bricks into the fridge and turn the freezer thermostat down to -8 degrees. Unless it is a very warm night it is rare after that for either the fridge or freezer to start up overnight. Even on a hot night, the freezer will maintain lower than -8 and the fridge will be below 1 degree. We run lights and a stereo off of the battery bank whenever we wish to, mostly in the evening.

Now of course, I don't always have to utilise all the ways I have available to maximise power usage. It is rare for me to adjust the angle on the solar panels through the day as the sun rises and sets. A nice average angle for the whole day is plenty most of the time, but the adjustment is there to be used when needed. Following the sun with the trailer is real easy and happens four to six times a day regardless. It's all about knowing the state of the batteries, the possible weather forecast and knowing when not to use big power consumers. I have a phone app that monitors the batteries and I don't even have to get out of bed to use it.

It's not uncommon for us to have about 20 of other people's mobile phones and tablets plugged into our charging ports through the middle of the day when we have plenty of power. I did enough rough camping when I was in the Army. Now I'm older I enjoy the luxuries I have worked for.

[Chris Parks]

I use a similar method to Doug to bank the surplus from our panels instead of exporting it and it seems to work. During the day I run the heating (heat pumps) no matter what the day temperature is and bring the house up to 24 degrees and by watching the data from the inverter generally manage to heat the house without drawing from the grid. After the panels start to lose output that heat now banked in the house structure keeps the need for heating to a minimum and about two hours before going to bed all the heating can be turned off and that works well.

This is the first year I have tried this because our winter power bills have been generally low and we get a huge discount from the invoiced figure but I could see the need to be more careful due to the increasing power costs. I have also changed my view of how to use the power from the panels and my aim is never to export power unless forced to for obvious reasons. I doubt many people are getting zero power bills these days due to the very low FIT and the export limits being imposed on PV panel owners. Houses that are not occupied because everyone is at work or school would require a somewhat different approach but it still could be done to some extent.

[FenceFurniture]

I hadn't looked in here for a couple of weeks, and there's been a flurry of activity!

A very interesting announcement from Toyota yesterday, re solid state batteries for cars, but no production for 3-4 years yet. Much more output, safer, and crazy short charging times.
Toyota claims battery breakthrough in potential boost for electric cars | Automotive industry | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/04/toyota-claims-battery-breakthrough-electric-cars)

In 3-4 years I'd expect other significant developments in battery tech from other players.



There doesn't seem to have been any further movement in rolling out V2H in Australia that I can find. That will certainly improve Graeme's economics significantly, albeit at the cost of purchasing an EV.

[Mr Brush]

Probably nearer to happening, the addition of niobium to anode/cathode offers massive advantages without changing too much else in lithium-chemistry batteries:

Niobium in Batteries - Battery Design (https://www.batterydesign.net/niobium-in-batteries/)

These batteries are already being manufactured in prototype quantities, and (significantly) would require minimal changes to existing battery production lines. Just imagine the benefits to our very limited charging infrastructure if cars could charge from empty to full in <10 mins??

Niobium is fairly scarce (already widely used to make high strength, low weight steels), but there has recently been a promising new niobium deposit discovered in Australia - check the chart for WA1 on ASX. Yes, I bought quite a few WA1 a while ago at $1.50/share.....it's been very good to me ! :D

[GraemeCook]

... There doesn't seem to have been any further movement in rolling out V2H in Australia that I can find. That will certainly improve Graeme's economics significantly, albeit at the cost of purchasing an EV.

Another way of stating that, FF.

According to Car Sales, a Tesla Model 3 has a 60 kWh battery capacity and a a drive away price of $62,505 - although I have seen prices as low as $57,400 advertised.

Tesla Powerwalls have an initial capacity of 13.1 kWh per unit and locally the installed cost is $13,000-13,500 for the first unit plus $9,500-10,000 for each additional unit. Five PW's would have a capacity of 65.5 kWH and would cost $51,000-53,500. (Sorry that I cannot be more precise with the costings.)

Thus the car would cost about $10,000 more than the batteries.

To this one would have to add the costs of a very smart energy management system.

[Bushmiller]

An article on the current retail prices (and by default the wholesale prices too):

Questions raised about 'overly generous' power price rises amid tumbling wholesale costs (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/questions-raised-about-overly-generous-power-price-rises-amid-tumbling-wholesale-costs/ar-AA1e8sOK?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a48bfb8e4cab4a85aed0404213dca2df&ei=26)

I would have said it was a very reasonable report until I read this:

"Following the closure of Liddell, which had a notional capacity of about 2000MW, big energy users have raised concerns about the security of the system as more coal plants retire."

That statement makes me question whether their other information is correct. True, Liddell once had four units capable of 500MW each. When it closed down there were only three units running and they had been derated to 300MW. You don't have to be Einstein to work out that is only 900MW maximum and is probably why the closure did not have as much impact on the market as would be expected from the design rated capacity. Added to that, Liddell was a bit of a dog going back nearly forty plus years when I was briefly there and the reliability was an issue even back then. When it closed, it was over fifty years old coupled with a hard life and at times insufficiently maintained.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

Very interesting video on Nickel-Hydrogen batteries published by Matt Ferrell a couple of days ago. No good for small batteries, but excellent for scaled up storage where space is no real problem. Fifty year old tech too, so very well tried and tested, and with a huge temperature operational range. Safe too, apparently.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zG-ZrC4BO0

[GraemeCook]

... I would have said it was a very reasonable report until I read this:

I share your frustration with inumerate journalists, Paul. Journalism schools do not teach their students to count. It is a favourite topic of conversation amongst economists, often reduced to - "How do we dumb this down so the journos can understand it?"

But the main thrust of the article is still relevant.

The closure of Liddel has taken up to 900 MW from the network, but it is baseload supply which is particularly relevant when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing. It is not a binary issue, it is simply reducing the available supply of a product with an inelastic demand and which will put substantial upward pressure on prices. This is Economics 101 stuff. Supply goes down, demand remains largely fixed, prices rise, costs remain fixed, profits soar. The next round of corporate reports will verify this.

This looks very much like a segment of a greater plan to manipulate prices under the guise of environmental responsibility and ecomomic competition. But competition in any oligopoly is illusionary. It is actually the ugly face of capitalism.

Déjà vu - California 2000 - all over again.

[GraemeCook]

... Very interesting video on Nickel-Hydrogen batteries published by Matt Ferrell ...

You have done it again, FF, quoting Matt Ferrell.

He is very entertaining, he finds some very interesting source information, but as soon as he starts talking my snake oil detector shrieks. But I still enjoyed the video.

[FenceFurniture]

... as soon as he starts talking my snake oil detector shrieks.I haven't seen a whole bunch of his vids, but he seems pretty balanced, talking about pros and cons. Now if it was Elon Musk presenting, that would be somewhat different! (in snake oil credibility, leaving out Musks's absolute crap presentation, business, and humanity skills)

Perhaps any American accent these days makes us concerned? :C

That tech also has NASA credibility behind it, so apart from the fake moon landing :doh:, entirely believable.

[GraemeCook]

I haven't seen a whole bunch of his vids, but he seems pretty balanced, talking about pros and cons. ...

That tech also has NASA credibility behind it, ...

No arguements about that at all, FF. But NASA's concept of cost efficiency is a little different from mine and yours. Remember, they are the guys that spent $8 million 1960's dollars to develop a biro that worked in space. The Russians just used a pencil.

Matt seems to be mesmerised by the science of science - all good - but his grasp of economic reality and risk seems rather remote. That part of his presentations is in snake oil territory in my view.

But his stuff is very entertaining; jus google his name and you will get hundreds of hits.

[Warb]

...... but his grasp of economic reality and risk seems rather remote......

Companies developing such technologies are, I suspect, doing so on the basis that the demand side of "supply and demand" has been skewed by the climate debate to the extent that governments (and some companies) will these days ignore all logic and common sense, and pay outrageous sums simply to be able to say "we're doing something".

As the new worldwide religion, "climate action" can be used to justify anything. It doesn't matter whether it's a massively expensive battery, or the replacement of loss-making free "single use" plastic bags with profitable $0.50 "re-usable" ones (they're exactly the same, but you can tell they're reusable because they have it printed on them!), companies will do it, and profit from it, because the faithful will lap it up.

I wouldn't mind betting that governments the world over start ordering these batteries. They don't need to work, or even be delivered, because (I've watched too much Utopia!) the _announcement_ is everything!

[BobL]

Remember, they are the guys that spent $8 million 1960's dollars to develop a biro that worked in space. The Russians just used a pencil..

I have little regard for NASA efficiency but before this urban myth is further propagated maybe read this
Fact or Fiction?: NASA Spent Millions to Develop a Pen that Would Write in Space, whereas the Soviet Cosmonauts Used a Pencil - Scientific American (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fact-or-fiction-nasa-spen/)

In short, using pencils is dangerous in space so the Russian now use the same US$4 "Space pen" as developed by an American private company (not NASA).

[GraemeCook]

What now, Bob; that leftist rag the Scientific American is now peddling FAKE NEWS!

I much prefer my story, and if it is not true, then it should be.

[Warb]

Well, having just got our latest bill I'm so glad we've just installed a bunch more solar!

Our peak rate has just gone from 40.3c to 55.99c, which is a 39% increase. Shoulder has gone from 32.3c to 49.7c, a 54% increase. Off peak from 25.1c to 31.1c, a 24% rise.

The daily charge has gone from 166.2c to 177.1c, a 6.5% increase.

Interestingly our feed-in for the PV hasn't changed, still at 6.7c

[GraemeCook]

You are gunna need some discipline, Warb.

First, do not switch the lights on when the sun ain't shining.

[Warb]

You are gunna need some discipline, Warb.

First, do not switch the lights on when the sun ain't shining.

I've invested heavily in luminous paint............

[BobL]

My NASA story.
As a kid in the 1960's I was mesmerised by the space race, read all the space related books in the local public library, collect news items about space launches, listened to various rocket launches, collected and hung up space posters in my bedroom. Like many kids I dreamed of being an astronaut or astronomer or something associated with "space". My interest waned a little as pop and rock music gained precedence as a teenager but I was still interested enough to sign up for the closest uni degree possible in that area (physics) in WA.

As I progressed through my degree I became more interested in nuclear physics and ended up doing a doctorate in that area, and my first job after that was at the same uni studying pre-solar system nano-diamonds found in certain types of meteorites.

Then I went to work in the US (Scripps institution of Oceanography at UCSD in San Diego) where I researched pre-solar refractory fragments and more pre-solar nano-diamonds. Even though I worked at UCSD my position was funded by research grants from NASA. At UCSD our research group was loosely connected to a large group called "Cal-Space" and our supreme leader (who I only saw once for about 10 seconds) was Sally Ride (first US woman in space). Just across and up the road from the lab I worked in was the Cal-Space building. 11 floors full of manly astronomers. I only went once and was bitterly disappointed - rooms fully of people glued to computer screens. Being someone that liked to work with my hands I felt somewhat vindicated that I had chose a more hands on lab based career.

During my time in the USA I went to several space related conferences including 3 at the NASA Johnson Space Center in Houston, Got to see samples of those all big 1960's rockets and lunar landers etc - impressive but also sad because there were no manned launches going on while I was in the US due to the Challenger disaster. The rockets and lunar landers also all depressingly look more "thunderbirds" than the latest and greatest.

After returning to Perth I started uni teaching so my time for research was limited but I did study pre-solar mineral grains for a few years before switching to Environmental research.

[ajw]

Well, having just got our latest bill I'm so glad we've just installed a bunch more solar!

Our peak rate has just gone from 40.3c to 55.99c, which is a 39% increase. Shoulder has gone from 32.3c to 49.7c, a 54% increase. Off peak from 25.1c to 31.1c, a 24% rise.

The daily charge has gone from 166.2c to 177.1c, a 6.5% increase.

Interestingly our feed-in for the PV hasn't changed, still at 6.7c

And here’s me complaining about paying 36cents peak. I’ve got a 13kW PV system but no battery. Negligible bill in Summer, but winter is a different story. If I had to pay the rates you’re being charged, a battery might make more economic sense. These price rises are going to hurt a lot of people.

cheers, ajw

[Warb]

And here’s me complaining about paying 36cents peak. I’ve got a 13kW PV system but no battery. Negligible bill in Summer, but winter is a different story. If I had to pay the rates you’re being charged, a battery might make more economic sense. These price rises are going to hurt a lot of people.

cheers, ajw

Have you had a bill post July 1st? The price increases just sneaked on to the last 3 days of our new bill, they came in on 1st July.

I had a look on the government "compare power suppliers" website, and there are a couple of companies still offering prices in the thirty-something cents range. However, I'm not 100% convinced that it's not just because they haven't yet pushed their increases through. It strikes me that delaying their increases might cause many people to swap, and then get hit with the same increase next month ("prices may change")! The other interesting point is that my own supplier, on that government website, is quoting a slightly lower rate than they're actually charging us - only a cent or so, but nonetheless lower. I'm not sure why that is!

[Warb]

Having just upgraded my PV, and coincidentally got a bill with a massive price rise, I decided it was time to investigate options with my choice of power supplier. As often happens (at least to me!) I got sidetracked into reading about schemes where the suppliers can take control of your solar battery and discharge it to the grid at times of supply shortage. They pay you a potentially far higher rate for your export, because it reflects the high wholesale price at that time. I then realised the particular scheme I was looking at was not available to me, because I'm on the Essential network rather than Ausgrid....

So, a quick search for similar schemes on the Essential network. One of the hits on this search was this page:

Amber power (https://help.amber.com.au/hc/en-us/articles/16302115653261-New-Essential-Energy-Tariff-Bonus-Feed-in-Tariff-for-those-in-the-Essential-Network-)

Then things got interesting. That page talks about the exporter (me!) paying THEM for power I export at certain times of the day. Whaaa? The time period in question is 10am to 3pm, which is half of the daytime "shoulder" TOU period. Now the charges aren't huge (they seem to be around 1.5c/kWh), but why?

Another link from that page:

Amber power (https://help.amber.com.au/hc/en-us/articles/11053751722125-Managing-times-when-wholesale-FiT-turns-negative-)


This contains a section on why FiT's turn negative. And I can understand that. Except, "renewable energy" isn't inherently identifiable as "renewable". It's not like a can of "organic" beans on a supermarket shelf, the customer doesn't know that it's "renewable energy" running his/her fridge at that time, it's just power. And we're being told that the 54% increase in the shoulder tariff is because power is in short supply and costs a lot to generate. Yet here is a scheme that is charging people to export power, because there's "too much of it". This doesn't seem to compute...

How can it be that the daily charge, and the poles and wires portion of each kWh, has risen massively over the last few years, justified as "gold plating" the network, yet we are having our exports limited because "the grid can't cope". And now, when the cost of power is increasing massively because of "shortages" and "cost of generation" we are also being charged to export power because "there's too much". Call me cynical....!

It is my intention to continue to tune my lifestyle and PV to be self-supplying, rather than to export power, so it doesn't directly impact me. But still, are we all just being taken for a ride?

[woodPixel]

This post exploded on Reddit 1 overnight: The World’s Largest Wind Turbine Has Been Switched On | IFLScience (https://www.iflscience.com/the-worlds-largest-wind-turbine-has-been-switched-on-70047)

These big kahunas have blades that are 123 metres each.... and generate 16-megawatts

Nice!

Imagine having a few thousand of these pumping power 24x7

I was also reading up on General Electric (GE). They can't keep up, I believe they've just shipped their 40,000th turbine: GE Wind Energy - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GE_Wind_Energy)



1 -https://www.reddit.com/r/technology/comments/15csjqh/the_worlds_largest_wind_turbine_has_been_switched/

[woodPixel]

Imagine, during the costs of supporting the epidemic, rather than spending 300 billion dollars (?) we had put a bit of that towards something like this: The World’s Largest Offshore Wind Farm - Dogger Bank Wind Farm (https://doggerbank.com/)

Dogger Banks cost GBP 3 billion and feeds power enough for 6 million homes.


Lets call that AUD 6 billion.... and build 3 such things.

Thats ~ $1000 per person for a system that can pump endless power for everyone.

Seems cheap.

[Bushmiller]

Then things got interesting. That page talks about the exporter (me!) paying THEM for power I export at certain times of the day. Whaaa? The time period in question is 10am to 3pm, which is half of the daytime "shoulder" TOU period. Now the charges aren't huge (they seem to be around 1.5c/kWh), but why?

Another link from that page:



Warb

Welcome to the wholesale market pricing structure. The pricing structure in the whole sale market is the first step (of at least four) that controls the stability of the grid (frequency to be exact) and is the basic supply and demand model.

My understanding of Amber is that it is there for those who already have a battery storage system (only some batteries are compatible, but they are listed) and become linked to the smart technology (two different products available) supplied by Amber. Amber itself is a collaboration and at least partially experimental as far as the retail market is concerned.

This is their reasoning behind the feed in tarrif during the 10-3 period.


"The reality is that the wholesale price of energy dipping below zero on occasion is a curious symptom of the success Australia has had in adopting rooftop solar. While in most of the world, the energy transition is at a point where the market will take as much renewable power as you can give it, we are reaching the next stage of the transition - where the problem is often not the supply of renewables, but demand at the times when they’re being generated. "

The charge is to encourage solar owners to use their power at low periods and conserve power during the high periods. The customer receives a bonus price during the periods of high demand. If a rooftop/battery supplier can use all the energy generated during that off peak period, either by consuming in the house or charging batteries including an EV, no FIT charge would be incurred. The Amber software is designed to facilitate that apparently.

It is an interesting option, but you would have to examine it closely to see if it suits your particular setup. I envy the multitude of choices you have.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

This post exploded on Reddit 1 overnight: The World’s Largest Wind Turbine Has Been Switched On | IFLScience (https://www.iflscience.com/the-worlds-largest-wind-turbine-has-been-switched-on-70047)

These big kahunas have blades that are 123 metres each.... and generate 16-megawatts

/

Evan

I think it is rather appropriate that the world's largest generating station (potentially as opposed to in reality) should also have the largest wind turbine. Quite a renewable installation!

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

How can it be that the daily charge, and the poles and wires portion of each kWh, has risen massively over the last few years, justified as "gold plating" the network, yet we are having our exports limited because "the grid can't cope". And now, when the cost of power is increasing massively because of "shortages" and "cost of generation" we are also being charged to export power because "there's too much". Call me cynical....!

It is my intention to continue to tune my lifestyle and PV to be self-supplying, rather than to export power, so it doesn't directly impact me. But still, are we all just being taken for a ride?

Warb

I meant to comment on this too, but I got distracted.

In regard to the service charge, it does appear there is an anomaly, a bit like bank fees. Unfortunately, the distributors, who look after the transmission lines, have been creaming off the top for years and are now whingeing like a stuck pig when they have to part with some maintenance money.

Are we being taken for a ride? Highly likely.

Regards
Paul

[Warb]

The charge is to encourage solar owners to use their power at low periods and conserve power during the high periods. The customer receives a bonus price during the periods of high demand. If a rooftop/battery supplier can use all the energy generated during that off peak period, either by consuming in the house or charging batteries including an EV, no FIT charge would be incurred. The Amber software is designed to facilitate that apparently.

I understand the logic, what I don't understand is why, if there is too much power available between10am and 3pm, the shoulder TOU tariff has just gone up by 54% because "there's not enough power available"...

Actually I do understand it, but I'm surprised they don't have a better solution. If we continue down the path of renewable energy, this situation will only get worse (more solar at lunchtime than people can use). If they punish us for exporting power, it leaves us with the option of buying more batteries or wasting potential power (limiting exports). Surely neither is great for the environment or the power companies? If I buy another battery, and at present that's what I'm planning, I entirely remove my need to buy power, except on the worst days. I may choose to let them use some of that in an "Amber" style system, but whilst that satisfies my desire for "community" it doesn't really help the major power generators stay in business - if everyone did it would we still need all of them?

It seems to me that a better option would be to either have an additional new TOU tariff, or even another controlled load system, where water heaters etc. would be run in the middle of the day. The rollout of either system could be staged, perhaps giving those claiming support for their power bills first go, such that new customers would only be taken on board as excess power became available (i.e. more solar installations came online). This would shunt the load from overnight, where most water heating etc. is currently done, to peak solar hours to match the changing supply arrangements.

The logic behind off-peak and controlled loads was, as far as I understand it, to encourage people to use the nighttime generation of base load generators that couldn't be switched off, at a time when the demand for power was otherwise low due to everybody sleeping. If that model of generation is changing, surely the model of charging must also change to encourage usage in the new peak generation periods?

The software controlling my inverters and batteries has the ability to allow secure access to an API from which I, or anyone I choose to allow, can see and control what the system is doing. I believe that is how Amber's software can control people's batteries, but I don't know for certain.

[Bushmiller]

The logic behind off-peak and controlled loads was, as far as I understand it, to encourage people to use the nighttime generation of base load generators that couldn't be switched off, at a time when the demand for power was otherwise low due to everybody sleeping. If that model of generation is changing, surely the model of charging must also change to encourage usage in the new peak generation periods?

The software controlling my inverters and batteries has the ability to allow secure access to an API from which I, or anyone I choose to allow, can see and control what the system is doing. I believe that is how Amber's software can control people's batteries, but I don't know for certain.

Warb

Much of what you say is true and logical. Unfortunately the electricity market is dynamic for the moment and it is struggling desperately to find it's feet. In fact, it is stumbling most of the way. We have something of a paradox and the "off peak" system has not yet caught up.

There is this anomaly: The period of low demand is still nighttime and the two morning and evening peaks, but in today's environment it is also, paradoxically, the period of highest prices. Until renewables can supply 100% of the market on a reliable basis, this situation will continue. What has not happened is for the off peak segment to move to those hours between 10am and 3pm. This will come, but is being hampered by the commercial market that by necessity needs to make a profit (the electricity market is a utility that should never have been privatised, but we are well and truly stuck with that). So, for the moment the pricing structure has to ensure viability for the fossil fueled generators (coal and gas) so they can economically survive: It is true to say that if the fossil fired generators pulled the plug (sorry about that one) and said "We're outa here. Can't make money," the country would be in dire straits and life as we know it would change dramatically.

As it is the old traditional stations are being phased out with timelines being brought forward all the time. As that occurs, it will alter how renewables function with an increasing emphasis on storage. The variable rates, including negative pricing, are very likely to find a firm place in the price structure. However, like the station I work at now the positive pricing outweighs the negative and it will always be that way.

I think that you and probably many of the rest of us are a little aggrieved to find that we committed to rooftop solar and in so doing kickstarted the renewable trend and now find that at times they want to charge us! It goes against the grain. However, in the smart system, I would think there must be a function that simply turns off feeding back to the grid and that would remove the problem. During that time you would charge your water heater, run your pool pump, charge your storage battery and run the air conditioning flat out on any additional surplus of power. Oh to be in such a position! :)

Regards
Paul

[Warb]

I think that you and probably many of the rest of us are a little aggrieved to find that we committed to rooftop solar and in so doing kickstarted the renewable trend and now find that at times they want to charge us! It goes against the grain. However, in the smart system, I would think there must be a function that simply turns off feeding back to the grid and that would remove the problem. During that time you would charge your water heater, run your pool pump, charge your storage battery and run the air conditioning flat out on any additional surplus of power. Oh to be in such a position! :)

I'm not really aggrieved, frankly since the ending of the ludicrous 60c FiT my PV systems have only made trivial dollars over and above paying the bills. The negative FiT isn't really an issue either, I haven't signed up for such a scheme and, as you say, I have the ability to limit my export to whatever I want - though I'm not sure I can do that by time-of-day without writing some code!

I think what annoys me most is that "green" is being used as an excuse to make more money without actually doing any work. This isn't limited to the electricity market, in almost every case any measures purporting to be green are in fact thinly disguised profit grabs, and what's worse is that so many of the "climate action now" brigade are fooled every time. This negative FiT is just another example. It is clear that we need to change our consumption patterns to match the availability of power from renewable generation. it is also clear, as you say, that we need to artificially keep the old stations alive (aka profitable) until we no longer need them. But instead of approaching this in a pro-active and future friendly manner, we instead use it as an excuse to do nothing and grab more cash. Worse still, as you say, we are taking the opportunity to build things like the negative tariff into the system, and in the future such things will be justified on the basis that "they've always been there".

I suspect the real cause of this is not the requirement to make a profit, it is the requirement to always make more profit. Until we, as a society, realise that constant growth is neither a requirement or even a possibility, we don't stand an ice-cream's chance in hell!

Edit: I've just ordered another battery!

[GraemeCook]

... Our peak rate has just gone from 40.3c to 55.99c, which is a 39% increase. ...

Just got the latest power bill. Our all inclusive rate (Tariff 31) has just gone from 27.6310c to 29.9470 cents per kWh - an increase of 8.4%. Feed in rate is 10.869c kWh.

But they did increase the daily service fee from 98.9320 cents to $1.137720 per day - a 15% increase.

Yes, they do quote all those decimal numbers.

[GraemeCook]

... These big kahunas have blades that are 123 metres each.... and generate 16-megawatts

Nice!

Imagine having a few thousand of these pumping power 24x7 ...

WOW, those numbers are impressive, Evan.

Here is a chance for Albo to lead from the front. If he is smart then he could give the contract to a coallition contributor. Wonder how many of them would fit in the ACT?

We could start with one on the flag pole at Parliament House. But should it be orientated to catch the breeze or the hot air?

[Warb]

Just got the latest power bill. Our all inclusive rate (Tariff 31) has just gone from 27.6310c to 29.9470 cents per kWh - an increase of 8.4%. Feed in rate is 10.869c kWh.

But they did increase the daily service fee from 98.9320 cents to $1.137720 per day - a 15% increase.

Yes, they do quote all those decimal numbers.

Tasmania. Your single rate is lower than our off-peak, and so is your daily charge. And what a nice place to live...... But cold!

[GraemeCook]

Tasmania. Your single rate is lower than our off-peak, and so is your daily charge. And what a nice place to live...... But cold!

No; we can afford to turn the heat pump on.

[Warb]

No; we can afford to turn the heat pump on.

If you really want to taunt us, tell us you heat your house by burning Huon Pine.........

[ajw]

Warn, what battery did you buy? I’m starting to think more seriously about adding one to my system.

cheers,

ajw

[Warb]

Warn, what battery did you buy? I’m starting to think more seriously about adding one to my system.

cheers,

ajw

When we bought our new property, it had an old PV installation on the house roof, with an equally old "dumb" 4kW inverter. I built a new workshop, then installed 20kW of PV (2 inverters) on the new workshop, and replaced the inverter (keeping the old panels) that was on the house. On my previous farm I had used SMA inverters, but over the years I noticed that each time I installed a new system (we converted all the irrigation pumps etc. to grid-interactive PV, and put solar on several buildings) the new SMA inverters seemed more troublesome, had issues and generally didn't seem as bomb-proof as the earlier ones. Their support also fell apart, the last inverter we installed there was a 3phase 20kW unit that died after a week or so, took ages to replace under warranty, the replacement was clearly a repaired unit and (although we never found any limit in the settings) would peak at 18kW output - the monitoring showed a flat topped output graph, the output "stuck" at exactly 18kW for 6 or more hours in the middle of the day. SMA didn't care! I also looked at replacing my "home built" backup power system and discovered that SMA were unable to help as they were changing their range and could give me no idea when their new solution might be available. And then there was the "SolarCoin" debacle, don't get me started!

So, being disillusioned with SMA, I went with SolarEdge for the system at the new property. There were a couple of minor issues during the installation, mostly down to comms between the inverters, but it seems to be working fine now. The initial install had a single 10kW SolarEdge battery, but we have realised that 10kW isn't enough to isolate us from the grid. At present (winter, PV is gone by 5.30pm), if we heat the water through the day and use no power for heating or cooking, the battery is at 4% (plus 10% reserved for backup, see below) in the morning - not enough to start the coffee machine without importing from the grid. As we are just about to replace our cooktop with an induction unit, the single battery isn't enough.

I suspect that during the summer, the single battery would be OK if no air-con was used at night, but I'm setting this place up for my retirement so I'm trying to get it right now and have minimum maintenance (and bills) later.

The SolarEdge system seems OK. It auto-switches to battery backup mode in the event of a grid failure, and that backup will auto-restart from PV in the morning if the battery runs out at night, which pretty much gives us an ad hoc off-grid system. The amount of battery reserved for backup (i.e. not normally discharged) can be set by the user, and it can also take a generator input if required. SolarEdge also supply load control units, that are programmed from a web interface but driven from the inverters (so work even if the internet is unavailable) that allow loads like water heating, underfloor heating etc. to be switched using both a timer control and "excess solar" - the advantage over a time clock being that on a cloudy day the load doesn't burn grid power at midday, but heats on the normal cheap rate overnight power.

The one problem that I have so far found is that their monitoring system doesn't, bizarrely, allow the setting of a FiT. This means their revenue calculations are incorrect, and worse they can't/won't tell me whether exported power is discarded by their calculations or priced 1:1 with imported power. This seems a fairly significant omission/error for a PV company, but perhaps the rest of the world doesn't have FiT's the same way that we do?

I don't know if the SolarEdge battery can be used standalone, like a Tesla Powerwall, and I'm guessing probably not because it is DC coupled rather than AC. But so far (early days) I'm quite impressed with SolarEdge.

I have no affiliation with SolarEdge, this is simply my experience of owning a SolarEdge system (for 2 weeks!).

[GraemeCook]

Warn, what battery did you buy? I’m starting to think more seriously about adding one to my system.

cheers,

ajw

529288

[Warb]

As I mentioned a few posts ago, I suspect(ed) that the batteries will never pay off their financial investment. However.....

When I did my rough calculations, I recall allowing for a sensible increase in the cost of grid power. At no point did I allow for the 50% price increases that I've just experienced. Such price hikes, if they are a sign of things to come, may significantly change the equation. Averaging the choices on the government "Energy Made Easy" website suggests that current power offerings would cost a house of 4 to 5 people (with electric heating, electric water heating) around $6170k/year in electricity. That's a lot of coin and looks likely to increase into the future.

Grid stability in my area has been OK at best. In the 6 months that I've lived here we've had maybe 5 outages, from minutes to several hours each. Given the transition from fossil fuel to renewables and given that the grid doesn't as yet seem to have been prepared for this, will this instability get worse? Who knows, but my panels and batteries isolate me from this, at least to some degree.

I'm retired. At present I have the cash to allow me to buy PV and batteries. In the future, given a stock market crash or a few months/years of low returns from investments, I may not only struggle to buy panels, but I may struggle to pay the power bill. My PV and battery investments, to some degree, isolates me from this too.

The price of PV and batteries seems to be increasing. The research that I did on batteries suggests that the quoted installed price today is higher than that quoted (internet references only!) a couple of years ago. Batteries are expensive, and the components to make them are shipped several times around the planet before they end up here. As transport and raw material costs increase, they seem likely to get more expensive. Today I can afford them, but if I wait....?

Having said all that, an acquaintance has just this afternoon told me that after the AI and UFO hearings in the US at present, the entire world will be shaken up and unrecognizable, so who knows? (I'm guessing he doesn't!)

[GraemeCook]

The only thing that we can say for certain about the future, Warb, is that it will be different from what we predict.

All the industry promotional stuff that I have seen on batteries has been filtered through extremely rosy glasses. Media "analyses" tend to be done by innumerate journalists - little more than rewriting PR hype. You have to do a thorough cost:benefit analysis of you own situation. In my view you cannot rely on any advice from the industry:

Zealots have very rosy glasses, and
Snake oil salesmen are snake oil salesmen.


In my view, the current exhorbitant electricity prices are artificial should be regarded as a temporary aberration. Remember that most electricity is still generated from fosil fuels.

The market prices of thermal coal spiked during the lockdown, but has been in decline and has dropped by 68% in the past 10 months.

529290

The wholesale price of electricity as reported by the Australian Energy regulator has also been declining; the contract price declined by about 60% over the same time frame.

529291

The wholesale spot prices for electricity, although much more volatile, have also declined in the same period as reported by the AER.

529292

So we have a situation where coal prices have declined substantially, wholesale electricity prices have declined substantially, yet the retail price has risen drammatically - about 50% in your case, less in mine.

Why?

The only logical explanation is market exploitation. Because they can.

[Bushmiller]

Graeme

Thank you for all the charts and the comment. I think it is fair to say that the market is still extremely volatile and we see wide ranges on the spot market. I have started to keep our daily reports and these are a couple to highlight the volatility. Note that the prices are only for QLD, although demands are across the three largest states (apologies to South Australians and Tasmanians that you don't get a mention).

529293

Every day (during the day) we see negative prices at some point and this is during winter, which is the second highest seasonal demand. It has been mild and the demand is quite low across the NEW. That -$44 to -$55 equates to 4c/5c per KW/hr. Quite a lot more than Warbs 1.5c in that 10am to 3pm period. It can go lower. However, it is capped at -$1000 (roughly. I can't remember the exact figure.) I am guessing the average householder would be spewing if he had to cough up $13 per hour for his 13Kws supplied to the grid! :D If we wish to be a supplier, we may have to play by the big boys' rules :(. Of course, I can hear Warbs explaining that he only gets a fixed rate of.... can't remember... 6c-8c (not as much as the 10c you get in Tassie) but he can't deliver much in the way of power when the grid really needs it. That time is from about 0630 until 0830 and then again in the evening from 1630 to say 2030 at night. Then prices remain high during the night, although not elevated as they are during the peaks.

The average prices for the moment are quite low and I had to go back a month to see a significant spike. 19 June 2023. It hit voll, (Value of Lost Load) which is the highest it can be. It quite likely lasted for only a single five-minute segment, although I am only guessing that judging by the average price. It still only resulted in an average of $195 or 19.5c /Kwhr. The NEM load demand for 19 and 20 June was well up. It looks like on the next day the market was better prepared and despite a higher generation the ludicrous maximum price did not eventuate, although I expect the traders of the various companies had their tongues dragging on the floor hoping for a windfall. Supply and demand economics, which I don't think I have to explain to someone like yourself.

I think it is true to say that all generators make hay while, ironically, the sun doesn't shine, because, during the day they have to pay to stay online. Ideally, they would shut down, pack up their toys and go home, but for even the fastest ramping generators this is enormously expensive. The generator just has to reduce load as far as practical and wear the penalty.

529294

Tasmania, as we have observed in past posts, is something of an anomaly. They are the only state where the power is government owned and they are consistently less expensive than any of the other states. It looks as though that is at least partially passed on to the consumer judging by your costs. A good reason why none of the states should have sold off their electricity utilities, but don't get me going on that one.

Just on your coal chart in the previous post, I think that relates to export coal and may not have too much bearing on the rubbish that we burn in power stations.

Regards
Paul

[ian]

Just on your coal chart in the previous post, I think that relates to export coal and may not have too much bearing on the rubbish that we burn in power stations.
Paul,
as I understand the THERMAL coal market, the export price (per tonne) for exported thermal coal is discounted by a fixed percentage to obtain the price for the "rubbish" ground up and spat into your power station.
If I have my facts straight, the discount is based on the percentage of burnable carbon in the coal, though the discount may be based on the percentage of "ash" in the coal -- a higher ash content leads to a greater discount on the export price. The fact that only Australian generators are willing to use the crap is irrelevant.

Oh, the joys of the free market -- if no one but Aussies is prepared to buy the coal, the miner's marketeers can still charge a percentage of the current international spot price to supply the rubbish coal.

[ian]

I'm not sure how many remember the ACT's late 2000s ledge to go 100% renewable with their electricity supply.

The ACT's early contracts for places like the Royalla Solar Farm were written at prices in excess of 180 cents/kWh, with later projects written at prices of around 150 to 160 cents/kWh.


Paul may have a better handle on current solar contract pricing, but solar electricity is capital intensive and the investors will be looking for something like a 15% return on their investment.

[ajw]

Home battery prices are very expensive, and I can’t make an economic argument for them in my case. My PV panels plus infeed tariff mean I have virtually zero bill in summer. Still waiting for our winter bill, but my guess is that it might get to $300. Prices per kWh would have to climb to unimaginable levels before a battery would pay for itself. Yet I still find myself looking at them, and wondering if I could get to zero power cost.

cheers,

ajw

[Bushmiller]

Paul may have a better handle on current solar contract pricing, but solar electricity is capital intensive and the investors will be looking for something like a 15% return on their investment.

Ian

I can't really help there. Solar contracts are a mystery to me so much so that during a visit to the Brisbane head Office I asked the traders how it was done. I have to say that the reply did not really answer my question. However, it appears that the solar farms don't negotiate the contracts themselves, but other generators negotiate on their behalf and possibly incorporate it into their contracts. I had wondered how a contract could be issued for 0700hrs to 1900hrs.

On the cost of Power Station coal I don't know what is paid in general as that would be confidential information. As to the Millmerran station, I certainly can't divulge the cost other than to say it is dirt cheap, mainly because it is very close to dirt! :wink: In fact, if it didn't produce Carbon Dioxide I would suggest it is a stretch to call it coal. It is also cheap because it is our coal mine and we are the only ones that use it. I don't believe any percentages come into the equation.

Regards
Paul

[ian]

On the cost of Power Station coal I don't know what is paid in general as that would be confidential information. As to the Millmerran station, I certainly can't divulge the cost other than to say it is dirt cheap, mainly because it is very close to dirt! :wink: In fact, if it didn't produce Carbon Dioxide I would suggest it is a stretch to call it coal. It is also cheap because it is our coal mine and we are the only ones that use it. I don't believe any percentages come into the equation.
If the Millerman mine has any sort of access to the road or rail network -- and there must be some sort of connection to deliver fuel and workers to the mine's machinery -- the "clever" traders employed by the company that owns the mine will have figured out a way to link the high export spot [thermal] coal price to the input price charged to the Millerman Power station's boilers. (Note I'm saying market will bear price for the coal, not the true cost of mining the coal.)

[woodPixel]

I'm not sure how many remember the ACT's late 2000s ledge to go 100% renewable with their electricity supply.

The ACT's early contracts for places like the Royalla Solar Farm were written at prices in excess of 180 cents/kWh, with later projects written at prices of around 150 to 160 cents/kWh.

Paul may have a better handle on current solar contract pricing, but solar electricity is capital intensive and the investors will be looking for something like a 15% return on their investment.

I'm a resident of this fine capital. Luckily winter here has been tshirt weather. Its unreal. Not cold at ALL.

My electron prices just went up today. Yay! :no:

I use a spreadsheet for budgeting, so all the new numbers are put in and it regenerates the last 17 quarterly bills to see what the difference might be :U:p (Yes, Im a data nerd, can't help it!)

529300



-- Charge 1 to 4 are simply when I moved plans or changed address.
-- Gas shows the daily charge and the rate for the first-N (whatever the units are) of use.
-- Electricity is pretty straight forward.

Here is the cost increase (in dollars) for the same usage over the last 8 quarters.... Not too bad.
<style type="text/css">br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}</style>
<tbody>
11.18


10.70


11.08


10.30


12.55


0.00


1.71


8.41

</tbody>

I can live with an additional $12.55 on my quarterly bill.

....

Chaps, I've said it before, but its worth considering..... rather than putting 30k into solar+batteries, consider investing it into shares in solar companies. Better returns, plus the capital will compound, not depreciate. I should do an analysis, but I'd wager that others here would be better at working those things out :)

[Bushmiller]

If the Millerman mine has any sort of access to the road or rail network -- and there must be some sort of connection to deliver fuel and workers to the mine's machinery -- the "clever" traders employed by the company that owns the mine will have figured out a way to link the high export spot [thermal] coal price to the input price charged to the Millerman Power station's boilers. (Note I'm saying market will bear price for the coal, not the true cost of mining the coal.)

Ian

I may not have been clear. Millmerran Power Station owns the mine. It is ours and right next door. The coal is delivered by conveyor belt from the mine to the power station and the mine's dump trucks remove the ash and stick it back in the voids. If I look out from the top of the boiler, all I can see in one direction is our mine. However, having said all that, we employ an outside contractor to manage the mine. It has been the same company since inception until about a year ago when that contractor decided to get out of coal mining and we now have a new mob.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

... I would suggest it is a stretch to call it coal. It is also cheap because it is our coal mine and we are the only ones that use it. I don't believe any percentages come into the equation. ...

But you can wager that your accountants/strategists will be benchmarking the costs of your company mining coal, adjusted for heat content, against the export price for thermal coal.

[GraemeCook]

. ... Tasmania, as we have observed in past posts, is something of an anomaly. They are the only state where the power is government owned and they are consistently less expensive than any of the other states. It looks as though that is at least partially passed on to the consumer judging by your costs. ...

I would rather say unique rather than an anomoly. Also over 99% of electricity is from renewable sources:

80% hydro,
17% wind farms,
2% solar,
>1% natural gas (allegedly, Hydro keeps Tamar Valley Gas powered generator ticking over as the cheapest way of mothballing it.)

Wind farms are growing rapidly and will become much more important. The solar figures are understated as roof top solar that offsets rather than entering grid is not measured. One advantage of hydro is that it can respond extremely quickly to changes in supply from wind and solar. Coal fired has a big lag time.

The stated government objective is 200% from renewables. We'll see; they are very creative at stuffing up.

Hydro dependency is not without its problems. Droughts do happen and clerks do sell too much electricity to the national grid.

Tasmania has about 30 hydro schemes, but two of them - Great Lake and Gordon Schemes - supply about 70% of the generating capacity. Lake Gordon is larger, but Great Lake is higher at 3,000 feet and thus supplies more energy. Current storage levels are:

Great Lake - 12.74 metres from full, and
Lake Gordon - 26.70 metres from full.

Lake levels (https://www.hydro.com.au/water/lake-levels)

For illustration, a 10 storey block of flats will be around 30 metres tall.


Most of the small lakes are spilling or near full.

[GraemeCook]

... Thank you for all the charts and the comment. I think it is fair to say that the market is still extremely volatile and we see wide ranges on the spot market. ...

True enough. I think that this volatility will actually increase as the reliance on renewables - wind and solar - increases. Coal fired generators cannot ramp up fast enough to meet the demand fluctuations. This time lag will fuel price volatility.

But there is also that massive dicotomy between wholesale and retail prices.

Wholesale prices are volatile and average prices have decreased by about 60% in the past 10 months.

Retail prices are not volatile and have increased exorbitantly in the last few month.

[Bushmiller]

True enough. I think that this volatility will actually increase as the reliance on renewables - wind and solar - increases. Coal fired generators cannot ramp up fast enough to meet the demand fluctuations. This time lag will fuel price volatility.

But there is also that massive dicotomy between wholesale and retail prices.

Wholesale prices are volatile and average prices have decreased by about 60% in the past 10 months.

Retail prices are not volatile and have increased exorbitantly in the last few month.

Graeme

I have pointed out in the past that every single power source we can think of as reasonably viable has at least one fundamental flaw. Some have many flaws even though they may appear attractive at first glance. Your DC link in Tasmania across Bass Strait was an insurance against drought and was to safeguard the Tasmanian grid. The other downside of hydro is the impact downstream on the ecology. However, all that pales into insignificance versus the impact of carbon dioxide emissions.

When wholesale prices were so high in recent times the retailers without sufficient contract, who were probably opportunists, got caught out badly. Most of the large entities will have the bulk of their power via contracts and are consequently insulated against the spikes. It is difficult to assess the proportions of the power under contracts, but it is probably in the region of 75% to 80%. Contracts do have a way of evening out the graph as correction can only be made when they come up for renewal (of course).

Retail prices are not my area of expertise other than to comment there is a big difference between what is available in the country areas compared to the urban regions.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

But you can wager that your accountants/strategists will be benchmarking the costs of your company mining coal, adjusted for heat content, against the export price for thermal coal.

Graeme

As operators our group is in constant contact with our traders and I have to say I don't see anything that would support that statement. The accountants, who are a separate group, are often a source of exasperation, but not in that area. However, I would be breaching confidentiality to elaborate any further than that.

There may well be different arrangements with stations that buy their coal from mines on the open market, but I don't have any inside information on that either.

Regards
Paul

[Warb]

Great Lake - 12.74 metres from full, and
Lake Gordon - 26.70 metres from full.






That's a fascinating way they use to describe the fullness of a dam. I'm sure that on a tour of a hydro plant long ago we were told that they had built a tall dam, with the generators at the base to give a high pressure (head) for the turbines, but the lake behind the dam was wide and shallow, with just a relatively small artificial trench behind the dam to create the head. I believe other schemes pipe the water downhill to create the pressure. In either case it would seem that quoting "metres from full" is meaningless - if the lake is 15m deep but the drop to the turbines (either by a trench behind the dam or through pipes) is 150m, then "12.74metres from full" is akin to "nearly empty".

Typing that has made me look! According to this link (https://www.britannica.com/place/Great-Lake) Great Lake averages 12m in depth. Water doesn't tend to slope very much, so on that basis the lake is, on average, empty. Hmmmm.....

[GraemeCook]

Graeme

As operators our group is in constant contact with our traders and I have to say I don't see anything that would support that statement. The accountants, who are a separate group, are often a source of exasperation, but not in that area. ...

I am absolutely amazed that you would make a statement like that, Paul.

One of the first rules of business is to know and understand what your competitors are doing. Competitors include markets and sources of supply. Why mine coal if you can buy in at a cheaper price? Why buy in coal if you can mine it a a lower cost? Ignoance is not bliss. It is ignorance.

I hope someone is doing some benchmarking of which you are not aware.

[GraemeCook]

That's a fascinating way they use to describe the fullness of a dam. ...

"Great Lake averages 12m in depth." .....

They used to report lake levels in percent of full, but I could not find such a reference. Hydro and the state government is obsessed with "business in confidence" which may be reflected in a "useless statistic" rather than a useful one.

I have done a lot of fishing in Great Lake. When full, it is certainly a lot deeper than 12 metres - that may refer to the original lake before the hydro dams were built. There have been a series of dams built at Miena to raise the capacity of the lake considerably. A couple of dams become exposed when the lake is low.

Most of the power stations are not near the level of the lakes, but they pipe the water downhill to maximise the pressure. Often the penstocks are now underground - in a tunnel - and power stations also are often underground. Tarraleah is an old power station; the lake is at the top of the penstock and the power station is at the bottom.


https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/61/Tarraleah_hydroelectric_penstocks.jpg/220px-Tarraleah_hydroelectric_penstocks.jpg Tarraleah Penstock

[Warb]

They used to report lake levels in percent of full, but I could not find such a reference. Hydro and the state government is obsessed with "business in confidence" which may be reflected in a "useless statistic" rather than a useful one.

They've done a great job of keeping it secret! I can find no reference to the depth of Great Lake. The best I can find is a fishing site (https://tasfish.com/articles/121-lakes/great-lake/172-great-lake-one-of-our-best-for-shore) that, at least in part, lists the history and gives a bunch of numbers totalling a dam height of about 20m. Another one references 20% of hydro capacity being 16.5m from full, which again suggest around 20m a full capacity. Obviously the area gets bigger as the dam fills, but if we ignore that then 80% = 16.5m, so 12.7m below full means it's currently at about 40% full.

If it's genuinely only 40% full after the last couple of wet years (was Tasmania as wet as everywhere else in Australia?) then perhaps keeping it a secret is wise..?

[Cgcc]

In my line of work I've frequently had to work in depth with mining project feasibility and financing studies.

The fact is the sale price is one consideration but it forms but one of many major inputs, including the extraction costs, transport costs, infrastructure requirements (how far as you from a port and what rail infrastructure is in place?).

Frankly, if a project is being financed then financing costs may very well be far more impactful than product prices. If you are going to have to bleed money for 5-10 years and then carry that debt, the interest rates on your financing is liable to be much more important than the sale price.

Because projects can take 5-10 years to get off the ground and start producing, which is when the price is felt, you can predict commodity prices to some extent but not with any precision. Also, a coal mining venture is going to be operating for many years and the relevant price will fluctuate over the period of operation.

Yes you can analyse and factor price into account but it's one of many economic factors. Frankly production costs and infrastructure availability and costs might dwarf in a particular project the volatility you might predict in terms of market price.


I am absolutely amazed that you would make a statement like that, Paul.

One of the first rules of business is to know and understand what your competitors are doing. Competitors include markets and sources of supply. Why mine coal if you can buy in at a cheaper price? Why buy in coal if you can mine it a a lower cost? Ignoance is not bliss. It is ignorance.

I hope someone is doing some benchmarking of which you are not aware.

[Bushmiller]

Competitors include markets and sources of supply. Why mine coal if you can buy in at a cheaper price? Why buy in coal if you can mine it a a lower cost? Ignoance is not bliss. It is ignorance.

I hope someone is doing some benchmarking of which you are not aware.

Graeme

I did say that there was some information I am not at liberty to divulge. What I can say is that we have always had the cheapest coal there is. That is knowledge at some level. Whether it is sufficient, I don't know. What I do know is that, in theory, Millmerran will be the last coal fired power station to be shut down based on efficiency of running, geographical location for grid stability and cost. Whether that happens in reality is quite another matter. As a prominent Forum member states: Theory and Practice are the same in Theory, but not in Practice!

Operations in any power station (I am on my fourth station at this early point in my career) have little to no direct contact with the accounting departments. Operations and the Traders in today's competitive market do have quite a bit of interaction: At times a little more than operations would wish. As a group we would prefer the old directive of make as much power as you can. It is what we have done for over twenty years now. Foot to the floorboards to make an automotive analogy. As far as the business plan is concerned, we have no involvement and certainly no influence unless it affects plant operation. That aspect revolves primarily around maintenance and plant modification. Finance etc. is not for us. I am guessing that you have not worked in a power station so are not privy to the way things are done (or not done :rolleyes: ) there even if it is contrary to your experience.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

Graeme

I did say that there was some information I am not at liberty to divulge. What I can say is that we have always had the cheapest coal there is. That is knowledge at some level. Whether it is sufficient, I don't know. What I do know is that, in theory, Millmerran will be the last coal fired power station to be shut down based on efficiency of running, geographical location for grid stability and cost. Whether that happens in reality is quite another matter. ...

No arguments there Paul.

Have just had a look at Millmerran's ownership structure and history. That benchmarking that I was refering to is more like done in Brisbane, or overseas, rather than in the plant.

You may well have the cheapest coal, but you only know that by monitoring the price of alternative sourcing. That is benchmarking.

[woodPixel]

MIT engineers create an energy-storing supercapacitor from ancient materials | MIT News | Massachusetts Institute of Technology (https://news.mit.edu/2023/mit-engineers-create-supercapacitor-ancient-materials-0731)

[Warb]

And then there's the LK-99 room temperature superconductor, that might​ be real - it's certainly being talked about a great deal!

[GraemeCook]

... If it's genuinely only 40% full after the last couple of wet years (was Tasmania as wet as everywhere else in Australia?) then perhaps keeping it a secret is wise..?

Finally found some almost useful statistics in OTTER - Office of the Tasmanian Economic Regulator - was hard going as they file stuff in strictly alphabetical order - August comes before January - go figure. OTTER confirms that the total lake storage sytem is currently 40.5% full.

529351

Note, however, another weird measurement, which actually makes sense. They measure lake levels in terms of gigawatthours - the amount of electricity that the water will generate when it goes through the turbines. This reflects that not all gigalitres are the same - one at Great Lake will fall further and generate more electricty than the same amount of water elsewhere with a smaller pressure head.

The apparently low level probably reflects:

We have recently come out of a long term drout, and
Hydro has generated too much electricity over a long period.

The latter statement is hard to verify because of the wall of secrecy.

Lake Gordon reached a record low of 6.7% in March 2016, and the statewide storage levels got down to 13% in May that year. Lake Gordon hasn't been anywhere near full for nearly forty years. And statistics that used to be readily available are now "commercial in confidence".
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjfw4-Nrr2AAxWOd2wGHdFjBeEQFnoECAwQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2F2016-03-23%2Ftasmanias-key-hydroelectric-source-lake-gordon-at-record-low%2F7271502&usg=AOvVaw09YbUZBDd6U0iNUIMqOTnR&opi=89978449
Gordon Dam - Wikipedia
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Dam)https://www.economicregulator.tas.gov.au/Documents/Energy%20in%20Tasmania%202015-16%20Report.PDF

[Bushmiller]

Graeme

That is interesting. We visited Tassie over a year ago and were surprised how dry the country was. We had a wet year on the mainland even in traditionally drier areas of the country inland. Tassie had not been receiving it's share at that time. I don't know how rainfall is distributed across the island, but clearly, like all charts, it does not tell the whole story: Probably can't, but an additional factor would be how likely dams are to refill. Is there a wet side of the Island? Nearly three quarters of Tassie's power comes from just a couple of stations. I am sure there is good reasoning behind all that, which is not obvious from dam levels.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

Hello Paul

Hope you enjoyed your holiday.

The West Coast is in the path of the Roaring Forties and is very wet, typically 2,400 mm per year, but not recently. Here are the rainfall figures for Lake Margaret near Queenstown for the last 20 years:

529374

Most of the middle bit is over 4,000 feet so the east coast is in a rainshadow. Hobart is the second driest capiital after Adelaide and averages 626 mm a year, about half that of Sydney.

Most of Australia has a continintal climate, Tasmania's is maritime which moderates it and with the topogrophy also means that it is about micro-climates. As I write, I can see snow on the mountain less than 10 kilometres away, but we are in an inner suburb and are almost frost free. Frosts start less than 100 m from our place!

When they built power stations, the oldest were much smaller than more recent ones. Yes, 70% is in the storage systems is in two systems and three power stations. Water from Great Lake is released to the north:

North: Water first goes through the Poatina Power Station with its 758 metre hydraulic head,
Then the water goes down a canal then into the Macquarie River and onto the Trevallyn Power Station and then through the Cataract Gorge into the Tamar River at Launceston.

The Gordon system has a single power station with a hydraulic head around 200 metres (I couldn't find the figure.)

The next biggest scheme is the complex Derwent Scheme where water is collected from several lakes and rivers and is then "cascaded" through a series of power stations, canals, rivers and lakes - the last is Meadowbank, less than an hours drive from Hobart.

529375


Total system is 40% full, 60% empty, and my crystal ball is cloudy.

[Bushmiller]

Hello Paul

Hope you enjoyed your holiday.



Graeme

I did, I did.

A small digression seeing as how you commented. Amongst other things, I saw The Wall at Derwent Bridge, the carved memorial trees at Legerwood (https://www.woodworkforums.com/f10/legerwood-memorial-trees-chainsaw-sculptures-163250?highlight=ledgerwood), GOMA, Quolls at Cradle Mountain, Apogee winery and (here comes the relevance to this thread) I nearly saw the Duck Reach power station (1895 - 1955). :rolleyes: For some reason I decided not to go, but our daughter walked up and took some pix for me. It was the start of hydro power in Tassie and quite an engineering feat in at the time. In fact, Wikipedia says it was the first hydroelectric scheme in the Southern hemisphere.

529415 529416 529417

As the majority of Tassie's power is renewable from either hydro or wind farms (at least in good times) I would think it may be ideally placed to manufacture green hydrogen. Tassie could be a little like Norway with the electricity production. Already in Norway they have hydrogen powered vehicles and by 2025 you will no longer be able to buy an ICE powered vehicle.

Regards
Paul

PS: I knew there was one other sight. The Mountain Ash in The Styx Valley.

This is how you find it: A "cairn," which in this case is a small pile of rocks, marks the trail entrance:

529411529412

The trees are big, but I don't have to tell the woodworkers that E. Regnans is the tallest hardwood in the world and to be so tall there is a fair amount of girth too.

529413529414

[GraemeCook]

529431

[GraemeCook]

529432

529433 Photo by Paul

[Bushmiller]

529432



Graeme

I did indeed mean MONA. GOMA is the Brisbane art gallery, which is nowhere near as spectacular as the underground museum in Hobart. MOMA more resembles the notorious underground Hellfire caves in the UK: However, David Walsh's creation, while like Lord Dashwood's in principle, is the huge, modern version on a bucket full of steroids and has a far more aesthetic grounding, although not without some controversial exhibits.

The Quolls were in fact at the Tasmanian Devil sanctuary. I have to say I find the bad-tempered Devils quite unappealing. The Quolls on the other hand are delightful. Where we used to live, neighbours (about four Kms away as the crow flies or fifteen Kms on the road) were losing their chooks. They sat out one night to watch the chook enclosure and observed a Quoll physically lift the edge of a corrugated iron sheet to gain access to the chook house. Very strong little creatures even if the iron was rusty deformed chook shed iron. I have seen them in the wild on two occasions but only at some distance.

The "Cairn" does not show up well on Google maps or GPS either. You have to know it is there.

The feat of felling any large tree with the use of boards is spectacular, but imagine the bullock team that would have been required to haul the log! Probably why it and the other big trees in the area are still there.

Apogee was the standout winery we visited. Very understated, but simply the best. We had not appreciated bookings were required as the operation is pretty much a one man band. Nevertheless, Andrew Pirie said you are here now so let's do it. Made the day and the trip. haven't looked back or been sober since. (Not really).

Regards
Paul

PS: Digression over. Back to electricity.

[Warb]

Total system is 40% full, 60% empty, and my crystal ball is cloudy.

From what I was reading, and most of it was fishing sites because they were about the only places where data was available, historically the water level in the Great Lake doesn't vary too much from year to year. I recall it was a very long time between increasing the height of the dam wall and getting anywhere near full. The "clerks" have obviously had great success in using the hydroelectric schemes both to fulfil the 100% green dream for Tasmania, and also to provide an income stream by selling the power to the mainland. But being only 40% full when heading into what most of the meteorological organisations have proclaimed an El Nino could be worrying?

I'm guessing the remaining 40% translates to quite a lot of power, but a couple of years of high air conditioner usage and minimal rainfall might cause some concern, particularly if the refill rate is low even in better times.

[Bushmiller]

But being only 40% full when heading into what most of the meteorological organisations have proclaimed an El Nino could be worrying?

I'm guessing the remaining 40% translates to quite a lot of power, but a couple of years of high air conditioner usage and minimal rainfall might cause some concern, particularly if the refill rate is low even in better times.

Warb

This is exactly the flaw of Hydro power. Being at 40% in itself is not a concern. The uncertainty of future inflows into the dam is a concern. Abnormal weather patterns are frequently the "normal" cycle of events, and ordinarily we don't bother too much about them, unless, like farmers and electricity producers we absolutely depend on them. For those groups water becomes a big issue.

When, back in the 50s and 60s the states formed their electricity bodies, the aim was to ensure "Continuity of Supply." Since privatisation took place, with the exception of Tasmania, which remains in government hands, that is no longer the case. Private companies need to make money.

Regards
Paul

[Warb]

......The uncertainty of future inflows into the dam is a concern. Abnormal weather patterns are frequently the "normal" cycle of events, and ordinarily we don't bother too much about them, unless, like farmers and electricity producers we absolutely depend on them. For those groups water becomes a big issue.

As a recently retired farmer, I agree 100%. It's also interesting that the majority of lifetime and multigenerational farmers that I know (as opposed to people who relatively recently acquired a farm) all seem to say they have seen multi-year droughts, hot years, cold years and massive bushfires many times before - a memory that doesn't fit with the current view that "never before have we seen......"

It's off topic, I know, but I would also say that most of the farmers I've talked to who are believers and "want action" have got their hands out for grants!


When, back in the 50s and 60s the states formed their electricity bodies, the aim was to ensure "Continuity of Supply." Since privatisation took place, with the exception of Tasmania, which remains in government hands, that is no longer the case. Private companies need to make money.

And big private companies, especially the ones on whom we all depend, are in the lucky position of being able to ask for grants and bail outs when everything goes belly-up as a result of their profiteering......

[woodPixel]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/south-americas-largest-lake-gets-dire-warning-as-water-levels-drop/ar-AA1eBXVO (https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/south-americas-largest-lake-gets-dire-warning-as-water-levels-drop/ar-AA1eBXVO) "South America's Largest Lake Gets Dire Warning as Water Levels Drop"

Deadly floodwaters diverted from Beijing inundating outer cities as rescue efforts intensify - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-05/deadly-flooding-in-china-worsens-rescues-evacuations-intensify/102693108) "heaviest rainfall in at least 140 years"

Mid-winter temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius in South America leave climatologists in disbelief - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-04/south-america-extreme-heat-mid-winter-climate-change-scientists/102678662)

....

Today, astoundingly, I saw pollen in the air.

The birds are outside chirping and tweeting as if its spring.

I'm in a t-shirt and no socks, with the doors and windows open to the breeze.

Im in Canberra. It should be freezing.

....

My thoughts go towards our crops.

I'd imagine farming benefits from predictability. When to plant, when to harvest, how much rain/heat/cloud.... this is not my backyard veggie garden where it doesn't matter so much... but for HUGE farm, where 21 million people RELY on industrial food production?

Am I concerned. Hell yes.

[GraemeCook]

... I'm guessing the remaining 40% translates to quite a lot of power, but a couple of years of high air conditioner usage and minimal rainfall might cause some concern, particularly if the refill rate is low even in better times.

Yes; that is the worry.

Back in April 2016 the total storage level got down to 12.8% - that is not a misprint! But it recovered to 40% by early October - six months later.
https://www.themercury.com.au/news/politics/hydro-joy-as-tasmanias-dam-storage-levels-rise-to-40-per-cent/news-story/a358bd84794470fdc999e5c1a794c57d

But now it is still at 40% - seven years later. The rainfall figures for Lake Margaret pretty well explain why.

[GraemeCook]

... and has a far more aesthetic grounding, although not without some controversial exhibits. ...

Depends on whether you recognised anyone? :B

[Warb]

......the notorious underground Hellfire caves in the UK

I grew up a few minutes' walk from those caves, yet never actually went in (as far as I can remember!).

[Bushmiller]

I have mentioned before that the highest demand is nowadays in Summer with Winter having taken second place for some time. Autumn and Spring are the low points. This chart of spot prices for the year so far shows an interesting trend as Spring, a period of low demand, approaches. Up our way the winter has been mild. It would seem that the wholesale market is becoming less expensive: Will that translate into reduced retail prices? Ummm....Don't think so.

529450

Regards
Paul

PS: I should have added that chart above is for the QLD market only.

[AlexS]

I haven't checked, but if you can't find the storage levels on the Hydro site, it may be worth having a fossick around on the BoM website. All that data used to be freely available, but in the interests of "open government" it now seems to be tippy tippy top secret, or you have to pay for it (even though you've paid for it to be collected.)

[GraemeCook]

I haven't checked, but if you can't find the storage levels on the Hydro site, it may be worth having a fossick around on the BoM website. All that data used to be freely available, ....

Quite !

Google cannot find it either. The limited data that I could find was on the OTTER website - the Office of the Tasmanian Economic Regulator.

It is all slight of hand stuff. The data has been published, but not in a logical place. If you ask why data has not been published they can truthfully answer: "We did, you looked in the wrong place." The subtext, of course, is: "Silly you. Why would any honest person be checking on what we are doing?"

[woodPixel]

Quite !

Google cannot find it either. The limited data that I could find was on the OTTER website - the Office of the Tasmanian Economic Regulator.

It is all slight of hand stuff. The data has been published, but not in a logical place. If you ask why data has not been published they can truthfully answer: "We did, you looked in the wrong place." The subtext, of course, is: "Silly you. Why would any honest person be checking on what we are doing?"

“But the plans were on display…”
“On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them.”
“That’s the display department.”
“With a flashlight.”
“Ah, well, the lights had probably gone.”
“So had the stairs.”
“But look, you found the notice, didn’t you?”
“Yes,” said Arthur, “yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard.”

[doug3030]

“But the plans were on display…”
“On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them.”
“That’s the display department.”
“With a flashlight.”
“Ah, well, the lights had probably gone.”
“So had the stairs.”
“But look, you found the notice, didn’t you?”
“Yes,” said Arthur, “yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard.”

“Zaphod did not want to tangle with them and, deciding that just as discretion is the better part of valor, so was cowardice is the better part of discretion, he valiantly hid himself in a closet.”

[FenceFurniture]

The birds are outside chirping and tweeting as if its spring.Today I noticed that the big Rhododendron next to the house has not only started flowering (6 weeks ahead of normal) but that there were parts of the flowers already dropped to the ground.


I'm in a t-shirt and no socks.I do hope, for the sake of the family, that the T-shirt is not wet.

[Bushmiller]

Well, after all our comments on Tasmanian self-sufficiency,i was surprised to see this article:

'You couldn’t make this stuff up’: Irony as Tasmania's 'battery of the nation' is flat (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/you-couldn-t-make-this-stuff-up-irony-as-tasmania-s-battery-of-the-nation-is-flat/ar-AA1f572h?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=873fbbe3071c4954a53d0742ab5546ee&ei=26)

I have to say I don't hold Sky News in high regard as I find their reporting highly biased, as opposed to moderately biased with many other outlets. In fact everybody has at least some bias. However, I felt some obligation to mention my prejudice, which I hasten to add is not as extreme as that of SWMBO, who has anything to do with Murdock banned from her devices.

If this report has any truth in it, and I do say "if" until it is corroborated by another media outlet without any affinity to the Murdock press, it would appear that the Tasmania power company is a slow learner or failing that, just plain greedy. They sold power to the mainland in the lead up to the Bass Strait DC connection failure, which admittedly they could not have foreseen, but now they appear to have sold power to the mainland again and left themselves short.

:doh:

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

I saw a comment today (somewhere) that we were not taking nuclear power seriously. It cited the main barrier to nukes as the initial cost, which the article went on to say was insufficient to discount them. I really didn't pay too much attention as it seemed the author was pushing his own barrel or didn't know what he was talking about.

Then a few moments ago I saw this:

Nuclear waste dump King hit, Indigenous owners rejoice (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/nuclear-waste-dump-king-hit-indigenous-owners-rejoice/ar-AA1f4joa?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1794badbfb8f4e69abd027baf0c70868&ei=23)

It appears, not unsurprisingly, that nobody wants one of these in their back yard. Bear in mind that this facility in SA was really only intended for medical nuclear waste such as is produced at Lucas Heights. The lack of feasible waste disposal sites means that Nuclear stations are obliged to store their used (partially used that is) rods on site in the containment areas. It was those containment areas that exacerbated the problems at Fukushima and Chernobyl.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

Is there a mounting campaign forming in the background following on from my comment yesterday.

The Coalition's Ted O'Brien has been making noises:

Coalition prepares to go nuclear in search of votes (thenewdaily.com.au) (https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2023/08/10/coalition-nuclear-power-option/?utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020230811&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Adestra&lr_hash=)

In theory Nuclear is an answer, but in practice the proponents ignore or gloss over the fundamental hurdles.

Labour minister Cris Bowen was asked for comment:

“We look forward to the costings and the locations of the nuclear power stations when the shadow minister releases them,”
The advantages, for Australia, include local access to the fuel, minimal emissions and a clear path towards zero emissions.

The disadvantages include:

High initial cost, long lead time for construction, location difficulties, safety issues, operating costs (as opposed to running costs as the fuel once running is certainly cheap), humungus decommissioning costs and the perennial issue of what to do with the nuclear waste and indeed the contaminated plant at the end of life.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

Well, after all our comments on Tasmanian self-sufficiency,i was surprised to see this article:

'You couldn’t make this stuff up’: Irony as Tasmania's 'battery of the nation' is flat (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/you-couldn-t-make-this-stuff-up-irony-as-tasmania-s-battery-of-the-nation-is-flat/ar-AA1f572h?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=873fbbe3071c4954a53d0742ab5546ee&ei=26)

I have to say I don't hold Sky News in high regard ...

Must say that I agree with your assessment of Sky News.

The article is essentially a beat up, or FAKE NEWS as their idol would say. I'll just repeat my post from last week:


... Back in April 2016 the total storage level got down to 12.8% - that is not a misprint! But it recovered to 40% by early October - six months later.
https://www.themercury.com.au/news/p...99e5c1a794c57d (https://www.themercury.com.au/news/politics/hydro-joy-as-tasmanias-dam-storage-levels-rise-to-40-per-cent/news-story/a358bd84794470fdc999e5c1a794c57d)

But now it is still at 40% - seven years later. ...

In that period Tasmania has been in a drought and the Hydro has probably sold more electricity than was prudent, but the situation is not dire. It was dire in 2016 when storage levels got down to 12.8%.

Less than 1% of electricity in Tas is gas generated and as best as I am able to penetrate Hydro's wall of silence, reputably they keep the Tamar Valley gas powered plant "ticking over" as the cheapest way of mothballing it.

The stuff about exclusion zones around high voltage transmission lines is just false - genuine FAKE NEWS. Farmers routinely crop and graze under transmission lines; they are not allowed to erect buildings.

I think the purpose of this article was in the last two sentences including: "There will be electoral punishment right across the board".

[Bushmiller]

Thanks Graeme

I am still sufficiently naive to think that outright lies are not told. Certainly the farming comment I thought was strange. Also the pricing structure used by Tasmania in the wholesale market does not reflect that they are short of power. I might have to consider an embargo on the Murdoch press and fall into line with SWMBO. I don't do this because I wish to evaluate where everybody is coming from. I should have known better seeing as how Abbott's ex-lieutenant was at the helm!

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

Deleted

[GraemeCook]

Thanks Graeme

I am still sufficiently naive to think that outright lies are not told. Certainly the farming comment I thought was strange.

I am reminded of that quote from H L Mencken almost one hundred years ago:
"No one ... has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby."
(The Sun, Baltimore, 18 September 1926)

Perhaps we should apply a similar logic when assessing the competence of yournalists?
But I think we should make a exception with a certain news organistion which practices overt political manipulation from an ultra right wing perspective.
And their journalists, and the journalist's directors, are following orders from on high or anticipating Mencken.


Also the pricing structure used by Tasmania in the wholesale market does not reflect that they are short of power.

True; but what does it reflect?

I drew this to your attention back in mid-May. The Hydro seems to be dumping electricity on the spot market in peak periods every day at prices well below true market price. Why? Here is the current Spot Market report from AEMO:

529665


You will not the apparently fixed low price during the peak period from 5.00 - 11.00 pm last night - first red circle - and you will note that the regulator has anticipated that same low fixed price tonight - second or green circle. Why? Also remember that these are spot prices and not contract prices.

I have been trying to guess why it is so; a number of possibilities, including:

Secret deal where the state government has directed the Hydro to sell electricity to Aurora/Transend at a directed maximum price,
Incompetent clerk at the commodity trading desk,
Corruption,
None of the above.




I might have to consider an embargo on the Murdoch press and fall into line with SWMBO.

I stopped buying newspapers about ten years ago.

[Bushmiller]

You will not the apparently fixed low price during the peak period from 5.00 - 11.00 pm last night - first red circle - and you will note that the regulator has anticipated that same low fixed price tonight - second or green circle. Why? Also remember that these are spot prices and not contract prices.

I have been trying to guess why it is so; a number of possibilities, including:

Secret deal where the state government has directed the Hydro to sell electricity to Aurora/Transend at a directed maximum price,
Incompetent clerk at the commodity trading desk,
Corruption,
None of the above.






Graeme

I am at a complete loss to explain this strategy. It is clearly deliberate and has been ongoing for some months so that rules out your No.2 hypothesis. I did run it past our Traders, but they only confirmed what we see without any other explanation.

Regards
Paul

[Warb]

But I think we should make a exception with a certain news organistion which practices overt political manipulation from an ultra right wing perspective.

I don't think that it's only "a" news organisation that practices political manipulation on behalf of one or other side of politics. The ABC over here (and the BBC in the UK) are both clearly left leaning, perhaps not to the same degree as Fox is right leaning, but significant bias is still present. Most other news sources are also biased one way or the other, and it's very hard to get to the "truth".

Every morning my wife and I share the same joke regarding CNN and Fox - "should we see what evil Trump has committed today, or how bad Biden and his son are?". One interesting observation is that, at least in my eyes and the brief sections I flick through at breakfast time, Fox often seem to be making a joke of the whole thing, over-acting and not taking any of it too seriously. CNN on the other hand always seem very serious, it's all life and death and the smallest trivia is debated at length as though it's the end of the world....

Another example of the political manipulation of news, and related to our discussion here about hydro, is an article about the rivers in Iraq drying up. One article I read recently attributes this to climate change. Another, whilst also initially blaming climate change to some degree, later admits that all the rivers in the system, and their tributaries in other countries, have in fact had multiple dams built, been redirected for agricultural irrigation, and subject to ever increasing extraction to provide water to the ever-increasing human populations of the area. This human intervention has both massively reduced the "normal" flow, and also largely eradicated the annual floods that cleared the silt and fertilised the river flats. So depending on which article you read, and how far through it you go, this is either entirely due to climate change or almost entirely due to direct human intervention. The journalists are clearly trying to push an opinion, rather than publicising facts and allowing the reader/viewer to make up their own mind.

It's very hard to get to the truth these days!

[GraemeCook]

I don't think that it's only "a" news organisation that practices political manipulation on behalf of one or other side of politics.

Fully agree. Their is consistent biases in the news organisations.

However, my specifier "a" was linked to the adjectives "overt" and "ultra". Only one significant mob meets all those criteria?



Most other news sources are also biased one way or the other, and it's very hard to get to the "truth".

The interesting one is trying to pin down the biases in the SBS. They definitely exist; at first I thought they were "anti-Anglophone", but that is not an adequate descriptor.



... later admits that all the rivers in the system, and their tributaries in other countries, have in fact had multiple dams built, been redirected for agricultural irrigation, and subject to ever increasing extraction to provide water to the ever-increasing human populations of the area. This human intervention has both massively reduced the "normal" flow, and also largely eradicated the annual floods that cleared the silt and fertilised the river flats.

And we have done the same with the Murray System! It is not just a third world problem.


It's very hard to get to the truth these days!

Now ain't dat da truth!

[Warb]

However, my specifier "a" was linked to the adjectives "overt" and "ultra". Only one significant mob meets all those criteria?

In Australia "a" (?!) is indeed most overt in its bias. Having said that, for a while I read a newspaper blog, which is or was in fact another newspaper blog under a different name. At that point in time, not only was the editorial content significantly left-leaning (perhaps not "ultra" but certainly heading that way) but the "moderated comments" section was so "modern, politically correct left wing" as to almost be a parody. Very few comments of even centre-left ever got through "moderation" and if that blog and its comments were your only source of information, you'd have believed that everything slightly right of centre had basically ceased to exist. They added to that impression by ensuring that every now and again they allowed an extreme right wing comment to get through, which of course was then screamed at by the outraged "average reader".

Internationally, I find one major news source to be equally obvious and extreme in their bias, though they do it with a straight face as opposed to another's showboating.

The interesting point here is that all these organisations are businesses and cater to the whims of their customers. Yes, they could be seen as trying to manipulate their consumers, but I would think that the majority of their consumers are already leaning the same way as their supplier - other than those who enjoy shouting at the television! With that in mind, it could be argued that the right wing media will inherently be loud and showboaty, whilst the left wing media will be serious and "deep" - the media is supplying what they believe the viewers want, in the way they want it. Perhaps in the opinion of the media, the right-leaning viewer is brash and thinks everything can be fixed "easily" by applying Christianity, punishment or tradition, whilst the left-leaning consumer sees themself as someone who considers things deeply and has "modern" values based on understanding. I suspect this even extends to the choice and appearance of the presenters themselves. Marketing is a science, after all!

If that is the case, then perhaps it is inevitable that left-leaning media organisations "appear" less biased or extreme..?

[Bushmiller]

Just a word of caution on the bias of media outlets. Where it applies to truth or deceit I think it is valid to mention it, particularly when it is giving a deliberately false impression. However, the Forum has quite a strict ruling against political comment. This, I believe, is for a number of reasons, but included would be the fact it is so easy to get people offside. The other main reason is that it is quite easy to fall into defamatory territory: The Forum does not enjoy the same "privilege" as parliament and should an individual or an organisation take exception to a comment made by a Forum member, we would find that they have much deeper pockets than us and we would be lucky to having anything left that even had pockets in it should they decide to go into battle through the courts!

Don't get me wrong on this as I have been warned in the past so I am just passing on information. Ooops; There goes the halo.

On a completely different note, I have banged on about Norway in recent times and how they seem to be so far advanced in renewable power compared to almost anybody else, but certainly compared to Australia. Our son, who is living in Norway sent us this brief comment a few days ago:

529697

A few words of explanation: "Tibber" is the energy provider such as Ergon or Energex or a whole host of other providers in Oz. Between the hours of 0300 and 0400 the retail price that day went to a minus figure. In fact the provider pays the consumer if they use power during that period and it is deducted from the bill.

Before we all go 'I want some of that," the hour is pretty inhospitable. There are 100ore to the kroner and 7Noc (Norweigian Kroner) is approx A$1.00. I think that makes it a little less than 1c/kWhr and you have to find something to consume the power at that time in the morning. (Your EV?) However, the principle is to encourage power useage outside of peak periods.

Regards
Paul

PS: No significance with the dog other than it belongs to our son and his partner and as of one month their new daughter. It is an Alaskan Husky (retired from sled duties) and goes by the name of "Sorry." It appears there was a litter of six pups and a small Japanese girl, who was learning English, was given the task of naming them. She only had about six words of English (which was very convenient) and "Sorry" was one of the words. :)

[419]

The other main reason is that it is quite easy to fall into defamatory territory: The Forum does not enjoy the same "privilege" as parliament and should an individual or an organisation take exception to a comment made by a Forum member, we would find that they have much deeper pockets than us and we would be lucky to having anything left that even had pockets in it should they decide to go into battle through the courts!

The potential for legal and financial disaster is very rarely understood by people ['the publishers'] who run forums, online groups and other places where people can post comments.

The publishers can be liable for defamatory comments made by people on their sites, even if the publishers are unaware of the comments.

It's one of the reasons which has inhibited my occasional inclination to start a YouTube channel publishing videos on handyman topics. I've seen various channels descend into rabid defamatory comments in the subscriber comments which are just s**tfights between touchy, trolling or loony subscribers, which I have neither the time nor interest to police if I start a channel. The subscribers are legally liable for defamation but much harder to identify than the publisher, which in my case for legal purposes would be me, not YouTube. Same applies to someone running a group or page on Facebook, Instagram etc. In the case of stand alone sites like woodworkforums.com it's whoever owns the site.

A plain English outline of the law is at High Court rules media liable for Facebook comments on their stories - The University of Sydney (https://www.sydney.edu.au/law/news-and-events/news/2021/09/13/high-court-rules-media-liable-for-facebook-comments-on-stories.html) .

[Warb]

Just a word of caution on the bias of media outlets. Where it applies to truth or deceit I think it is valid to mention it, particularly when it is giving a deliberately false impression. However, the Forum has quite a strict ruling against political comment. This, I believe, is for a number of reasons, but included would be the fact it is so easy to get people offside. The other main reason is that it is quite easy to fall into defamatory territory: The Forum does not enjoy the same "privilege" as parliament and should an individual or an organisation take exception to a comment made by a Forum member, we would find that they have much deeper pockets than us and we would be lucky to having anything left that even had pockets in it should they decide to go into battle through the courts!

Don't get me wrong on this as I have been warned in the past so I am just passing on information. Ooops; There goes the halo.

Whilst I have no complaints about any forum having rules to prevent trouble, I do find it interesting that when organisations or businesses are so keen on heading off any negative or even "questioning" comment about their motives - presumably they feel the sand under their feet is so insecure that they need to prevent anyone poking it! But back to electricity.........

[Bushmiller]

Thank you 419 and Warb for your comment. I needed to mention the situation, not that I think anybody has transgressed at this stage. I felt it was better for us to self-moderate than cause an administrator the hassle of intervening. This thread has been a mature discussion for close to 90 pages and something of which the contributing Forum members should be proud.

I also edited my post as it appears the pic did not load. I also modified the conversion rate as I think I had it ten times to large. :rolleyes: I also mentioned that, if it were me, I would be using the hour concerned to charge my EV (on the biggest charger I could find).

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

Queensland in this report looks like it is making big inroads into the emission target, but it is still the bad boy:

Emission Control: Australia’s most coal dependant state now halfway to achieving 2030 renewable energy target (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/emission-control-australia-s-most-coal-dependant-state-now-halfway-to-achieving-2030-renewable-energy-target/ar-AA1fdixb?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=4c53a90bf6b246e694c533d9c9e71cea&ei=13)

I won't re-hash the content as you can read if interested.

This chart I found interesting:

529698

Regards
Paul

[Warb]

The graphic of highest emitters is interesting, but perhaps like the dam being 12m from full it doesn't, by itself, mean all that much. Comparing the NT at 3.5% with NSW at 25.1% makes NSW look bad. However, if you factor in this share of GDP data (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_states_and_territories_by_gross_state_product) which shows the NT at 1.34% of the national economy whilst NSW is at 32.09%, then emission per unit of GDP is far lower in NSW. From the same data, NSW has 31 times as many people, yet only 7 times the emissions.

I've also noticed over the years and the many articles I've read, that the "accounting" of emissions varies to suit the case being made. For example, I've seen the carbon emissions from coal attributed to the consumer of power (our houses and industry), to the grid, and also to the mine where the coal was extracted. In reality, if 1kw of power from coal produces (from memory) around 0.9kg of CO2, then whilst that 0.9kg can be split between "emitters", it can't be accounted for twice. Equally coal used for smelting, or any other purpose, can only have its emissions counted once, even if apportioned between extractor and user. So perhaps the NT is having the coal it extracts attributed to it, whilst the actual emission is powering the economy of another state? Or another country?

On a different subject, I've now established that even on an overcast, cloudy and rainy day, my newly upgraded PV+batteries system is able to produce 100% of my power (although heating is by wood burner, and I plant way more trees than I burn!), but under such conditions it only manages to export enough to cover about half of my daily supply charge. However even at this time of the year (winter) and with my 5kW feed-in limit, 2 typical days produces enough excess feed-in to cover the deficit from the rainy day.

My next task will be to install (or rather to have the electrician install) Shelly controls, to enable me to automagically switch on loads such as water heating when solar production is high, and to monitor our consumption in greater detail. I'm enjoying this project!

[Mr Brush]

I guess the closer we get to self-sufficiency energy nirvana (home storage batteries, V2H from EVs, etc.), the harder the established generating/distribution organisations will push back.......desperately trying to fend off the inevitable irrelevance. One reason I'm an early adopter is that the costs to remaining customers to maintain the grid can only go up as more and more of us move away from buying our power.