Future of the Australian Electricity Market

[havabeer69]

Victoria already charges ev owners by the km
EV at 2.6c and plug in hybrids @2.1c.
Self declared with reg renewal.
"to compensate for loss of petrol tax"

Although they still kindly offer $100 annual rego discount..

so when does it actually get checked/lodged

whats to stop the rort of "i only drove it 2000K's this year" but actually put 15,000 on it? I could understand if during a pink slip the person doing the rego check does it, but you don't need a pink slip on cars less then 5 years old (in nsw)

[ian]

so when does it actually get checked/lodged

whats to stop the rort of "i only drove it 2000K's this year" but actually put 15,000 on it? I could understand if during a pink slip the person doing the rego check does it, but you don't need a pink slip on cars less then 5 years old (in nsw)
as far as I know -- ha ha -- for the past 5 to 10 years, all BEVs and Hybrids came with continuous GPS positioning which automatically (as in can't turn it off) records distance travelled.
Rather trivial to remote query the GPS as to how far the vehicle has travelled in the past week, month, quarter, year, etc. This data is already collected for ICE vehicles, so there should be no privacy concerns about the ATO knowing.

Then it would be not much harder to include in the query "where has the vehicle exceeded the posted speed limit in the period in question?"
Which does lead to significant privacy concerns, as the question is very blunt with no nuance for why the speed limit was exceeded.

The issue will then be kms travelled on private roads -- currently refunded as fuel excise system -- and kms travelled on public roads, which is captured within the fuel excise tax.

.
.

The Federal and State governments have been working on this issue (how to tax EVs) for something like the past 15 years.

[russ57]

No need for backdoor readings. And just because the vehicle monitors its own travel doesn't mean it is publishing it.
Requirement is to send a photo of odometer. Trivial to have ocr to extract the current reading.
I suppose if one had a second vehicle with similar display but lower kms you could send the readings from it instead. So long as it doesn't get sold or scrapped before the ev...

[woodPixel]

Makes one wonder what the ultimate purpose of an odometer really is.

If one fibbed on the taxes/km paid, then it could be taken out of your hide when the car is sold?

I'd imagine it might be a compulsory part of insurance soon(?). I get a discount as I travel less than 10k km/yr. I effectively go nowhere, so their risk is lower. It doesn't take much imagination to see this system abused by Them...

[havabeer69]

has no one heard of photoshop :U

[Beardy]

They could easily use the existing authorised pink slip inspection system to do an official odometre reading and lodge it on the system as a mandatory requirement before you can renew your rego

[Bushmiller]

They could easily use the existing authorised pink slip inspection system to do an official odometre reading and lodge it on the system as a mandatory requirement before you can renew your rego

Beardy

That would only work in states such as NSW where there are yearly mandatory checkups. However, perhaps a yearly odometer check could be organised in other states such as QLD.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

That would only work in states such as NSW where there are yearly mandatory checkups. Only for cars >3 years old in NSW.

[Bushmiller]

Only for cars >3 years old in NSW.

Only when you sell your car in QLD.

Regards
Paul

[Beardy]

Beardy

That would only work in states such as NSW where there are yearly mandatory checkups. However, perhaps a yearly odometer check could be organised in other states such as QLD.

Regards
Paul

Agree it would be easier to apply to the NSW system but still would not be an enormous event to implement a similar system elsewhere. There are plenty of chain store operators that would take on the agency to boost revenue and get people into their stores

[woodPixel]

Even 2 cents per km is only $200 for 10,000.

One COULD lie, but whats the point?

It could be as simple as:

- A portal where one logs in, advises the rego and Km, pays with a card and you're done*, OR
- Done yearly with ones tax (as if the ATO couldn't get everyone's rego anyway)
- Advised to the insurer once per year (have a crash and the numbers are vastly wrong?... "what insurance, sir?")
- At the time of a service (of some kind)
- Telemetry reported by the car as part of its existing processes (of updates, battery condition, energy sharing, etc)

and ultimately, collected at the time of sale or being written off.

All of these would be trivial to implement.


* this is EXACTLY what happens in the ACT now.

[ian]

Even 2 cents per km is only $200 for 10,000.

One COULD lie, but what's the point?
an "typical" ICE vehicle achieves about 10 l/100km, so 10,000 km would equate to around 1000 litres of fuel, which at the current fuel excise rate of 46 cents/litre is around $460.

Decrease the fuel efficiency of the ICE and/or increase the annual mileage travelled and you're starting to look at an amount where lying about the km travelled starts to become worthwhile.


The way I've always looked at fuel excise is that it's vehicle usage tax that in part pays for road construction and maintenance, in part compensates for the externalities of using a motor vehicle -- e.g. hospital costs for persons injured in vehicle crashes, general pollution (dust from rubber tyres, etc)
Not that the money raised through the excise tax is not explicitly directed towards the externalities associated with using a motor vehicle.

[Bushmiller]

Market spot prices have been a little less volatile of late. I thought these few might be of interest:

522634

The Wed figures were only a prediction and not actual.
The day with the highest range of spot prices resulted in the lowest average price.
The day with the highest demand resulted in the highest spot price. This is to be expected.
These prices only for QLD
There are demand stats for four states.

Nothing to do with these figures, but there is a high temperature forecast for this coming weekend (Sunday in particular) and correspondingly high market prices.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

A little bit about Hydrogen: This came from CS Energy and is a little bit of self-inflation without too much detail. They do identify that industry and heavy transport could be the main benefactors where batteries, as they currently exist, are impractical.

CS Energy Queensland | Power Generator in Queensland (csenergytomorrow.com.au) (https://csenergytomorrow.com.au/?gclid=CjwKCAiA3pugBhAwEiwAWFzwdejqEkbtSS5Sm4KX7hVYeXxlvOZtOzkN5AGAaRAWShzCHa2CC0AyLhoC-bcQAvD_BwE)

However, this is for the various colours and is to some extent onanism :wink::

Colours of Hydrogen | Understanding the Spectrum of Hydrogen (csenergytomorrow.com.au) (https://csenergytomorrow.com.au/colours-of-hydrogen/)


Really, only Yellow (I hadn't realised there was any distinction from green) and Green hydrogen have any worthwhile benefit.

This is a video of the transportation of the replacement generator for the unit damaged at Callide C4. I don't think they specify too much detail (again), but elsewhere I have seen that the weight was 600 tonnes and the length of the road train was 120m. It would be interesting at roundabouts and on the fast corners. Quite a few prime movers and lots of self steering wheels.

Road transfer of Callide Unit C4 new generator stator - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_6dMpTf7NI)

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

When I did chemistry in school, Paul, hydrogen used to be an odourless, colourless, tasteless gas. Don't really understand how you can paint it in rainbow colours.

Think this stuff has come from the commissar for propaganda and not from the engineering department.

[Bushmiller]

When I did chemistry in school, Paul, hydrogen used to be an odourless, colourless, tasteless gas. Don't really understand how you can paint it in rainbow colours.

Think this stuff has come from the commissar for propaganda and not from the engineering department.

Graeme

I think the use of Hydrogen as a fuel has "evolved." When it was first touted so many people said, "what a jolly good idea," or words to that effect and followed quickly with "we will have some of that cake." Then upspoke some genius who pointed out that if the object was to have a fuel source that did not produce CO2 emissions it wasn't really feasible to burn fossil fuel to produce this hydrogen. Now this in no way deterred the rascal element of hydrogen production continuing to state how good their hydrogen was even if it used gas to make the hydrogen. In fact, if you are going to use a fossil fuel for this purpose, you would be better off (less CO2 emissions) just burning the fossil fuel direct.

To our enlightened Forum readers this is painfully obvious and in truth you don't need a genius to point this out. You just need half a brain that has been severely impacted by alcohol and it sticks out like the proverbials.

However, not everybody is a Forum member and for those a colour scheme was formulated. It was probably originally intended to be aired on "Playschool" and targeted at the under fives, but has inevitably found it's way into the greater populace and has now gained traction even with respected news organisations (not too many of those about, but that's another story). Of course, you are quite right and the colour is just the same as when we were at school.

:)

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

Its too complex.

It should be just a number.

100 is pure evil. It is H2 that uses irreplaceable resources and emits CO2 as part of its production.

1 is good, sweet, loving H2. It is generated using Science and no irreplaceable resources were used in its creation, nor its creation emitted CO2, nor needed some carbon-capture-offset rubbish mumbo jumbo to hide the fact its actually evil.



1 is not taxed.
100 is taxed.
The tax scale slides as a percentage, at the percentage of its determined creation Evilness and CO2 emission. Said tax percentage goes from 1 to 100....
This will enthusiastically encourage vendors to develop the most clean, the most environmentally sound, the greenest possible H2... or they pay a heavy price to input it into the market.
Consumers will avoid heavily taxed H2 in favour of lighter taxed manufacturers.
It will also act as a subsidy to encourage science based solutions, rather than dig-and-burn solutions.
and from there... its all rather obvious.


After all, Hydrogen is number 1. :D

[Mobyturns]

Its too complex.

It should be just a number.

100 is pure evil. It is H2 that uses irreplaceable resources and emits CO2 as part of its production.

1 is good, sweet, loving H2. It is generated using Science and no irreplaceable resources were used in its creation, nor its creation emitted CO2, nor needed some carbon-capture-offset rubbish mumbo jumbo to hide the fact its actually evil.



1 is not taxed.
100 is taxed.
The tax scale slides as a percentage, at the percentage of its determined creation Evilness and CO2 emission. Said tax percentage goes from 1 to 100....
This will enthusiastically encourage vendors to develop the most clean, the most environmentally sound, the greenest possible H2... or they pay a heavy price to input it into the market.
Consumers will avoid heavily taxed H2 in favour of lighter taxed manufacturers.
It will also act as a subsidy to encourage science based solutions, rather than dig-and-burn solutions.
and from there... its all rather obvious.


After all, Hydrogen is number 1. :D

Ahh ... but .... you are talking about evilness to the extreme when it comes to suppliers of go juice.

They will come up with a cunning plan to sell "1" as "100" with tax levied upon the hapless customer but then pocket the said tax through a convoluted corporate structure and an offshore tax haven. :rolleyes:

[GraemeCook]

Ahh ... but .... you are talking about evilness to the extreme when it comes to suppliers of go juice.

They will come up with a cunning plan to sell "1" as "100" with tax levied upon the hapless customer but then pocket the said tax through a convoluted corporate structure and an offshore tax haven. :rolleyes:

Way back in the 1950's when Australia had a 18% inflation and a Price Justification Tribunal charged with fighting inflation, I had a friend who was an accountant with the PJT. They had a client who imported white goods and advised that "they added a margin of 1% to most product lines and up to 2% on others." Nevertheless, they were still audited.

It all evolved on their definition of 1%. They imported goods with a cost into store (CIS) of $100, after purchase price, freight, customs, insurance, etc had all been paid, then they added "1%" and wholesaled the goods for $200, unless they thought they could get away with $300.

Tezza still insists that he believes that this and a couple of other companies is the reason that major white goods manufacturers brought in the agency marketing model.

[woodPixel]

An interesting article on microgeneration of zappies.

Melbourne scientists find enzyme that can make electricity out of tiny amounts of hydrogen - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-09/monash-university-air-electricity-enzyme-soil/102071786)

[FenceFurniture]

In today's news there is an article about relieving fixed export limits for solar panels to the grid.
World-first flexible export limits are coming to rooftop solar. Here'''s how they work - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2023-03-14/rooftop-solar-flexible-export-limits-are-coming-to-your-suburb/102074712)

This is the kind of simple but brilliant tech that will get us there. Flooding the grid apparently only happens around 2 % of the time, or something ridiculously small, so until now the whole system gets choked down all the time and solar generated power is just being wasted.

[GraemeCook]

Nicely spotted, FF.

That problem must be particularly accute in South Australia because they source such a high percentage of their electricity from renewables - an incredible 66% from solar and wind. On a windy, sunny day the overloads must be incredible.

Tasmania is over 99% renewables - 80% hydro and 20% solar plus wind. The other states are lagging.

523739

Western Australia still generates around 85% of its electricity from fossil fuels - only 15% from renewables - solar + wind. Silly me, I thought WA was sunny!

[Bushmiller]

In today's news there is an article about relieving fixed export limits for solar panels to the grid.
World-first flexible export limits are coming to rooftop solar. Here'''s how they work - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2023-03-14/rooftop-solar-flexible-export-limits-are-coming-to-your-suburb/102074712)

This is the kind of simple but brilliant tech that will get us there. Flooding the grid apparently only happens around 2 % of the time, or something ridiculously small, so until now the whole system gets choked down all the time and solar generated power is just being wasted.

Thanks FF

The "flooding " of the grid only happens occasionally during low demand periods coupled with high wind and solar generation. It is true to say that at this stage of the game only SA has the capacity to supply it's electrical demand with 100% renewables: But only rarely. Really there should be an emphasis on facilities to store the surplus energy and that is the area that requires the most attention.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

Graeme

Those are interesting statistics you have posted. However, while true in some regards they may be a little mis-misleading in others. I am in no way suggesting that was your intention. However, a couple of comments would be:

1. Although SA has the highest percentage of renewables, it is the percentage of their demand, which is the smallest of all the states excepting Tasmania. However, Tassie is only a little smaller. I think QLD has the highest percentage of renewables, but with a demand averaging around three times that of SA the percentage is well down based on that demand figure.

2. The split for SA only indicates renewables and gas. What happened to the 500MW interconnector from Victoria where the predominance is brown coal? Without that interconnector SA would be down the gurgler.

I imagine that somewhere in the fine print of those stats there is a reference to daytime consumption or some other qualification.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

Hi Paul

That bar chart was produced by the Federal Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water - what a mouthful - in April last year. Hopefully, it will be updated next month? The chart depicts electricity produced in each state and territory - it does not say anything about transfers or ultimate consumption.

My understanding of the "grid overload" or "flooding" problem is that grid-wide it is an infrequent issue. However, at the micro level, it is quite a common occurence. Small geographic areas may be sunny and windy and produce excess electricity and that sector of the grid gets overloaded faster that the energy can be transferred elsewhere. Essentailly, the grid is set up to transfer electricity into suburbs, not out, but that a process of adaptation is underway.

I do not understand your comment about Queensland. According to the DCCEEW bar chart, Western Australia is the only state that produces a lower percentage of its electricity from renewables than Queensland.

Who names government departments? I can remember one and two word names.

The thing that struck me about the bar chart is how different the sourcing of electricity is between the states.

[havabeer69]

Wait to see what happens when liddle power station shuts down next month

Theres 900mw out of the grid.

[Bushmiller]

Hi Paul



I do not understand your comment about Queensland. According to the DCCEEW bar chart, Western Australia is the only state that produces a lower percentage of its electricity from renewables than Queensland.



Graeme

I think the percentage relates to the individual state generation. Therefore SA may be able to supply, at times, 100% of a low demand. Say 1500MW. So assume they have a 1500MW capability. QLD may also be able to deliver 1500MW but as a percentage of a 6000MW demand that would only show up as 25% on the bar chart. If QLD can supply 2200MW of renewables they would clearly have more capability than SA but as a percentage of demand it doesn't look as good.

Now, don't take my figures as precise, because they most certainly are not. I chose those figures to make the sums easy. However, I think it makes the point and hence my early comment about who produces the most.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

Wait to see what happens when liddle power station shuts down next month

Theres 900mw out of the grid.

HAB

We may see the two interconnectors from QLD to NSW running hot for quite a while!

Regards
Paul

[Nutz]

In today's news there is an article about relieving fixed export limits for solar panels to the grid.
World-first flexible export limits are coming to rooftop solar. Here'''s how they work - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2023-03-14/rooftop-solar-flexible-export-limits-are-coming-to-your-suburb/102074712)

This is the kind of simple but brilliant tech that will get us there. Flooding the grid apparently only happens around 2 % of the time, or something ridiculously small, so until now the whole system gets choked down all the time and solar generated power is just being wasted.

We already have a flexible limit designed into every inverter which will throttle your export as the grid voltage rises and cut off your export at 255v. For most people in suburbs with lots of solar this happens every day during peak solar generation and for a lot of rural properties as well. The problem is the grid was never designed for rooftop solar and limiting export to 5kw is the only way to have equity. In fact the solar generation is so great during the day that generators are quite often paying for people to take the excess supply.

We can never get to 80% renewable or even 50% without a massive investment in the grid infrastructure.

[yvan]

We already have a flexible limit designed into every inverter which will throttle your export as the grid voltage rises and cut off your export at 255v. For most people in suburbs with lots of solar this happens every day during peak solar generation and for a lot of rural properties as well. The problem is the grid was never designed for rooftop solar and limiting export to 5kw is the only way to have equity. In fact the solar generation is so great during the day that generators are quite often paying for people to take the excess supply.

We can never get to 80% renewable or even 50% without a massive investment in the grid infrastructure.

Well, reducing the number of "nookelar" submarines ordered by one single unit should be enough to cover the "massive investment in the grid infrastructure" and wouldn't take 20 or 30 years to start seeing a difference....!!

[Nutz]

Well, reducing the number of "nookelar" submarines ordered by one single unit should be enough to cover the "massive investment in the grid infrastructure" and wouldn't take 20 or 30 years to start seeing a difference....!!

Totally agree, we got fleeced on the sub deals. Countries thrive or die on the cost of energy and the only countries that are lowering their energy costs are China and Russia. Mind you China holds third world status so is not required to meet any future emissions targets and will likely receive "compensation" from countries like Australia.

I can recall only one blackout this year but that is likely to change for the worst very soon. Imagine running a company and the power goes out, 0 productivity but same labour cost. These are the real issues facing EU countries right now and Australia is walking straight into the same.

[Bushmiller]

haveabeer mentioned in post #1026 that Liddell would be shutting down in April. It appears that the date is 28 April. This article tries to explain some of what has been happening:

‘It can’t be left to the market’: the closure of the Liddell power station and the uncertainty of the future (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/it-can-t-be-left-to-the-market-the-closure-of-the-liddell-power-station-and-the-uncertainty-of-the-future/ar-AA19WsoY?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=7347d9631ff74a3e8504344698100447&ei=38)

A few comments would be that Liddell is indeed at the end of it's life. In fact I was there for about 18 months around 1985 and it might have been argued that the end was nigh even back then. It is remarkable that it has lasted even this long.

For some time only three of the four units have been operating. The fourth unit was probably a spare parts store. Of the three remaining units all have been de-rated from their nominal 500MW capacity down to 320MW and in practice rarely supply much more than 300MW. Consequently the effective loss to the national grid when Liddell shuts its doors is about that 900MW mark: Not good, but not quite as bad as the 2000MW of the halcyon years.

The main problem now is that the strategies AGL were putting forward to pick up the slack and pacify opposition appear to have hit the first two or three hurdles. Some have been chopped completely, others have not really progressed and are truthfully a long way off. The other aspect to which we have to be wary is when the figures are trotted out. For example, there was talk of a 500MW battery ( this is one of the projects that has not progressed) as if that would replace a 500MW coal fired unit. Assuming that the battery is rated for one hour, which is not an unreasonable assumption based on what is typically available, replacement of the fossil fired unit, and fossil is so appropriate in this instance, would require 24 batteries of 500MW!

I read on to the concerns of the local communities as eventually power stations and coal mines begin to be phased out in the Hunter region. The COO, who hails from Dusseldorf, said that their were thousands of templates for absorbing the change. Hmm...Maybe, but I wasn't completely reassured by this statement when he continued by saying that Australia was not an island. I think he has a different Atlas to me.

I know that communities do adjust when industry is removed, but to suggest that it is easy, that there are many opportunities and that it is not without pain is a lie. It is always galling in the extreme when a person who is probably well placed in the community as far as finances go glibly implies that everything will be OK. Rubbish. There will be a mile of hurt. The time to prepare is right now.

Communities adjust, because they are forced to adjust.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

Déjà vu, California, all over again.

Shall we consider one scenario:

AGL closes Liddel on schedule; the Greenies applaud, all that nasty coal fire pollution removed from the atmosphere, and 900 MW electricity removed from the supply chain.

But, as Paul says, little effective planning has occured to replace that 900MW. Peak hour wholesale electricity prices will soar due to "market forces". Electricity demand in the short to medium term is notoriously inelastic - people do not switch off the lights when prices rise.

And AGL will be ready to supply a reduced amount of electricity from their other plants at substantially higher prices. It is all due to "market forces". AGL would not manipulate the market.

Surely AGL would not be that cynical?

Surely I am not being cynical?

Surely, our politicians could not be that stupid?

[Bushmiller]

I have repeatedly, and somewhat boringly, trotted out the mantra that there is no power source today that does not have at least one fundamental flaw or in some instances several fundamental flaws. I think nuclear may fall into this second category.

This is a little demolition job on the nuclear option:

Disarming the persistent myths of a glowing nuclear renaissance (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/disarming-the-persistent-myths-of-a-glowing-nuclear-renaissance/ar-AA19Yv4M?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=2110488f62744b69b6f46df31c71e4cf&ei=17)

One of the flaws in any proposal, electrical or otherwise, is assuming that everything will go just fine. This is often far from the truth as this castigation implies.

Regards
Paul

[TermiMonster]

I have repeatedly, and somewhat boringly, trotted out the mantra that there is no power source today that does not have at least one fundamental flaw or in some instances several fundamental flaws. I think nuclear may fall into this second category.

This is a little demolition job on the nuclear option:

Disarming the persistent myths of a glowing nuclear renaissance (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/disarming-the-persistent-myths-of-a-glowing-nuclear-renaissance/ar-AA19Yv4M?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=2110488f62744b69b6f46df31c71e4cf&ei=17)

One of the flaws in any proposal, electrical or otherwise, is assuming that everything will go just fine. This is often far from the truth as this castigation implies.

Regards
Paul

All true, as long as you can outsource all manufacturing to some 'friendly' nation.

[doug3030]

I think nuclear may fall into this second category.

Looks pretty simple in this Navy training image. What could possibly go wrong? :rolleyes:

525185

[Bushmiller]

All true, as long as you can outsource all manufacturing to some 'friendly' nation.

Hi TM

I'm not quite sure that I get the drift of your comment and whether you are for or against the nukes. Perhaps you could clarify.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

Looks pretty simple in this Navy training image. What could possibly go wrong? :rolleyes:

525185

Doug

I like the sentiment.

One of the issues that occurs to me regarding nuke subs is that their strength is to remain beneath the ocean for extended periods of time, up to a year if I have understood the promotional blurb correctly. I wonder what effect this has on the crew being stuck in a tin box under the sea for such a period of time. Do they finally surface undamaged as well-balanced citizens?

However, your cartoon is very pertinent as where a conventional power station might have a safety system in place to minimise the chances of an accident, the nukes will have three systems: Firstly, this comes at a very heavy cost and secondly, it does not always work. Chernobyl (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster), Fukushima (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_nuclear_disaster) and Three Mile Island (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Mile_Island_accident) are three highly publicised events that demonstrate the consequences of a failure.

[doug3030]

One of the issues that occurs to me regarding nuke subs is that their strength is to remain beneath the ocean for extended periods of time, up to a year if I have understood the promotional blurb correctly. I wonder what effect this has on the crew being stuck in a tin box under the sea for such a period of time. Do they finally surface undamaged as well-balanced citizens?

The limiting factor is the crew - more specifically their need to eat and their mental resilience.

And who exactly said that submariners were "well-balanced citizens? in the first place? :no:

(Before anyone gets too critical of that comment, I have spent a little time on submarineswhile in the Army, not a qualified submariner but my skills in other fields were needed once or twice)

[woodPixel]

525192

Nuclear fuel pellets - Science Photo Library (https://www.sciencephoto.com/media/342537/view)


Nuclear fuel pellets. Gloved hands holding life- sized models of nuclear fuel pellets with their injection rod. Each pellet can produce the same amount of energy as 3 tons of coal. The pellets are designed for use in fast breeder nuclear reactors. These use fuel containing fissile uranium and plutonium, surrounded by a core of non-fissile uranium-238. During the reaction, neutrons are formed that collide with the U-238 to form fissile plutonium-239. The reaction generates more plutonium than it consumes


This gloved hand holds life-sized models of nuclear fuel pellets with their injection rod. Each pellet can produce the same energy as 3 tons of coal, so this handful equals ~60 tons of coal or ~28,000 m³ of gas or ~34,000 liters of oil

We need mega-projects for solar, battery, CAES and phase out coal. There is no future in it.

edit - I wanted to add this to the reading pile. Getting a nuker up and running is no trivial task. This one just commissioned took 18 YEARS: 14 years late, Finland?s new reactor, Olkiluoto 3, starts generating power - Global Construction Review (https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/14-years-late-finlands-new-reactor-olkiluoto-3-starts-generating-power/)

In contrast, this project can literally start generating next Tuesday if they get the damned agreement done: Mike Cannon-Brookes Archives - RenewEconomy (https://reneweconomy.com.au/category/people/mike-cannon-brookes/)

[yvan]

Graeme

I think the percentage relates to the individual state generation...

Agreed Paul, but these percentages still show how far individual states have already moved toward meeting their own energy demand with renewables.

Cheers
Yvan

[GraemeCook]

... However, your cartoon is very pertinent as where a conventional power station might have a safety system in place to minimise the chances of an accident, the nukes will have three systems: ...

There are also major safety issues with military nuclear submarines: how do you defend yourself against one?

Let us consider a very unlikely scenario. A hostile nuclear sub surfaces off Pinchgut Island in Sydney Harbour and uses its torpedoes to leisurely take out most of the Australian Navy, all neatly lined up a Garden Island and, for good measure, a cruise ship at Circular Quay. Simultaneously its deck guns and rockets are firing at selected targets around the city. Sitting ducks.

Coincidentally, a squadron of fully armed RAAF F35 Lightnings are flying overhead. Do they attack the sub?

Is it a good idea to blow the bejesus out of a nuclear reactor in the middle of a city of 5 million souls? How far upwind does a nuclear ship have to be before you can neutrallise it?

[doug3030]

Let us consider a very unlikely scenario. A hostile nuclear sub surfaces off Pinchgut Island in Sydney Harbour and uses its torpedoes to leisurely take out most of the Australian Navy, all neatly lined up a Garden Island and, for good measure, a cruise ship at Circular Quay. Simultaneously its deck guns and rockets are firing at selected targets around the city. Sitting ducks.

That is indeed a very unlikely scanario, as you pointed out. There are many ways for a nuclear submarine to attempt the mission you described without either surfacing or coming into Australian Waters. That might be a good plot for a movie.

[Bushmiller]

Hmmm... The sub thing is a little bit off topic, but let's run with it for a brief moment, despite the fact it is starting to be reminiscent of a Geoffrey Robertson hypothetical. Graeme's point, I think, is similar to the dilemma of whether to shoot a man in front of you who has just removed the pin from a hand grenade. Is it going to end well for you? The blast from a nuclear explosion has three rings of devastation. The first is where everything is vapourised, moving away from the blast centre the second ring sees everything annihilated and the last is where the radiation effects total you about a week later!

However, a submarine is not a bomb as such, but exposure of the nuclear core would result in a meltdown and the extensive release of heat and of course the insidious subsequent radiation. A similar situation to the Chernobyl and Fukushima catastrophes, albeit on a slightly smaller scale, although admittedly without the immediate means of containing the contamination: Or would the ocean quench the heat emitted merely (sic) leaving a contaminated sea and beach for quite a long time?

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

Just by chance I heard a repeat of an ABC Radio National broadcast from Monday. Click on the link below and go to Rear Vision programme: The AUKUS subs and the nuclear waste we've never stored:

ABC Search (https://discover.abc.net.au/index.html#/?configure%5BgetRankingInfo%5D=true&configure%5BclickAnalytics%5D=true&configure%5BuserToken%5D=anonymous-d1d62875-1e2f-4f1b-92d9-eb04c9ec4f9c&configure%5BhitsPerPage%5D=10&query=rear%20vision&page=1)

Quite enlightening! Lots of information presented in a non-dramatic manner. I took a couple of aspects from the programe in particular. Firstly, the subs use high level enrichment fuel (weapons grade). power station enrichment of uranium is 4% to 7%: Weapons grade is greater than 97%. Secondly, no country in the world has yet stored high level nuclear waste long term successfully. Thirdly, (yea, I said a couple :rolleyes:) nobody wants a waste facility in the backyard in Oz so that means putting any such facility in remote regions and the indigenous population says "No!" It seems they are much aggrieved since the British attempted to blow them up at several locations including Maralinga. Fourthly, we have agreed to dispose of our own atomic waste (not much option I suspect). Fifthly, there are costs regarding regulation, safety and other aspects that are not included in the current cost blowout.

Regards
Paul

[havabeer69]

Déjà vu, California, all over again.

Shall we consider one scenario:

AGL closes Liddel on schedule; the Greenies applaud, all that nasty coal fire pollution removed from the atmosphere, and 900 MW electricity removed from the supply chain.

But, as Paul says, little effective planning has occured to replace that 900MW. Peak hour wholesale electricity prices will soar due to "market forces". Electricity demand in the short to medium term is notoriously inelastic - people do not switch off the lights when prices rise.

And AGL will be ready to supply a reduced amount of electricity from their other plants at substantially higher prices. It is all due to "market forces". AGL would not manipulate the market.

Surely AGL would not be that cynical?

Surely I am not being cynical?

Surely, our politicians could not be that stupid?

All the other generators are really hanging out for liddle's closure. I think there is going to be some dollars to be made

[FenceFurniture]

525192Are they the Subs from "Fantastic Voyage (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0060397/)"?

[FenceFurniture]

CATL unveils battery that may power electric airplanes and 1000km-range EVs - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2023-05-03/catl-announces-battery-to-make-electric-aviation-possible/102289310)

I particularly like:
"Battery design has been likened to a gold rush..."

[woodPixel]

CATL unveils battery that may power electric airplanes and 1000km-range EVs - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2023-05-03/catl-announces-battery-to-make-electric-aviation-possible/102289310)

I particularly like:
"Battery design has been likened to a gold rush..."

Just about to post this.

Invest in Lithium? :question::question:

[havabeer69]

the biggest sentance i took away from that article


Unfortunately, the company has not released many other details, including what this battery would cost, how many times it can be recharged, or how much power it can produce (how fast the stored energy can be used).

[FenceFurniture]

the biggest sentance i took away from that articleYeah. That's what you'd expect from someone who either is full of BS or has a game changing tech on their hands.

[FenceFurniture]

Something I did get from that article is that there may be room for a couple of different types of battery in a given vehicle. One that is quick to recharge, but low on other qualities, and another for long driving. Perhaps there's even room to remove one battery suite for short commutes and replace it for longer journeys. *At least until the "ultimate" battery is invented, which may be a little while yet.

Another thing that occurred to me wrt to small planes is that 3 : 1 ratio they were talking about for take off : cruising. Surely a ground based battery (of whatever type is appropriate) could be employed to fling the planes into the air in the same way Navy Jets are flung off Aircraft Carriers. (you know, big hook, rubber bands, and scooped take-off pads)

[Bushmiller]

Another thing that occurred to me wrt to small planes is that 3 : 1 ratio they were talking about for take off : cruising. Surely a ground based battery (of whatever type is appropriate) could be employed to fling the planes into the air in the same way Navy Jets are flung off Aircraft Carriers. (you know, big hook, rubber bands, and scooped take-off pads)

FF

Might well be possible, but I am not sure how the average passenger would cope. My impression is that most people go into freak out mode with a spot of turbulence. Imagine how they woul go being propelled into the air instead of eased.

:)

Regards
Paul

On the subject of development, have a look at this:

Gmail (https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&ik=d528912b14&attid=0.1&permmsgid=msg-f:1764587936148940962&th=187d1360f518e8a2&view=att&disp=safe)

Looks pretty flashy, but it is light on detail again where it counts as opposed to glossy blurb. What does it cost? Doesn't look remotely cheap with solar tracking, high wind safety detection and fold away sophistication. It doesn't explain how it provides power on cloudy days and at night.

[FenceFurniture]

Might well be possible, but I am not sure how the average passenger would cope. My impression is that most people go into freak out mode with a spot of turbulence. Imagine how they woul go being propelled into the air instead of eased.Well it doesn't have to be flung with the urgency of a fighter jet off a carrier – that WOULD be a bit much! :D

[Mr Brush]

You just reminded me of a flight I took from Melbourne-Sydney many years ago during (one of) the pilot's strikes. Probably Ansett. The government of the day were using RAAF planes to fill the gap, but also some chartered planes and crews from a US airline (South West?).

I swear the US pilot must have flown from carriers before going into commercial aviation. He stood on the brakes while winding the engines right up, then off the brakes to send us rocketing down the runway - prompting some slightly alarmed faces amongst the generally conservative local flying clientele. The landing gear came up almost as soon as the wheels were off the ground, and then he cranked it into the steepest climb out I've ever experienced. Sitting back in the seat like an astronaut, I wasn't sure whether we were going to Sydney or the moon.....:oo:

Some months later I found myself in an office elevator somewhere in the CBD with the head of the pilots union (in uniform) who had stirred up the strike - I recognised him from TV - who by then was out of a job along with a large number of other pilots (that the airlines wanted to downsize anyway). I couldn't resist saying "That went well, didn't it?" as he got out of the elevator :D

[GraemeCook]

... Another thing that occurred to me wrt to small planes is that 3 : 1 ratio they were talking about for take off : cruising. ...

There is some very informed information about this on the Airbus website.
https://www.airbus.com/en/innovation/zero-emission-journey/hybrid-and-electric-flight

Ther time line, simplified, is basically:

In 2010, tiny single seater electric with two ducted fan motors on the rear fusilage. It looks like a mini Lear jet.
Then they converted it to a two seater. It had a top speed of 150 knots and a range of 100 miles at 100 knots.
Then they took out most of the batteries and put a conventional moter powering a battery charger in the fusilage. This extended the range to 1,000 miles. Apparently 1 kg aviation fuel holds the same energy as 15-20 kgs Li-Ion batteries.
Plane would take off almost silently on batteries, then they would start the IC motor, less than half the size needed for take off. They only needed 20 minutes of battery power for take off and landing (in case they had to do a go around).
Planes are very inefficient taxiing on the ground, so they added an electric motor to the front wheel. This may make it to full size airbusses.
Then, in conjunction with Rolls Royce, they replaced one motor on a BAE146 (like Ansett used to use) with an electric motor. It flew successfully.
Then, in conjunction with Rolls Royce, they did a feasibility study to convert an Airbus 380, the real big one, to fully electric power. They concluded there was a very limitted maket for A380's with only a 1,000 km range.
Airbus is now on a watching brief pending the next generation of batteries. Weight is still the big issue.

[woodPixel]

Well it doesn't have to be flung with the urgency of a fighter jet off a carrier – that WOULD be a bit much! :D

I dont know, I'd pay a bit more for such an extra :)

I've certainly had my fair share of spooky landings. One flight into Melbourne during a typhoon had the plane "landing" 45 deg to the runway :) It was pretty spectacular. Much to everyones enjoyment the pilot did describe the up-coming fun :)

FF, I also had the same thoughts as you about 3:1 take offs. Considering they are talking about commercial planes, its seems to me they could use a regular engine for takeoff only, or use a booster battery pack that jettisons.


I saw a thing where they do this "kind" of thing in Rwanda, the batteries plug in in sockets - its really amazing:

Drones Have Transformed Blood Delivery in Rwanda | WIRED (https://www.wired.com/story/drones-have-transformed-blood-delivery-in-rwanda/)


https://youtu.be/jEbRVNxL44c

[FenceFurniture]

I saw a thing where they do this "kind" of thing in Rwanda, the batteries plug in in sockets - its really amazing:

Drones Have Transformed Blood Delivery in Rwanda | WIRED (https://www.wired.com/story/drones-have-transformed-blood-delivery-in-rwanda/)Fascinating! I doubt you'd sign up for 1-100kph in 0.3 seconds though. The PHEV Ferrari Supercar does it in 2.5 seconds, and that'd be scary enough.

[Mr Brush]

We had an extended power cut yesterday well into the evening due to high winds dropping trees onto powerlines. First time I've had the opportunity to try the V2L feature of my Atto 3 EV - plug the supplied lead into the car charging port, run extension lead into house, voila. It can supply up to 2kW @240V, so enough to run TV, a few lamps, fridge, etc. Made me wish I had a way to isolate house supply from the mains to simplify cabling. With a fully charged 60kWh battery in the car, we could easily go a week without mains power.

You can see how close we are to V2G; using the car battery for permanent home storage battery.

[FenceFurniture]

You can see how close we are to V2G; using the car battery for permanent home storage battery.Yair, you'd be a mug to buy a Tesla house battery, or any other kind of house battery.

[Mr Brush]

Apparently people are already ratting the battery packs out of written off EVs (of all brands) to use as very high capacity house batteries. BYD state that the lithium iron phosphate battery (LiFePO 4 battery) in Atto 3 is designed to be shoehorned into an enclosure for use as a house battery when it has reached end of life for the car (maybe degraded to 80% of original capacity - but that's still 50kWh for home use vs the 14kWh of Tesla wall battery). Trouble is the BYD Blade battery is expected to last for over 1 million km in the car, so I may not be around to see that !! Also, at the current (sic) rate of battery chemistry development, it's pretty safe to say that any existing technology will be obsolete in a few years anyway.

[FenceFurniture]

Best get driving then.

[FenceFurniture]

Ok, so I have a question about batteries:
A Tesla Powerwall 2 is $14,000 installed, and they are 13.5kWh or 13,500Wh, so about 1$ per Wh.
Mr B's Atto 3 has a 60kWh battery and the whole bloody car only costs $48,000+ (and the + doesn't affect the battery size).
Let's say it costs $20,000 to replace the battery in the car. That's about 33c per Wh to purchase a battery that goes into a difficult shape of a vehicle, not a nice neat rectangular box.

W.T.F?

[Chris Parks]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJJexnop6Xw&ab_channel=MCElectrical

[FenceFurniture]

That's useful Chris. Do I want to give China my money or Elon Musk? That's actually a tough choice. :~

However, it doesn't address 33c/Wh vs $1/Wh. He talks about "if you have enough money you can have 57.9kWh of BYD batteries" but Mr B already has that...AND he can drive them around. :D

[Mr Brush]

Good video - I learned a bit. As the man said, Tesla just stuck car battery technology in a box on the side of your house. There was always a question mark over the fact that the payback period was about the same as the warranty, which didn't inspire confidence. The BYD LFP battery was one of the main reasons I chose Atto 3 car; it's cheaper, safer, and far more forgiving of charging routine (quite happy being charged to 100%, and almost completely discharged, without any damage - not the case for Tesla). Significantly, Tesla are already using BYD LFP batteries in some of their models. This just illustrates the rate of change in battery technologies; I think BYD are going to release the first car with sodium ion battery shortly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgVOcOYWNgg

Sad fact is, no matter how fast I drive, I'm sure there will be better batteries available within 2-3 years before I rack up 1 million km......lol. Higher capacity, faster charging rates, lower cost. It's a moveable feast. :D I also think V2G will be a reality in 2-3 years (already exists in the UK), which will REALLY shake up the electricity market. Give me 10kW of solar on the roof plus a 70-80kWh battery in my EV, also connected to the house, and they can stick their grid (and "supply charges") where the sun don't shine.

[doug3030]

Give me 10kW of solar on the roof plus a 70-80kWh battery in my EV, also connected to the house, and they can stick their grid (and "supply charges") where the sun don't shine.

Nice pun - I hope it was intentional. :2tsup: :D

[FenceFurniture]

they can stick their grid (and "supply charges") where the sun don't shine.Err, wouldn't that be completely counter-productive? :D



I also think V2G will be a reality in 2-3 years (already exists in the UK), If that means Vehicle to Garage, like V2H (Vehicle to Home) then that's supposed to be happening here this year, with a bunch of models being released. O'course, it may be delayed...

[Mr Brush]

Let's say it costs $20,000 to replace the battery in the car. That's about 33c per Wh to purchase a battery that goes into a difficult shape of a vehicle, not a nice neat rectangular box.

W.T.F?

It's worse than that - I'm told the cost to replace the 60kWh LFP Blade battery in BYD is ~$15000. Which makes Tesla Powerwall look even more of a rip off. Anyone who installs a Tesla Powerwall now is basically buying a much earlier battery technology, which is already out of date, for an exhorbitant price. But....clearly some people don't mind paying through the nose to get a pretty shiny box with a TESLA logo on it :rolleyes:

[Mr Brush]

I remember the first time I saw a Tesla car at a show many years ago, and asked the obvious question..."Ummmm, why can't I use the car battery to power my house?"

Don't worry, we'll get there. This is bigger than Elon.......

[Mr Brush]

Err, wouldn't that be completely counter-productive? :D


If that means Vehicle to Garage, like V2H (Vehicle to Home) then that's supposed to be happening here this year, with a bunch of models being released. O'course, it may be delayed...

V2G = vehicle to grid, one step further. All the big juicy car batteries form part of a local micro grid for power storage, shared amongst several homes. I can imagine the power utilities fighting this to the death.:oo:

[woodPixel]

I was extremely surprised by the price of the BYD ATTO 3.

Just looked it up. Not too bloody shabby at all.

I'm used to big horsepower guzeleine engines, but I've drive a mates Tesla and it was a rocket. 150kw isn't the same as a petrol, they seem to have a flat power curve.... its maximum power from the first rev. A 100M and 250M in / sec would be a far better indicator of "power". (e.g my ancient HSV has 300KW and 600NM of torque, but it cannot be compared)

EVs are the absolute future. V2G is the absolute future.

Im seriously envious of people being able to buy these things.

Quiet, fast, economical, sexy-looking and NO STINK.

I can rapidly see a day where my dinosaur will be taxed out of existence.

[Mr Brush]

There is a $3k rebate on EVs in NSW, which took the price of long range Atto 3 down to about $46000 on the road. I believe EV rebate is now $6k in Qld. Real world range is 350-400km per charge, and I charge exclusively from home solar (better to put the sun juice into the car for free motoring than back into the grid at the crappy feed in tariff we get now). People have recorded 0-100km/h times of around the low 7 seconds for Atto 3 in Sport mode; it does restrict power slightly off the line to prevent wheelspin from the huge instant torque, but once rolling the throttle response is excellent. More than enough performance for an old codger like me :D.

It was time to get rid of my 9 year old ICE car which had 150,000km on the clock, and I figured I would undoubtedly be driving an EV at some time in the next 5 years, so no point in getting another ICE vehicle. Might as well get in now and get used to the experience of living with an EV.

Side note:- I was surprised how hard it was to sell a MANUAL ICE car - the number of people who can drive stick has fallen off a cliff !!

[Mr Brush]

A mate of mine drives big V8s, and I took him for a drive in Atto 3 when I first got it. He insisted on popping the hood to take a look; the expression on his face was priceless. "But......there's nothing in there, nothing to tinker with !"

[havabeer69]

Something I did get from that article is that there may be room for a couple of different types of battery in a given vehicle. One that is quick to recharge, but low on other qualities, and another for long driving. Perhaps there's even room to remove one battery suite for short commutes and replace it for longer journeys. *At least until the "ultimate" battery is invented, which may be a little while yet.

Another thing that occurred to me wrt to small planes is that 3 : 1 ratio they were talking about for take off : cruising. Surely a ground based battery (of whatever type is appropriate) could be employed to fling the planes into the air in the same way Navy Jets are flung off Aircraft Carriers. (you know, big hook, rubber bands, and scooped take-off pads)


wouldn't it be a TON easier to just have have an umbilical cable that is connected to the mains power which detaches from the plane just as the wheels leave the ground. then you just roll it back up and connect it to the next plane.

[FenceFurniture]

I'm used to big horsepower guzeleine enginesSell it while you can Ev sorry, EV. The bum is going to drop out the price REALLY soon.


and NO STINK.Clearly you haven't been a passenger with Mr B driving.... :D


I can rapidly see a day where my dinosaur will be taxed out of existence.Nah. They just won't be produced, and the market will dictate the price of petrol (astronomical within 5 years or so I reckon, due to declining demand)



It was time to get rid of my 9 year old ICE car which had 150,000km on the clock, and I figured I would undoubtedly be driving an EV at some time in the next 5 years, so no point in getting another ICE vehicle. Yes, good move. ANd while you may have missed benefits in upcoming rebates, you'll have gotten a better price for the ICE than you will any time from now on.

In my opinion we are right at the turning point/threshold. Anyone buying a new ICE vehicle now is crackers. I was just discussing this with my partner yesterday. She wants another car in about 1-2 years, which will clearly be an EV. I need a newer vehicle any old time but because I do such ridiculously low kms (1000-2500 per year) an ICE car that has been tragically devalued will suit me just fine for a few years. Running costs are not really an issue for me. I spend more on repairs for my 23 yo ute than I do on petrol!

[Bushmiller]

The ICE (internal combustion engine) has a few failings: How to get sufficient air into the motor is one, which is why supercharging and turbo charging have become popular in recent times, but the fundamental hiccup is the power delivery. The ICE has to build up engine revs and maximum power is not delivered until that happens. An electric motor has, for all practical purposes, almost instantaneous maximum power. This is why the EVs are so fast off the mark. Any drag racer will point out that it is more important to develop early speed than a high terminal velocity.

There are countless videos on You Tube of Teslas smashing muscle cars down the ¼mile strip. However, make that a ½mile strip and the result may be a little different. EVs have been upsetting the ICE for years. The Tesla is also helped by having all wheel drive.

Look up the White Zombie on You Tube for an EV doing the same demolition of muscle cars more than ten years ago. It was a street legal Datsun 120 converted to electric. He started with NiCad batteries and then went to Li when they became available.

Regards
Paul

[Mr Brush]

Roaring along in a muscle car, and getting passed by a silent Datsun 120Y, would be enough to make anyone turn to religion :D

[Mr Brush]

As soon as home storage technologies, vehicle to home, vehicle to micro grid, etc. really start to kick in (and we've barely started yet) the smaller number of people left dependent on grid power are each going to have to pay a bigger share of the costs to keep grid distribution networks running.

Our current house (rebuilt just 3 years ago after the bushfires) has all the energy efficiency features we could reasonably incorporate at the time - double-glazed throughout, very well insulated, passive solar design, solar system on roof (although I wish I'd gone for larger), heat pump hot water service, EV charger running off solar. However, even just this short period later, there are a few things I'd do differently if rebuilding now; MUCH more solar generation, induction rather than (bottled) gas cooktop (how quickly gas has gone out of fashion?), house wiring arranged to allow easy isolation from the grid to allow for V2H from EV to name but a few. The rate of change is accelerating very fast.

[woodPixel]

.... However, even just this short period later, there are a few things I'd do differently if rebuilding now; MUCH more solar generation, induction rather than (bottled) gas cooktop (how quickly gas has gone out of fashion?)..... The rate of change is accelerating very fast.

Induction is incredible.

I read a recent article on the BBC that all the top chefs have (essentially) switched to induction.

Solar, its modular! Whack more on! :)

On change, its occuring FAST now... REAL FAST.



He insisted on popping the hood to take a look; the expression on his face was priceless. "But......there's nothing in there, nothing to tinker with !"

oooooooo... I wouldnt be TOO sure of that!

I've been watching the scene for a few months and the Lightning-Rod crowd are getting sseerriioouuss power and acceleration upgrades out of their EVs after market.

I watched one dude who EV'd an old Beetle and its is so crazy powerful that he had to strengthen the motor housings directly to the transmission and put on a little set of wheelie-bars :) ITS SO COOL!!!

I think there will be a HUGE industry in converting cars to EV.

.... and if we want to see wild, this chap was busted for doing 100 kph on his scooter recently. If some rando can manage do it, every kid is doing it :) .... Canberra man who rode e-scooter at 100kph before trying to flee police sentenced to one month in jail - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-04/canberra-man-caught-speeding-on-e-scooter-jailed/102299854)

Watch the speed with which he pulls away from the cops. ZZIINNGG.....

[Bushmiller]

MUCH more solar generation, induction rather than (bottled) gas cooktop (how quickly gas has gone out of fashion?)

At the time we went for solar residential systems were pretty much limited to a 5KW inverter. Subsequently larger arrays were permissible. which allowed 5KW to be generated for longer periods and I am not sure of the restrictions today.

Funny you should mention the gas issue. We are in the process of bringing our "state of the art pre-war (2nd not 1st) kitchen" into the 21st century. As part of the reno we looked at stoves, and while we really like gas for cooking, it is of course a fossil fuel, so we have gone to induction and electricity. In time this will be provided by solar power. Maybe while we are still walking the earth. :shrug:.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

Induction is incredible. I read a recent article on the BBC that all the top chefs have (essentially) switched to induction.It's damn good alright. I only have a single portable hotplate that I bought to make sure I like it (and I do). This one always delivers full power (2000w) so when I turn it down to 200w it is only on 10% of the time. That's only "kinda" ok. I'm sure that is better controlled with the more expensive "proper" built in units.

However, there is one thing that you can't do with induction (or any other electric cooker), that you can only do with gas – hold the pan above the heat for flipping a stir-fry over and over, which I do ALL the time. A "flip-fry" is far more efficient than a stir-fry for moving the ingredients around. Firstly, with induction, the pan is no longer getting any heat, and secondly the hotplate starts beeping like the house is going to burn down...

[Mr Brush]

We have 3-phase power to the house, 6.6kW of panels on the roof connected to a 3-phase 5kW Fronius inverter. The system routinely kicks out 5kW on a clear sunny day. Output from the inverter is spread across 3 phases, so I needed 3 current sensors when I put in Zappi V2 EV charger. The Zappi needs to know TOTAL solar power being generated across all phases, then it only charges the car at that rate so nothing is drawn from the grid. If the sun goes behind a cloud the Zappi suspends charging automatically until there is enough excess solar to charge again.

No problem adding more panels to the roof, BUT you can't "upgrade" an inverter. That would mean throwing out/selling the existing one and buying a new one of larger capacity. So, if you want to expand solar you may as well add more panels and a new inverter as a separate system (e.g. on my workshop roof). I thought (in NSW) you could have at least 5kW solar per phase, but I'm not sure what the rules are now. I wish I had put on 11-12kW of panels feeding a 10kW 3-phase inverter.

We always thought "gas cooktop is best", so put that in when designing the kitchen. All this "gas bad, electricity good" Animal Farm (Orwell) stuff only happened in the last couple of years I think. I'd need to find an induction unit which would be a drop-in replaceemnt for the gas cooktop in a stone benchtop :(

[FenceFurniture]

All this "gas bad, electricity good" Animal Farm (Orwell) stuff only happened in the last couple of years I think. I'd need to find an induction unit which would be a drop-in replaceemnt for the gas cooktop in a stone benchtop :(For me it's not so much gas being a fossil fuel, because the amount consumed for a cooktop is tiny (also remembering net zero targets). It's having the connection fee of 70c per day, or the bottle storage and refill costs.

[Mr Brush]

Very true. For us, a 45kg cylinder lasts about 5 years (we had gas cooktop in the old house too). At one stage I was starting to think I had acquired a Magic Everlasting Gas Cylinder.

[doug3030]

A Tesla Powerwall 2 is $14,000 installed, and they are 13.5kWh or 13,500Wh, so about 1$ per Wh.

Mr B's Atto 3 has a 60kWh battery and the whole bloody car only costs $48,000+ (and the + doesn't affect the battery size).

Let's say it costs $20,000 to replace the battery in the car. That's about 33c per Wh to purchase a battery that goes into a difficult shape of a vehicle, not a nice neat rectangular box.


There is rarely a consistent correlation between the cost to produce an item or a service and the cost to the consumer of that item or service. The cost to the consumer is based on what people are prepared to pay. The key is to find a business where you have a low production cost for an item that people will pay a lot more for than the cost of production.

A good example of this is compare the cost of photocopying a document for 10 cents a page. The business scans your document to a digital file then prints out that file through an expensive printer onto sheets of paper which they provide, using lots of resources. Compare this to taking the same document and scanning it to a PDF for 40 cents a page. They still scan your document to a digital file, then save that file onto a USB stick which you provide. They charge you four times as much and use less resources and the only materials you get back, you paid for and supply as a separate transaction.

Why can they get away with this? Because people want PDF copies of documents so that they can email them so they are prepared to pay more for less service because it is convenient. Prices are not dependent on what the item costs to produce. It's all about how much people are prepared to pay for them.

[GraemeCook]

Ok, so I have a question about batteries:
A Tesla Powerwall 2 is $14,000 installed, and they are 13.5kWh or 13,500Wh ...

Elon's marketeers say the capacity is 13,500 Wh, but when you look at the warrantee his lawyers say that it is 13,100 Wh.

This is a first for me; I think I believe the lawyers.

Work out how much electricity you can realistically put into the battery over its expected lifespan, without rosy glasses, then divide that into the capital cost. Bloody expensive storage fee. Add the interest foregone, and it is much cheaper to buy from the grid!

[GraemeCook]

... I can rapidly see a day where my dinosaur will be taxed out of existence.

Interesting hypothesis, Evan. The governments now collectes a lot of tax on fuel, car import duty and rego, but only spend less than half of that on roads. With the pervasive ethos of not taxing green electric vehicles, this is going to put a big hole in their revenue.

Prepare for an inovative new tax!

[FenceFurniture]

Work out how much electricity you can realistically put into the battery over its expected lifespan, without rosy glasses, then divide that into the capital cost. Bloody expensive storage fee. Add the interest foregone, and it is much cheaper to buy from the grid!All the more reason not to buy a house battery now. In reality, it's never been a good idea because of the time to recover costs, but even as house batteries become more viable (price) using your car battery has to be the only way to go – why buy two batteries when you only need one, and that is many times bigger...and cheaper? In the not too distant future you won't have any choice but to buy an EV if you are looking for a brand new purchase. I can see house batteries coming to a grinding halt quicksmart, except for the people who don't drive.

[Bushmiller]

Not very much comes for nothing.

If we use the car battery to power our household, that power had to come from somewhere. That somewhere is either a sufficiently large solar array at your home or the grid ( could be any form of power for the moment although one day it could be 100% renewable.) If you use the car battery to power your home, you don't have that amount of consumed power to run your vehicle and you will have to recharge it somewhere. If your solar array is large enough, you may be able to achieve this, providing you did not have to leave for work (or pleasure) before the sun came up.

What is possible is, if and when peak and shoulder pricing comes into effect, whereby you can charge your batteries and/or car during low prices from the grid and use that stored energy at night when prices are high. We are already seeing this on the grid for the wholesale market and it is the complete opposite of the pricing regime, say, one year ago.

While an EV battery might well be a good back up for night time supply it seems to me that it too comes at a price.

No such thing as a free lunch.

Regards
Paul

[Mr Brush]

Even the smaller EV batteries are (relatively) huge capacity compared to Tesla Powerwall. Our house uses about 9kW/day (including heating hot water in heat pump system) - with very little inconvenience or hardship, I could easily get that down to 6-7kW total/day.

Assuming zero sun and no opportunity to recharge from solar, the 60kWh in the EV is still sufficient for several days' use without impacting too much on the range of the EV. During the recent floods and power cuts in NZ, several Atto 3 owners happily ran their whole house from their car battery for a whole week, and still had sufficient juice left in the car to drive it. These days 60kWh isn't that large for an EV, several already have 70-75kWh batteries. It's a completely different proposition to a Tesla Powerwall.

[FenceFurniture]

Paul, I think the general idea with car batteries powering homes is that the house might need (say) 5-8kWh overnight – mostly in the evening – and that is coming out of a battery with a capacity of (say) 60kWh, so it's only consuming 8-13% of the car charge.

The whole scenario will be different for every different consumer: how many days do you work from home (when you can charge your car during the day), how far is it too work, how much power do you consume in the evening, how big is your solar array, can you charge your car at work from green power, and no doubt a few other things thrown in there. Someone mentioned a moveable feast earlier. This has a long way to play out yet, but I do feel somewhat excited to be living through this transition.

In 20 years people will say "What was all the fuss about? The solution was easy." The solution is always easy in hindsight, but it has to be deduced and arrived at first, otherwise we'd have skipped the whole horse and cart thing, skipped ICE vehicles, skipped EVs, and we'd be transporting around in....well, what, exactly? :D

Who knows what is coming soon? With battery tech being a "gold rush" we may very easily find ourselves with batteries that have a module that is easy enough to pull out of the car and drop into the house to run it, while we toddle off to the shops for some Thursday night shopping, or go to work.

I betcha it ends up like battery tools – you have a whole bunch of tools, a smaller bunch of batteries, and just swap them around as needed. More or less :D

[Mr Brush]

Snap....lol

[FenceFurniture]

These days 60kWh isn't that large for an EV, several already have 70-75kWh batteries. It's a completely different proposition to a Tesla Powerwall.Yep, and what's the bet that the vehicle manufacturers start making the whole system modular? Bigger battery capacity for same size, "plug your car into your house, etc etc". It's a whole new marketing opportunity.

[Mr Brush]

When I look at the changes/improvements in battery technology over even the last 3-4 years, the rate of change and innovation is staggering. Sodium ion batteries just starting to appear, and a whole bunch of chemistries that we can barely imagine are already being trialled. Cheaper, higher capacity, smaller, lighter, faster charging, you name it.

In even another 2-3 years the large capacity EV battery market will be unrecognisable. In fact, I know that in probably 2 years the BYD Blade battery in my EV will be considered old tech. Large lumbering infrastructure like power grids, involving huge investments and long payback times, don't handle rapid technological change very well !

[FenceFurniture]

I can see hybrid batteries coming: one part that is super quick to charge, another that has range but slower to charge, and another that covers the other...whatever that is... :D

[woodPixel]

FF,I think you are right about the combo battery.

For the same reason we have several modes of power generation, there will be several modes of storage.

Its hardly a revelation that all tech has the "desirability triangle". As you say, some batteries charge fast, others hold a charge for a long time, others discharge fast.

One battery type might not come out king, but there might be a three-combo-battery installed that has one of each of the three desirable attributes.

...

I was thinking about people using their cars during power outages. One COULD use up 80% of the car battery, drive it to town... "fill er up" and toddle off home after doing the shopping.

Another idea is that there is a lot of talk here in Canberra of a Big Battery. Some monster thing.

It hardly takes a genius to see this rolled out in a network ... city, region, suburb, building. Each with their appropriate "size" installed. Hell, why wouldn't the power companies store these monsters in a few car parks in residential buildings to act as giant power-smoothing capacitors and peak-management solutions. I'm sure they are all over it.

[FenceFurniture]

I watched one dude who EV'd an old Beetle and its is so crazy powerful that he had to strengthen the motor housings directly to the transmission and put on a little set of wheelie-bars :) ITS SO COOL!!!

I think there will be a HUGE industry in converting cars to EV.I do think there will be some sort of industry with this, but I doubt it will be huge: people who just want a cheap car to run won't be even slightly interested in a fabulously expensive conversion of their little Corolla or Hyundai – they'll just get a proper EV, down the track when they become available on the second hand market. I suspect it will restricted to those who have some kind of "classic" car and who have the bucks to convert it just to keep the vehicle going. I'm not sure what the cost of conversion is, but it has to be around $25k or more (and $15k or more of that is just for battery).

[FenceFurniture]

One COULD use up 80% of the car battery, drive it to town... "fill er up" and toddle off home after doing the shopping.There's yet another marketing opportunity: "Spend $300 and get a free charge while you shop". The more you spend, the longer it takes to get the goodies in the trolley, the more the EV gets charged, and so it goes on.

[Chris Parks]

I was thinking about people using their cars during power outages. One COULD use up 80% of the car battery, drive it to town... "fill er up" and toddle off home after doing the shopping.

Or one could have charging available during work hours and plug the car in at home for overnight power supply. We will soon be in that exact position when Master P. becomes the BYD service manager and gets a drive car if we could be bothered but the limited feed from the car would not meet our needs in Winter.