Future of the Australian Electricity Market

[Bushmiller]

Hydrogen: A long way to go, but a start:

Green hydrogen Australia | null | Siemens Energy Global (siemens-energy.com) (https://www.siemens-energy.com/global/en/news/magazine/2022/green-hydrogen-australia.html#tblciGiDjV9jXDHqtURX9Ecc66_1R2Lylnp_GrZLnDBgcvoCGESC68FUo6qGO0O711K6DAQ)

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

careful what you wish for WP.

coal fired power stations take around a full day to ramp up to full output or ramp down to zero.
the grid frequency is principally maintained by what is known as spinning reserve -- historically spinning reserve would be around 25% of a station's nominated output.
In more more recent times the spinning reserve has been redefined to be around 10% of rated output.
However, recent breakdowns in the coal power stations have demonstrated the risk of reducing spinning reserve to such a low level.



Ian

The term "spinning reserve" had a more significant relevance in the days before the competitive market was developed around twenty five years ago. The "spinning reserve" was dictated by each individual state and I remember figures of 2000MW being bandied around. This would have been a state wide reserve and not necessarily based on an individual station output.

Today the availability of power is not dictated by AEMO, as the East Coast overall controller, but by price. Consequently any "spinning reserve", to quote that old terminology, is only there by default, because surplus power is dictated by price. This is why generators during that extreme wholesale price excursion a few weeks back could be ordered to generate. It was the default position should the price point become unrealistic. It is the fundamental failing of the competitive market. I should point out that collusion amongst generators is expressly forbidden with very high penalties applicable should there be any proven instances. When the competitive market was first established other markets were observed and the UK market in particular was watched as there had been some scurrilous activity there during their early days.

As price dictates almost everything it is the reason that fossil fired plants should not be made uneconomic before reliable renewables can reasonably take their place. Again it is why, to my mind, storage of electricity should be the primary mantra today.

Just as a ray of hope for retail electricity prices, they should stabilise a little through Spring and we are already seeing much lower wholesale figures. However, while this gives a window of opportunity through the next three months of milder weather, the price issue will return with a vengeance though Summer should the lessons have not been learnt and acted upon.

Regards
Paul

[Chris Parks]

An interesting read AEMO warns of power 'gaps' in Australia's biggest grid within three years as coal exodus gathers pace - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-31/power-supplies-in-australias-biggest-grid-to-run-short-by-2025/101389018)

[woodPixel]

This is on the ABC tonight.

Quite the saga.

Seems the banks won't touch it, so it doesn't bode well for other similar situations.

Vertical integration with overseas funding looks to be the only way coal plants have a future... Unless they become government owned?

WA'''s biggest private power station moves to take over loss-making, Indian-owned coal mine - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-31/power-plant-seeks-control-of-indian-owned-wa-coal-mine/101391152)

[ian]

Would an alternative be to revert to coal gas, rather than natural gas, Ian?
not really

From memory, coal gas was produced by heating coal to produce a mixture of hydrocarbon gases -- principally CH4 (methane) and C3H8 (ethylene), H2 and CO (carbon monoxide).
It was the CO that made coal gas the suicide method of choice.
I don't recall if coal gas is more or less calorificly efficient than methane -- aka natural gas.

Using fossil carbon -- in the coal -- to produce coal gas which in turn is used to produce electricity is not particularly efficient.
To say nothing about the greenhouse intensity of coal gas.


TL;DR
no

[ian]

The term "spinning reserve" had a more significant relevance in the days before the competitive market was developed around twenty five years ago. The "spinning reserve" was dictated by each individual state and I remember figures of 2000MW being bandied around. This would have been a state wide reserve and not necessarily based on an individual station output.

Today the availability of power is not dictated by AEMO, as the East Coast overall controller, but by price. Consequently any "spinning reserve", to quote that old terminology, is only there by default, because surplus power is dictated by price. This is why generators during that extreme wholesale price excursion a few weeks back could be ordered to generate. It was the default position should the price point become unrealistic. It is the fundamental failing of the competitive market.
so what you are really saying is that under the current pricing model the current coal fired stations expect to be paid to retain any spinning reserve.

This is not an unreasonable ask -- at least from the perspective of the coal station operator, who is burning coal (the primary variable input cost) to maintain boiler pressure so that the spinning reserve can kick-in if required. The system [of spinning] works across a state-owned electricity generation network, but mostly fails when individual stations have been sold to profit maximising market operators.

The "fix" might end up becoming payments to the privately owned coal dependent electricity generators that cover their variable cost above those required to keep the lights on at night (when solar output is zero) -- talk about money for nothing on sunny days or when the wind is blowing.


And the payments (for essentially nothing) will do just send AUS's CO2 emissions even higher

[GraemeCook]

so what you are really saying is that under the current pricing model the current coal fired stations expect to be paid to retain any spinning reserve. ...

I think you have both nailed it. But I would go further - the thermal power stations must be paid to maintain a specified spinning reserve. The alternative is to increase price volatility, possibly to a catastrophic level.

Classic economics: price is established by supply and demand. Increase demand and prices rise, decrease supply and prices rise, and vice versa. And with solar and wind power supply is determined by quite variable and uncontrollable natural forces. When it is sunny and/or windy we can expect high levels of electricity availability and on a still night only that which the thermal generators can supply. Ironically, causing high prices when demand is at its lowest! This is a recipe for increasing volatility.

Logically, the thermal producers should provide a minimal load to minimise this volatility. But it is not in their best interests to do so without compulsion. If they simply reduce supply of a product with notoriously inelastic demand then prices will rise substantially. And there are very few producers. A simple wink and a nod or two "To save all that terrible pollution - you close Plant X and we will close Plant Y". Now ramp up the publicity about how we are saving the planet; a few workers might suffer, but its the big picture."

It sounds dramatic, but it is exactly what happened in California 20 years ago.

[havabeer69]

its not quite "you must be paid for spinning reserve"

I'm pretty sure AEMO state "you have to have a system in place for frequency deviation control and response" (it's actually called FCAS and stations can opt in or out of this but there is a payment from AEMO that goes along with it for opting in) which leaves it up to the station on how they wish to handle it, most thermal stations will have a small back up of steam pressure they can use to quick generate some load, but it really does leave it up to the business to decide how it wants to do it, you could have a 40MW battery sitting out the back and use that as your response tool and not burn as much coal maintaining your spinning reserve. sometimes for testing and other things you have to call AEMO and tell them you're turning FCAS off as you need the steady load and don't want them driving you up or down in mega watts.

[woodPixel]

Here is another brilliant idea that gets us one step closer...

Out of thin air: new solar-powered invention creates hydrogen fuel from the atmosphere | Hydrogen power | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/07/out-of-thin-air-new-solar-powered-invention-creates-hydrogen-fuel-from-the-atmosphere)

[woodPixel]

Here is something to add to the thought-mix: California Avoids Blackouts, But Some Cities Didn’t Get the Message - BLOOMBERG (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-07/a-text-alert-may-have-saved-california-from-power-blackouts#xj4y7vzkg)


and here is something to turn thy pubes grey! Bloomberg - Energy Trading Stressed by Margin Calls of $1.5 Trillion (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-06/energy-trade-risks-collapsing-over-margin-calls-of-1-5-trillion)

[Optimark]

This is something which in some ways is now starting to happen in parts of remote Australia, but could happen in the near future more often.

A small village in Germany which is now off grid, powering their needs via a wind farm, which started very small, solar PV and bio-gas to provide heating for the village.

This German village managed to go off grid and become energy self-sufficient | DW News - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tE0-ki-CBfs)

Mick.

[Chris Parks]

I have posted similar thoughts earlier in this thread for isolated towns and communities, it eliminates a lot of marginal parts of the grid and should be cost effective and more reliable and I am confident this is what will happen.

[ian]

I have posted similar thoughts earlier in this thread for isolated towns and communities, it eliminates a lot of marginal parts of the grid and should be cost effective and more reliable and I am confident this is what will happen.
Hi Chris
You may wish to view the video again.

The village might be self sufficient energy wise, but the village itself is still very much connected to the grid.
The wind turbines produce many more (perhaps 5000) times the electricity the village consumes, exporting the excess energy generated to the German grid means that there is still a high capacity grid connection to the village.

What I took away was by allowing the village's residents to become "shareholders" in the wind farm, opposition to the turbines went away.

[Optimark]

Yes the Germans do things slightly differently to Australians, but this is to be expected as their villages are much closer together and their population density makes ours look sparse.

That village had their wind turbine system kick started by a couple (farmers) who paid for the first 4 turbines, then other villagers came on board and raised money to purchase another turbine. I believe it is somewhere around 50 wind turbines at the moment.

My brother in-law lives in a small village in Germany and they are doing a similar thing. We visited in 2013, we stayed with them for some time. I noted the proximity of a couple of wind turbines to the village and remarked that it wouldn't be possible to do this so close in Australia. His reply was along the lines of; "well once villagers started to own the turbines, noise issues and other issues went out the window."

At times we were walking to the local sports field, where above the changing rooms is a restaurant; delicious food. I noted that the local farmer had constructed a new shed on his land since our last visit and that it seemed that the roof design was made with solar panels being in the right direction and vertical alignment for their latitude. The answer was interesting. The locals after taking up ownership of a few wind turbines, turned to solar PV cells on rooftops. As the village is effectively a grouping of tightly squeezed in 100 to 180 year old houses, rooftop space is certainly PV cell unfriendly. The solution: approach the local farmer and offer to build a new shed with his money and their money. The collective will then furnish the rooftop with PV cells and everyone in the village should be able to benefit if they contribute.

This they did, the rooftop has slightly over 300, 200W solar panels on it's main roof, with another 180, 200W panels on the secondary roof. Let me tell you, that is a serious bit of generating power when the sun is shining. Almost non-existent power bills for many in the village. By the way, that shed is pretty massive, but I'm sure you've figured that out.

If you look at the rooftop behind the local mayor in the video, you will see the kind of solar PV cells and how they do it in Germany, no space and if there is so much as a square centimetre of space, it will be covered with a panel.

Mick.

[Chris Parks]

Ian, yes I noted it was still connected but I think that will go away in the future. The only reason the isolated towns are connect to the grid is because central generation was the only way practical way to supply power. Now with battery technology making local storage & generation possible there will be no reason to run kilometres of copper wire which in a lot of cases is unreliable and upkeep intensive. Local grids have been around for a while now though specifically for those reasons and there are a few in WA.

[havabeer69]

in isolated grids.... who pays for the upkeep of the equipment?

its also well and good for small reginal towns, but throw in a small city with a couple of small commercial and industrial estates and a hospital (one of those places that really shouldn't be with out electricity) and it starts to become a bit more complex.



This they did, the rooftop has slightly over 300, 200W solar panels on it's main roof, with another 180, 200W panels on the secondary roof. Let me tell you, that is a serious bit of generating power when the sun is shining. Almost non-existent power bills for many in the village. By the way, that shed is pretty massive, but I'm sure you've figured that out.Mick.

our local pub/hotel owner chucked a bunch of panels on a number of years ago, I actually got to talk to him one day and asked about them. He said his electricity bills where around $100k a year, but the amount of panels he could get on the roof could totally offset his usage, but it was a cost of $400,000. he said it was a no brainer because in 4 years time he would basically have a zero dollar electricity bill (price rises may have ruled that out now) so it was a great investment for him. can see how he shoe horned them on to take advantage of the north facing aspect.

516843


for those in NSW google sixmaps. its a government funded map that poops all over google maps for clarity case in point the same shot but with google

516844

radar view doesn't even show the panels yet street view does??

516845

[Chris Parks]

in isolated grids.... who pays for the upkeep of the equipment?

I have no idea but who pays for the mini grids already in operation in WA?

[Bushmiller]

The case for a large grid relies heavily on stability. A system with, say, fifty generators is less likely to suffer loss of power (but nowhere near impossible) than one with a small number of generators. In the case of a storm hitting the solar panels connected to a small grid you may be out of business very quickly: "One flash and you're ash!" to quote a hackneyed power station phrase.

There is an economy of scale supposedly. A stand alone solar system would be fine providing you have back up supplies in case of failure. All hospitals, for example, have a back up diesel generator as some of their equipment can't be allowed to fail.

Regards
Paul

[Chris Parks]

The case for a large grid relies heavily on stability. A system with, say, fifty generators is less likely to suffer loss of power (but nowhere near impossible) than one with a small number of generators. In the case of a storm hitting the solar panels connected to a small grid you may be out of business very quickly: "One flash and you're ash!" to quote a hackneyed power station phrase.

There is an economy of scale supposedly. A stand alone solar system would be fine providing you have back up supplies in case of failure. All hospitals, for example, have a back up diesel generator as some of their equipment can't be allowed to fail.

Regards
Paul

I can't see any future for a mini grid that relies on a single source of power generation and while it may be a monumental shift in technology and thinking I am sure it will happen. The giant solar field being proposed in the NT for energy export to Singapore must also be subject to damage caused by cyclones, lightening etc so they must have a risk strategy in place but of course the scale is far bigger.

[FenceFurniture]

All hospitals, for example, have a back up diesel generator as some of their equipment can't be allowed to fail.That's also a long standing practice for any company with an IT room, going back to the 1970s. I forget how frequently we used to run a drill – probably every 3 months. Presumably they make more use of a UPS these days, given the widespread use of "miniature" computers, but larger rooms would still need a generator.

[woodPixel]

Whew! What a ride!

Here is something to read for those interested in how batteries might work in The Real World...

Op-Ed: California'''s batteries kept lights on during heat wave - Los Angeles Times (https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2022-09-13/california-electric-grid-batteries-heat-wave-september-2022)


Additional tests lie ahead, for California and other states and nations. But after this round, California has a clear lesson for the world: Battery storage is a powerful tool for grids facing new strains from heat, cold, fire, flood or aging networks. And just as important, batteries are key to the zero-carbon future we need to avoid even greater stresses down the line.

There are plenty of clickable sub-links within that discusses subjects such as "dispatchable" capacity.


Every new large-scale solar project is now installed with batteries, making all new solar power “dispatchable,” (https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/lightsource-solar-bids-energy-storage-west-of-the-colorado) meaning the energy can be used when it’s needed most and not just when the sun is shining



Interesting reading!

[Bushmiller]

WP

That is interesting information on California. Really I would like and need to know more detail.

"From 5:45 to 8:45 p.m. on that Monday, when the threats of mandatory blackouts were at their greatest, the state’s batteries pumped 2,000 megawatts or more continuously into the grid — a full three hours of grid-saving power. Batteries provided about 4% of supply during the peak demand, which averted rolling blackouts."


The 4% aspect seems low. The 96% of power comes from where exactly?

Regards
Paul

[havabeer69]

another question that i heard on the radio about elect grids and elect cars:

our local council in trying to get classification on their responsibilties for future public charging stations for electric cars, especially with regards to things like "how do people who only have off street parking charge their cars"

[havabeer69]

another question that i heard on the radio about elect grids and elect cars:

our local council in trying to get classification on their responsibilties for future public charging stations for electric cars, especially with regards to things like "how do people who only have off street parking charge their cars"

I really wonder how the infrastructure is going to look trying to get a lot of older places and suburbs up to meet electric car targets

[Beardy]

another question that i heard on the radio about elect grids and elect cars:

our local council in trying to get classification on their responsibilties for future public charging stations for electric cars, especially with regards to things like "how do people who only have off street parking charge their cars"

I really wonder how the infrastructure is going to look trying to get a lot of older places and suburbs up to meet electric car targets

I think this will be the dealbreaker for EV’s in their current form and capacity. The logistics and practicalities is a massive hurdle to overcome

[GraemeCook]

I think this will be the dealbreaker for EV’s in their current form and capacity. The logistics and practicalities is a massive hurdle to overcome

Not sure that it is a deal breaker, but a lot of very creative solutions will be required.

I live in a heritage suburb where you cannot scratch your bum without asking Heritage and Planning permission. About half the houses do not have any off-street parking. Council, essentially, will not allow any changes to the front facade. For example, NBN "grey boxes" had to be on the sides of houses, not the fronts.

My place has a narrow lane that I park in; it is difficult to open the car doors so I park as close to the left wall as possible to allow the drivers door to open as wide as possible. I suppose I could put a charging station on that wall, but am not sure of the likely attitude of Council and the Heritage Commission. Probably swings on how big it is, how visibly intrusive it is. And the guy on the corner has a penchant for appealing everything!

For the 50% without any possibility of off-street parking, then they will have to rely on commercial charging stations, possibly co-located with carparks - eg take your car to work and leave it on the charger at the carpark.

Presume the Council will frown on extension leads across the footpath.

[woodPixel]

here is an article today discussing exactly this: The EV '''social equity''' dilemma that may put apartment residents off electric cars - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-27/ev-apartment-electric-car-barriers-costs-installation-tesla/101473158)

[Chris Parks]

This is where I think small rural communities are going but not necessarily modelled on Yackandandah

How Yackandandah reached 60 per cent clean energy use, and its plans to be totally renewable - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2022-09-27/yackandandah-totally-renewable-energy-electricity-solar-battery/101473306)

[GraemeCook]

here is an article today discussing exactly this: The EV '''social equity''' dilemma that may put apartment residents off electric cars - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-27/ev-apartment-electric-car-barriers-costs-installation-tesla/101473158)

This can be a surprisingly complex issue.

An acquaintance bought an apartment off the plans in the 1980's and specified and got a three car garage and 3 phase power - he got both - the real estate market was very slow at the time and the developer needed the sale. On settlement, he immediately installed cyclone mesh walls and a mesh roller door and used the space to restore veteran cars - non commercially. Half the residents loved watching the cars evolve - he is very accomplished - while the other half hated it happening in "their" parking area. Ten years ago, he got sick of apartment living and bought a house with a bigger garage.

Another friend bought an apartment in the block next door (same developer) and it has one powerpoint to each parking spot. Every time he used a vacuum cleaner on his car the circuit breaker tripped. Investigations revealed that developer had responded to the above situation by limiting the power supply in all basement carparks on all subsequent developments to 7 amp circuits. A trickle charger works, a Miele vacuum doesn't.

Latest development; a resident in the second apartment block has bought a Tesla. Now "Sam" could politely be described as an ill mannered yob and he has alienated many of the co-residents. He is also a very vocal proponent of a "no dogs" policy in a building where dogs are nominally banned but have been accepted in practice for at least 20 years. The body corporate rules ban dogs, but the body corporate routinely adjourns discussions on dog complaints indefinitely. "Sam" is not happy at charging his Tesla at 7 amps. Apparently, there is no cheap option available and it went to the last AGM of the body corporate. The vote was 80% against rewiring and installing a fast charge station. My friend says that the vote was about manners and dogs, and had nothing to do with EV charging. "I'd like a charging station but I would not vote for Sam!"

[Bushmiller]

Building regulations do change over time for various reasons: Some are justified and some are not.

As an example we lived in a small town in the Upper Hunter valley in 1980/81. The local council (Scone) had just put in a new town water system and it was forbidden to install a rainwater tank attached to your dwelling. They wanted to get their money back. Today the attitude would be very different where people are actively encouraged to put in water tanks. In fact, in Toowoomba, 80Km from where we now live, it is compulsory for new dwellings to have a rainwater tank. I am not sure about the requirements for our little town, which is under the so-called, but woefully mis-named, Toowoomba super shire. However, as we live in an older house and also have approximately 100,000L of rain water storage I don't think they will be complaining too much.

I can see a time when all new buildings require solar on the roof and EV charging outlets irrespective of whether they are stand alone houses or appartments. As that becomes the norm existing appartments will begin to make arrangements for charging facilities or else lose their tenants to places that do have these facilities. I am not suggesting this will be immediate, but it will start as a selling point and everybody else will be obliged to follow suit or lose out.

I agree with the earlier comments that there will be some heartache along the way. Some dwellings will certainly have difficulty with the practicalities involved, but those that make the effort will be rewarded.

Regards
Paul

[NeilS]

Any comments on the Qld pumped hydro plan?

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk announces $62b clean energy plan including '''world'''s largest pumped hydro energy storage''' - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-28/queensland-government-energy-pumped-hydro-scheme-jobs-palaszczuk/101481160)

[Chris Parks]

Any comments on the Qld pumped hydro plan?

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk announces $62b clean energy plan including '''world'''s largest pumped hydro energy storage''' - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-28/queensland-government-energy-pumped-hydro-scheme-jobs-palaszczuk/101481160)

Where are her safety glasses, it seems every time I see a polly with a safety vest then they have to have safety specs as well. A bad look for pollys Madam Premier.

[GraemeCook]

... A bad look for pollys Madam Premier. ...

Impossible!

But safety debate reminds me of another issue. Why do sky divers were safety helmets? If the parachute fails to open, how do they know that they will land on their head?

[havabeer69]

I can see a time when all new buildings require solar on the roof and EV charging outlets irrespective of whether they are stand alone houses or appartments.
Paul

that time is now for the solar panels, I'm pretty sure most new builds to meet basix requirements pretty much mandate solar panels, or most people go solar panels as its one of the most affordable solutions

[Beardy]

that time is now for the solar panels, I'm pretty sure most new builds to meet basix requirements pretty much mandate solar panels, or most people go solar panels as its one of the most affordable solutions

Unless the requirements have recently changed there is no such requirement.
Meeting Basix is about building energy efficient homes and using energy efficient products. Solar electric systems are about offsetting the cost of using those items. To my knowledge the only solar device that reduces your basix score is solar hot water systems which are heating water not producing electricity

[woodPixel]

Such an interesting discussion. Thought provoking on many levels.

Makes me wonder why, for new houses, there isn't a simple integrated one-step solution.

A combo solar-panel, battery, aircon system. All standardised.

The battery could sit anywhere in the circuit, even atop or below the compressor unit.

I know I've discussed it before, but it feels STRANGE that these systems are all so... separate. It strikes me as reasonable that they should all connect with a fat cable with a common end, that anyone can just buy and ... plug in.


Even devices like the fridge. Why does it not have a fat battery pack in the bottom, to charge during cheap electrical hours, to use during expensive ones. So interesting.

[GraemeCook]

... Even devices like the fridge. Why does it not have a fat battery pack in the bottom, to charge during cheap electrical hours, to use during expensive ones. So interesting.

Great point.

There are tens of thousands of fridges and freezers in boats, caravans and campervans that are connected to a battery. They use 240 volt when available, and the battery at other times. The batteries are almost always relatively cheap lead acid type - you do not need expensive Li-Ion batteries. Recharging may be from any combination of boat or vehicles engine, solar, wind or mains power.

It should be relatively easy to do something similar with a domestic fridge.

[Beardy]

Price is most likely the barrier. 230v appliances are much cheaper that 12v equivalents but I suppose that would change if they became more popular
If electricity prices continue to get out of hand all these alternatives will start to look more attractive

[Bushmiller]

Any comments on the Qld pumped hydro plan?

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk announces $62b clean energy plan including '''world'''s largest pumped hydro energy storage''' - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-28/queensland-government-energy-pumped-hydro-scheme-jobs-palaszczuk/101481160)

Neil

It would be good to see a little more detail on the two proposed locations and to hear the output in "MW" terms rather than numbers of households. It is good that a state government is finally recognising the need for storage, but what is going to be done in the meantime as they will not be operational until the 2030s: Actually, if it proceeds at the same pace as Snowy 2 it could be the 2040s!

I heard a term for the prospects of existing coal fired stations and it was reffered to as "economic viability." It is important that viability remains in place until renewables can reliably supplant them or life as we know it will take a dramatic turn for the worse. Note I am not advocating longer lives of the fossil fired stations, but more focus on finding the alternatives: Something that is talked about ad nauseum, but is a trifle short on realistic solution.

Regards
Paul

[Chris Parks]

Such an interesting discussion. Thought provoking on many levels.

Makes me wonder why, for new houses, there isn't a simple integrated one-step solution.

A combo solar-panel, battery, aircon system. All standardised.

The battery could sit anywhere in the circuit, even atop or below the compressor unit.

I know I've discussed it before, but it feels STRANGE that these systems are all so... separate. It strikes me as reasonable that they should all connect with a fat cable with a common end, that anyone can just buy and ... plug in.


Even devices like the fridge. Why does it not have a fat battery pack in the bottom, to charge during cheap electrical hours, to use during expensive ones. So interesting.

Evan, the significant problem with all in one systems as you suggest is that when a component failure happens then nothing works. I think this is one reason why central ducted AC systems are not as popular as they once were, the failure of any major component kills the whole system where if a room AC fails the others in the house still operate as normal. I have both and if I was building today I wouldn't have a central ducted system for a bet. The same goes for CANBUS auto house controls which are all the rage amongst the hipsters these days, the idea is great until there is a central control failure then nothing works and I speak with experience on this unfortunately.

[doug3030]

Even devices like the fridge. Why does it not have a fat battery pack in the bottom, to charge during cheap electrical hours, to use during expensive ones. So interesting.

Along similar lines, I have a 40 ltr Engel fridge in the back of the ute with a bank of AGM batteries and solar panels mounted on the roof racks.

The fridge is always on. The alternator charges the batteries and runs the fridge when driving and the two solar panels on the roof racks do the same when the sun is shining. When we go shopping we can put all the cold items straight into the fridge and we do not have to hurry home to unpack them from the car even on the hottest days. Sometimes we even leave it till the next day. When we buy items that are bought hot and consumed cold (mainly drinks), we cool them in the car fridge and put them into the house fridge when cold, saving a little bit of energy.

We go camping once or twice a year for about a week's duration. We add another larger solar panel into the array and can run the Engel as a freezer for the week just on the solar panels. Over the years I would estimate we have recovered the cost of the fridge, batteries, solar panels and battery management system just in the price difference between buying drinks for road trips from the supermarkets instead of road houses, not to mention the convenience of having what you want when you want it.

[woodPixel]

Here is a side effect not often considered....

Exclusive: Europe braces for mobile network blackouts | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/exclusive-europe-braces-mobile-network-blackouts-sources-2022-09-29/)

[woodPixel]

I'm not even LOOKING for articles any more... they are mainstream.

Here is a headline from today: Farmers are getting renewable Standalone Power Systems as Western Australia'''s regional power grid is dismantled - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-02/thousands-of-renewable-standalone-power-systems-to-be-rolled-out/101479136)


Seems this might be rolling out significantly faster than we suspect.

[woodPixel]

Form Energy Raises $450 Million In Latest Funding Round - CleanTechnica (https://cleantechnica.com/2022/10/06/form-energy-raises-450-million-in-latest-funding-round/)

[russ57]

The cynical part of me says big business gets involved when big profits are involved which (can) mean big rip-offs...

On a similar vein did anyone see the article on "super profits" from network distribution companies... Energy networks garnered $10bn in ‘supernormal’ profits from consumers in eastern Australia | Energy | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/05/energy-networks-garnered-10bn-in-supernormal-profits-from-consumers-in-eastern-australia)

[woodPixel]

This was discussed a bit a few pages back, but I thought people might be interested in the progress made.

New system retrofits diesel engines to run on 90% hydrogen (https://techxplore.com/news/2022-10-retrofits-diesel-hydrogen.html)

It doesn't solve, as some posters speculate, the Hydrogen storage + transport issue (I suppose it might be a thing, but I don't know much about it).

A decent read. Maybe an opportunity in the future to upgrade the multitude of diesel industrial motors to dual/alt fuels?....

[Optimark]

For some time I have wondered about Lithium supply and whether there would be enough for the seemingly never ending and upwards demand for lithium batteries which, as we know, power everything from hand held torches through to automobiles and running your house batteries charged from rooftop solar.

This I found to be quite interesting as it gives what seems to be a balanced viewpoint of things; dated April 12 this year.

How lithium mining is fueling the EV revolution | McKinsey (https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/metals-and-mining/our-insights/lithium-mining-how-new-production-technologies-could-fuel-the-global-ev-revolution)

Mick.

[Bushmiller]

This was discussed a bit a few pages back, but I thought people might be interested in the progress made.

New system retrofits diesel engines to run on 90% hydrogen (https://techxplore.com/news/2022-10-retrofits-diesel-hydrogen.html)

It doesn't solve, as some posters speculate, the Hydrogen storage + transport issue (I suppose it might be a thing, but I don't know much about it).

A decent read. Maybe an opportunity in the future to upgrade the multitude of diesel industrial motors to dual/alt fuels?....

WP

Looks interesting and I note that it is tolerant of low purity H2 so that would presumeably reduce cost. It could be a very worth while transition option providing it is economically viable.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

For some time I have wondered about Lithium supply and whether there would be enough for the seemingly never ending and upwards demand for lithium batteries which, as we know, power everything from hand held torches through to automobiles and running your house batteries charged from rooftop solar.

This I found to be quite interesting as it gives what seems to be a balanced viewpoint of things; dated April 12 this year.

How lithium mining is fueling the EV revolution | McKinsey (https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/metals-and-mining/our-insights/lithium-mining-how-new-production-technologies-could-fuel-the-global-ev-revolution)

Mick.

Mick

The sustainability of Lithium is an interesting question. My guess is that ultimately we will run out of supply and coupled to some limitations of Lithium batteries (heat tolerance for example) it too will be a transition material that will suit the planet's purpose for some time.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

These are a couple of documents that cam across my desk when I returned to work the other day.

Queensland SuperGrid Infrastructure Blueprint (epw.qld.gov.au) (https://www.epw.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0030/32988/queensland-supergrid-infrastructure-blueprint.pdf)

This one I found encouraging in that it is some sort of projected plan recognising action has to happen. It is quite lengthy but if you don't wish to view at length, I would draw your attention to page 4. (It isn't numbered for some reason, but does fall between pages 3 & 5, which are numbered :rolleyes: )


About the plan | Department of Energy and Public Works (epw.qld.gov.au) (https://www.epw.qld.gov.au/energyandjobsplan/about#:~:text=The%20Queensland%20Energy%20and%20Jobs%20Plan%20outlines%20how,and%20industries%20as%20a%20platform%20for%20accelerating%20growth)

I haven't read this one myself yet as we were too busy yesterday. Do let me know what it says as I am always sceptical about how defunct industries will see people re-trained in new disciplines (Holden/Ford shutdowns would be an example). However, I can be a litttle complacent as at this early stage of my working life I don't see it impacting me a lot. That in itself is, of course, a mantra I hear from older people: "It won't worry me." They apparently have no regard for the welfare of their children and grandchildren!

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

... The sustainability of Lithium is an interesting question. My guess is that ultimately we will run out of supply and ...

That is an engineer's answer, Paul, rather than that of an economist. I have had a similar debate over many years with respect to the oil supply. [Note; oil supply, not environmental issues] Let me explain.

Forty years ago there were various predictions that the world would run out of oil "in 20 years time". Demonstrably that has not happened, but the price has risen erratically. An economist would write a simple equation:


S ∝ P


Supply is a function of or is proportional to price. As the price of oil rose, previously uneconomic fields became viable and the recoverable supply rose. Also more exploration happened, and synthetic substitutes (eg ethanol) became commercially viable. All increased supply.

I strongly suspect that with lithium economic supply will follow prices. Or another type of battery will supplant Li-Ion.

Its not that long ago when Ni-Cad and NiMH were the bees knees.

[BobL]

This is interesting
Scientists have cost-effectively harvested lithium from seawater | Electrek (https://electrek.co/2021/06/04/scientists-have-cost-effectively-harvested-lithium-from-seawater/)

[woodPixel]

There is no shortage of Lithium. None.

There are three mines I've invested in now (somewhat indirectly as one cannot invest IN the mine!) but their ability to supply is just about endless1.

In the case of one, in the USA, it literally is distilled out of the hyper concentrated salt pulled from the ground. Its so EXCELLENT!

I suspect dead batteries will soon be fed back into the furnaces. Collection is pretty easy. But I was reading about batteries, and the amount of Lithium (as a carbonate) in each is rather insubstantial (0.3 gram x amp hour capacity). A few cents in each, that's it (~50 cents a gram, today)

Yesterday, I was reading up on Lithium and Rubidium (FAR more interesting) and the costs of Li are going berko, but its China paying silly prices due to systemic market collapses there. Ru is a VERY interesting metal.



1 Too late to invest now. China has attempted to corner the market since January and a hideous crash is sure to implode them. The same as what happened to Nickel. Kaboom!

[woodPixel]

This is interesting
Scientists have cost-effectively harvested lithium from seawater | Electrek (https://electrek.co/2021/06/04/scientists-have-cost-effectively-harvested-lithium-from-seawater/)

This is an ABSOLUTE GAME CHANGER if real.

Im going to read more on this.

My mind is boggled. Not only that - it changes EVERYTHING I can think of.

wow wow wow.

[Chris Parks]

This seems to be gaining some traction Grassroots plan to 'electrify' northern Wollongong suburb promoted as Australian-first - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-13/plan-to-electrify-illawarra-postcode-gains-momentum/101532016)

[NeilS]

Yes, I saw that interview with Dr Saul Griffith on the ABC 7:30 Report two nights ago.

My summary: He argues for the benefits and long term return from government support for household electrification (including cars) and he is not the least bit enthusiastic about a near term focus on hydrogen.

The interviewer didn't raise with him the potential benefits of hydrogen as a means of storage to support this increased use of green electricity, as has been discussed here.

[Chris Parks]

The change to sustainable energy has two main problems, cheap network recyclable batteries and solving all the problems surrounding Hydrogen which in the end is dependent on cheap batteries or so it would seem at this point in the changeover. The world we live in depends on electricity and that needs to be solved before we can move on. The way it is happening now is a dead end just like fossil fuels are.

[BobL]

I'm not a fan of Hydrogen either.
This article pretty sums up my thoughts on this topic
Hydrogen Hype in the Air - Clean Energy Group (https://www.cleanegroup.org/hydrogen-hype-in-the-air/)

Claims that Hydrogen is a Zero Emissions Fuel is basically BS because at a minimum it still produces large amounts of NOx.
Depending on how it's burned and what else is already in the air it also still produces large amounts of particulate matter.
NOx itself is also particulate matter and ozone precursor.

This is well know but usually ignored, just like diesel was pushed initially (especially in the EU) because it produced lower CO2, but it too makes more NOx and more particulates.

Most forms of combustive energy production will have these sorts of problems.

Simple answer is, where you can, "stop burning stuff"

[Bushmiller]

I'm not a fan of Hydrogen either.
This article pretty sums up my thoughts on this topic
Hydrogen Hype in the Air - Clean Energy Group (https://www.cleanegroup.org/hydrogen-hype-in-the-air/)

Claims that Hydrogen is a Zero Emissions Fuel is basically BS because at a minimum it still produces large amounts of NOx.
Depending on how it's burned and what else is already in the air it also still produces large amounts of particulate matter.
NOx itself is also particulate matter and ozone precursor.

This is well know but usually ignored, just like diesel was pushed initially (especially in the EU) because it produced lower CO2, but it too makes more NOx and more particulates.

Most forms of combustive energy production will have these sorts of problems.

Simple answer is, where you can, "stop burning stuff"

Thanks for that Bob

The problem is that there is no easy solution. The H2 issue has two directions and both only work, in varying degrees, provided they are produced using "green" energy. The fuel cell option seems the better of the two and may well be suitable for heavier vehicular transportation. The conversion of gas turbines to H2 as their fuel source, as you have pointed out, is not without issues and certainly does more than produce water.

Power stations produce particulate matter (flyash) but have baghouses to capture the majority of those emissions. That could be adapted to capture particulate matter from gas turbines where thay have an HRSG taked on the back to utilise waste heat. In the case of a straight through gas turbine the heat of the exhaust would be far too great and melt the baghouse in seconds! Modern thermal fired boilers have burners adapted to reduce Nox. In fact our boilers have "low Nox burners," so I imagine (but don't know) that development would mitigate that aspect for burning H2.

The burning (:rolleyes:) question becomes is the H2 overall better than the existing gases?

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

One problem with any process that produces some pollutants is scale.

If one process produces only 10% of the pollutants of another process - when 10x more of the second process is used/required we're back at square one.
That points to a fundamental problem "Too many bloody people" ?? :)

When Australia had about 5 million people, one family in 10 owned a vehicle, and the main electricity use was for lightning and the odd appliance, CO2 wasn't that big a deal. Now its about 5x more population, 2.5 vehicles per family and a similar amount of energy use daily to run a zillion home appliances and . . . . . . . .

[Chris Parks]

And the UK government have already started replacing natural gas with Hydrogen. I wonder if that idea will become the second diesel fiasco in a few years.

[woodPixel]

These two things on Wikipedia go some way to understanding the solutions:

NOx - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NOx#Regulation_and_emission_control_technologies)
Selective catalytic reduction - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selective_catalytic_reduction)

This one also points out pretty much the same methods:
Selective non-catalytic reduction - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selective_non-catalytic_reduction)

[woodPixel]

Fast-Charging EV Batteries With Nickel Foil - IEEE Spectrum (https://spectrum.ieee.org/ev-battery-fast-charging)


Fast-Charging EV Batteries With Nickel Foil

New tech enables standard EV batteries to charge to 70 percent capacity in 11 minutes

.....

For instance, a conventional long-range EV with a 120-kilowatt-hour pack that requires an hour to recharge could be replaced with an EV with a 60-kWh pack capable of 10-minute fast charging while preserving a very similar travel time during long-distance trips.


This makes for an interesting ponderance!

[havabeer69]

Fast-Charging EV Batteries With Nickel Foil - IEEE Spectrum (https://spectrum.ieee.org/ev-battery-fast-charging)



This makes for an interesting ponderance!

why do the always leave out the actual electrical specs required to do that level charging though? I mean do they need 6 or 60kw of power to do the 10 min charge? I think people are ok with elec vehicals now, whats going to hold them back is the infrastructure trying to get the power to them.

[woodPixel]

why do the always leave out the actual electrical specs required to do that level charging though? I mean do they need 6 or 60kw of power to do the 10 min charge? I think people are ok with elec vehicles now, whats going to hold them back is the infrastructure trying to get the power to them.

There is a sneaky link right at the bottom :)

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05281-0

and the full 16 page PDF.

If you have trouble with their paywalls etc, use "Bypass Paywalls Clean"


(Support: https://gitlab.com/magnolia1234/bypass-paywalls-firefox-clean
Chrome: https://gitlab.com/magnolia1234/bypass-paywalls-chrome-clean)

[Chris Parks]

An article on the hype surrounding Hydrogen in transport

What’s more efficient? Hydrogen or battery powered? (volkswagenag.com) (https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2019/08/hydrogen-or-battery--that-is-the-question.html#)

>With the hydrogen-powered electric car, the losses are significantly greater: 45 percent of the energy is already lost during the production of hydrogen through electrolysis. Of this remaining 55 percent of the original energy, another 55 percent is lost when hydrogen is converted into electricity in the vehicle. This means that the hydrogen-powered electric car only achieves an efficiency of between 25 to 35 percent, depending on the model. For the sake of completeness: when alternative fuels are burned, the efficiency is even worse: only 10 to 20 percent overall efficiency.<

[GraemeCook]

why do the always leave out the actual electrical specs required to do that level charging though? I mean do they need 6 or 60kw of power to do the 10 min charge? I think people are ok with elec vehicals now, whats going to hold them back is the infrastructure trying to get the power to them.

Does it matter? Or why are people obsessed with fast charging?

Most people will come home, plug their electrical vehicle in and will want it charged before they drive away the next morning, 10-12 hours later. When away from home, they may need a fast charge and then they will go to a commercial charger.

[Bushmiller]

Does it matter? Or why are people obsessed with fast charging?

Most people will come home, plug their electrical vehicle in and will want it charged before they drive away the next morning, 10-12 hours later. When away from home, they may need a fast charge and then they will go to a commercial charger.


Graeme

It is difficult to say exactly how charging patterns will pan out. It may be given that a large part of renewable power will be solar so that where possible motorists will try to take advantage of off-peak, which will now be through the middle of the day. If retired there will be no problem as you will plug in at a time to suit, but if at work (and not working from home), charging your vehicle at the best price and competing for a charging spot with all your work colleagues may be more problematic.

I expect it will get sorted.....eventually.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

Probably right, Paul.

But in the short to medium term, there will probably be "excess thermal power" continuing to be available in the midnight to 6.00 am slot. Those stations do not ramp up and ramp down as quickly as demand!

[FenceFurniture]

Does it matter? Or why are people obsessed with fast charging?

Most people will come home, plug their electrical vehicle in and will want it charged before they drive away the next morning, 10-12 hours later. When away from home, they may need a fast charge and then they will go to a commercial charger.It's not so much the fast charging, but the access to ANY power for many people, such as high-rise dwellers where there is no power available in the community garage (or there is no garage), or people who have to park on the street in the inner city (even here, as we do). People having to run stupidly long cables down the outside of buildings so they can charge their vehicles. Fast charge (at a servo or similar) for such people becomes paramount, but it will also wear out the battery faster - lithium batteries like slow charging mostly, but that may change I guess. I only use a USB-C charger on my phone if I need fast juice and don't have the time for a trickle.

Edited for clarity.

[GraemeCook]

... People having to run stupidly long cables down the outside of buildings so they can charge their vehicles. Fast charge for such people becomes paramount, ...

Sorry, but you have lost me FF.

Cannot see how you can connect a fast charger to a "stupidly long" extension lead - surely it is limited to 10 amps, perhaps 15 amps in some cases.

Appreciate that people without a car park with a powerpoint do have a problem; they will have to rely on commercial charging stations, like servos.

But would any rational person buy an electrical car if they did not have somewhere to park it? Trying to think of something clever to say about smart chargers and less smart owners!

[FenceFurniture]

Sorry, but you have lost me FF.

Cannot see how you can connect a fast charger to a "stupidly long" extension lead - surely it is limited to 10 amps, perhaps 15 amps in some cases.I'm not connecting them Graeme, I'm saying forget about fast charging, ANY charging is a problem for some people.
It's not so much the fast charging, but the access to ANY power for many people, and that therefore:
Fast charge for such people becomes paramount,in a fast charging station somewhere.


Original post slightly edited for clarity.

[woodPixel]

I think everyone is forgetting some really important aspects of how anything is implemented in life.

The infrastructure for anything new isn't available 100% as of Day One.

When cars were first created, one bought their fuel in tin cans that were opened with (what looked like) a can-punch. It was a big deal. There were no "service stations", nor anyone to change the oil.... it ALL had to be arranged. Fuel was order in. In a way it was cute, but terribly inconvenient.

Same with internet. Who here DIDN'T struggle with a 28.8k (or 14.4k) modem and cursed Telstra and their copper pair lines?

A town is created, it didn't just pop out of the earth like a game of Command+Conquer or SIM City.... it was dirt roads and dirt footpaths and no water (but your own tank) and a hole out the back for the Outhouse....

The same will go for this infrastructure.

Ive no doubt the network will be built at a speed that we will boggle at in 5 or 10 years time. We'll look back and see that all the "Yeah But..." arguments were just negative naysayers. Have a little vision!

If there is doubt, I look at China, which I sort of love (not the goddam CCP though). Over there the city electric infrastructure is positively space-aged compared to here. Electrification is EVERYTHING.... electric "city cars" sell like CRAZY... electric scooters are 100% of sales and they can't make them fast enough. If people need to go a long way, they catch a high-speed train that goes at 360km/h.

We are positively prehistoric with our namby-pamby rear-view politics. The last government has positively squandered the opportunity to be "the lucky country". So many HUGE opportunities lost.

People will work around all this arm-waving I'm reading here. Its not the end of the world. The early adopters will take the pain, as they always do, find wild solutions with improbable hacks, and in the end it all catches up for "The Ordinaries".

I suspect, however, that the rapid changes we are seeing in the environment are going to galvanise us as a species to change how we do EVERYTHING and the capitalists will either capitalise on it (or hide in a hole) or the government will simply do it and charge appropriately (as it bloody well should).


(edited slightly for clarity and spuling erras)

[BobL]

I think everyone is forgetting some really important aspects of how anything is implemented in life.

The infrastructure for anything new isn't available 100% as of Day One.

When cars were first created, one bought their fuel in tin cans that were opened with (what looked like) a can-punch. It was a big deal. There were no "service stations", nor anyone to change the oil.... it ALL had to be arranged. Fuel was order in. In a way it was cute, but terribly inconvenient.

There was even a time before cans when petrol was only available from pharmacist in 500mL glass bottles. Each pharmacist would only stock a few bottles so drivers would have to do a crawl around to all the pharmacies in a town to fill up

[havabeer69]

I think everyone is forgetting some really important aspects of how anything is implemented in life.

The infrastructure for anything new isn't available 100% as of Day One.

When cars were first created, one bought their fuel in tin cans that were opened with (what looked like) a can-punch. It was a big deal. There were no "service stations", nor anyone to change the oil.... it ALL had to be arranged. Fuel was order in. In a way it was cute, but terribly inconvenient.

Same with internet. Who here DIDN'T struggle with a 28.8k (or 14.4k) modem and cursed Telstra and their copper pair lines?

A town is created, it didn't just pop out of the earth like a game of Command+Conquer or SIM City.... it was dirt roads and dirt footpaths and no water (but your own tank) and a hole out the back for the Outhouse....

The same will go for this infrastructure.

Ive no doubt the network will be built at a speed that we will boggle at in 5 or 10 years time. We'll look back and see that all the "Yeah But..." arguments were just negative naysayers. Have a little vision!

If there is doubt, I look at China, which I sort of love (not the goddam CCP though). Over there the city electric infrastructure is positively space-aged compared to here. Electrification is EVERYTHING.... electric "city cars" sell like CRAZY... electric scooters are 100% of sales and they can't make them fast enough. If people need to go a long way, they catch a high-speed train that goes at 360km/h.

We are positively prehistoric with our namby-pamby rear-view politics. The last government has positively squandered the opportunity to be "the lucky country". So many HUGE opportunities lost.

People will work around all this arm-waving I'm reading here. Its not the end of the world. The early adopters will take the pain, as they always do, find wild solutions with improbable hacks, and in the end it all catches up for "The Ordinaries".

I suspect, however, that the rapid changes we are seeing in the environment are going to galvanise us as a species to change how we do EVERYTHING and the capitalists will either capitalise on it (or hide in a hole) or the government will simply do it and charge appropriately (as it bloody well should).


(edited slightly for clarity and spuling erras)

Thats fine until the government says that by 2032 no more combustion engines will be sold in the act, i hope in less then 10 years the state (sorry territory) has worked out all the kinks of owning elec vehicles to promote the start of 100% uptake

[FenceFurniture]

...by 2032 no more combustion engines will be sold in the ACT"Sold" as opposed to "be able to be registered" could be different. The devil is always in the detail.

[woodPixel]

We have the staggering capacity to build epic solutions, but sit on our hands.... happy to dig up rocks for yet another hole in the ground.

Meanwhile in China....

China to break its own record: World’s new largest wind farm could power 13 million homes (https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/china-worlds-largest-wind-farm)


This one is 43.3 GW (~13 million homes)

Jiuquan Wind Power already generates 20 GW.

Fujian Province is building one of 50 GW.


This is epic. Imagine what will happen to industry when this super-cheap power comes online.... it will absolutely explode. China is placing itself firmly as an absolute world leader in renewables. Yes, they have a horrible past and pollute like crazy - BUT that is OUR pollution exported to them by us outsourcing our production.

While we point the finger an accuse China of environmental heresies (which is complete hypocrisy) they are building project like this. Epic, giant, amazing, awesome projects.

Food for thought!

Imagine what we could do with 45GW of energy offshore of Sydney... or Melbourne.... or Brisbane..... or Perth....

Monster desal, monster inland freshwater projects, green mining, monster smelting operations, hydrogen up the wazooo.....

Such a vision.

[Beardy]

We have the staggering capacity to build epic solutions, but sit on our hands.... happy to dig up rocks for yet another hole in the ground.

Meanwhile in China....

China to break its own record: World’s new largest wind farm could power 13 million homes (https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/china-worlds-largest-wind-farm)


This one is 43.3 GW (~13 million homes)

Jiuquan Wind Power already generates 20 GW.

Fujian Province is building one of 50 GW.


This is epic. Imagine what will happen to industry when this super-cheap power comes online.... it will absolutely explode. China is placing itself firmly as an absolute world leader in renewables. Yes, they have a horrible past and pollute like crazy - BUT that is OUR pollution exported to them by us outsourcing our production.

While we point the finger an accuse China of environmental heresies (which is complete hypocrisy) they are building project like this. Epic, giant, amazing, awesome projects.

Food for thought!

Imagine what we could do with 45GW of energy offshore of Sydney... or Melbourne.... or Brisbane..... or Perth....

Monster desal, monster inland freshwater projects, green mining, monster smelting operations, hydrogen up the wazooo.....

Such a vision.

Sounds impressive but the key words that stood out to me

“And because of the region's distinctive topographical features and windy location, these turbines will be able to run between 43 percent to 49 percent of the time,”

Is this achieving any more than what our current solar systems are doing ? I would imagine that the cost per watt would be substantially more than what our solar does as well.
My overall general understanding ( and happy to stand corrected) is that we have basically already hit saturation levels with intermittent renewables and we are looking for a replacement base load solution to be able to move forward

[BobL]

Thats fine until the government says that by 2032 no more combustion engines will be sold in the act, i hope in less then 10 years the state (sorry territory) has worked out all the kinks of owning elec vehicles to promote the start of 100% uptake

Is that no more ICE cars period or no more NEW ICE cars?

[Bushmiller]

Sounds impressive but the key words that stood out to me

“And because of the region's distinctive topographical features and windy location, these turbines will be able to run between 43 percent to 49 percent of the time,”

Is this achieving any more than what our current solar systems are doing ? I would imagine that the cost per watt would be substantially more than what our solar does as well.
My overall general understanding ( and happy to stand corrected) is that we have basically already hit saturation levels with intermittent renewables and we are looking for a replacement base load solution to be able to move forward

Bob

Solar has two limitations in sunshine and night time (I suppose that is the same thing really) and it can never work, by itself, at night. Wind on the other hand can work at any time of the day or indeed at no time of the day: I know this all sounds obvious, but it has to be windy and the wind strength varies. That percentage is an average and consequently is an unreliable figure. You cannot rely on approximately half your capacity all of the time. You may have 100% when there is no market for power and conversely close to 0% when the market is desperate.

It is true to say that most forms of power have some restrictions: For example coal fired power plants, to achieve full load rely on drawing a certain amount of backpressure in the turbine, which is developed in the condenser. In hot conditions, when arguably demand is greatest, the backpressure will rise above optimum design and the only solution is to reduce load. It may mean that a thermal station is now operating at 90% of rated capacity.

You are correct regarding the renewable status. Storage is now the issue: Arguably bigger than the orginal shift towards renewables.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

We have spoken at length regarding the price structure of the wholesale electricity market, but it seems there was an aspect of which I was certainly unaware. It seems as well as contracts and the spot market there is another form of contract, which in the article below is referred to as hedging (I had thought that was effectively the nature of the contracts too), but it is negotiated by an intermediary. I have to say I am not quite clear as to exactly how this all evolves as the intermediary seems to have a degree of liability. If that is the case it is not as if the intermediary acts as a broker.

A key part of Australia's electricity market is in meltdown and it's bad news for your power bill (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/a-key-part-of-australia-s-electricity-market-is-in-meltdown-and-it-s-bad-news-for-your-power-bill/ar-AA13uzM6?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=0b79f7de562e4020bb24e3f309c990e7)

My previous understanding was that electricity retailers and large industrial consumers dealt directly with the trading arms of the power generators. This aspect in the article is new to me: I must get out more!

I did take this extract from the article and I believe it is why some retaillers, who did not have contracts and relied on spot prices have gone to the wall.

"If you don't hedge then you're exposed to the spot price, which can go from minus $1000 a megawatt hour to plus $15,000 a megawatt hour.
"And that can change every five minutes.
"So, some extreme ranges in pricing.

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

This news has some interesting factors.

Imagine a big tank of hydrogen, generated from renewables and stored for the down periods...

Could this be scaled into a mass household/suburb/town scale?

Very curious!

Volkswagen develops hydrogen car that can travel 2,000 kilometers on one tank - Ruetir (https://www.ruetir.com/2022/10/29/volkswagen-develops-hydrogen-car-that-can-travel-2000-kilometers-on-one-tank/)



I just learned that hydrogen is stored and transported as ammonia! How excellent!

[havabeer69]

Imagine a big tank of hydrogen, generated from renewables and stored for the down periods...


this is the hardest part I believe, is generating enough power to make bulk hydrogen as well as the large energy cost to make the ammonia.

better off just using the electricity from renewables in your house then trying to burn hydrogen

[GraemeCook]

... When cars were first created, one bought their fuel in tin cans that were opened with (what looked like) a can-punch.

I can remember buying VB like that, in the days before rip-top cans, and you needed a can opener to access your VB.


... If there is doubt, I look at China, which I sort of love (not the goddam CCP though). Over there the city electric infrastructure is positively space-aged compared to here. Electrification is EVERYTHING.... electric "city cars" sell like CRAZY... electric scooters are 100% of sales and they can't make them fast enough. ....

We were in China a little before they locked down, and I can confirm that WP is not exagerating. There are a lot of electric cars including Teslas and Chinese brands. The vast majority of motor scooters and motor bikes are electric, including Vespa, BMW and Harley-Davidson lookalikes. It is truly weird seeing a "Harley" that is silent! As everyone knows, Harley's are famous for converting petrol into noise without the side effect of horsepower, but not in China. The "Harleys" are truly silent and the logo on the fuel tank is in Chinese.
哈雷戴维森 = Hāléi Dàiwéisēn = Harley-Davidson

[Chris Parks]

For those who agree with Toyota & BMW concerning ICE motors fuelled by Hydrogen this is an interesting watch. I have seen a video showing electric vehicle only cities in China but the most interesting thing about China is the massive production effort they are putting in to monopolise the majority of the BEV market world wide.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJjKwSF9gT8&ab_channel=EngineeringExplained


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0P7fTPLSMeI&ab_channel=FullyChargedShow


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qO2d9FpBzDI&ab_channel=CNBC

[Bushmiller]

An interesting pilot development at Kogan Creek for hydrogen production:

Kogan renewable hydrogen project given the green light (https://csenergytomorrow.com.au/kogan-renewable-hydrogen-project/)

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

...by 2032 no more combustion engines will be sold in the ACT ...


"Sold" as opposed to "be able to be registered" could be different. The devil is always in the detail.


FF - You mean that people in Canberra will travel all the way to Queanbeyan to buy their cars?

[woodPixel]

FF - You mean that people in Canberra will travel all the way to Queanbeyan to buy their cars?

One will buy it online and it will DRIVE ITSELF to your home :)

[rwbuild]

This video opens up some very interesting facets to this whole topic of electrical generation/distribution and the consequence of EV vehicles and taxes which is something that I had not thought about
The reality of living with an EV that nobody talks about !! - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JJHr78Ksx0)

[FenceFurniture]

I only scanned through that vid (he takes 17 minutes to say what can be said in 2 or maybe less). One part that I saw was talking about a potential cost of 30 pounds to charge up (from absolutely dead flat). With petrol approaching 2 pounds a litre now, that makes a 65 litre tank about 120 pounds to fill, so about 4x the cost of a charge.
We were discussing that (charging difficulties) within this very thread (https://www.woodworkforums.com/f43/future-australian-electricity-market-240514#post2294626) a little over a week ago, and the conclusion is that the electrical infrastructure is a WIP, just as a petrol infrastructure was 100 years ago. Every new tech has to develop, but that doesn't mean there is a reason to not develop it.

[havabeer69]

It'll be interesting how the take the fuel excise tax and apply it to EV

can only assume it'll just be a big slug onto your rego.

[FenceFurniture]

It'll be interesting how the take the fuel excise tax and apply it to EV

can only assume it'll just be a big slug onto your rego.Don't know. Fuel Excise is a Fed tax, and Rego is State, so they may need some other way through. I suspect there will have to be a substantial rethink on some (or many) aspects of taxation.

[GraemeCook]

Don't know. Fuel Excise is a Fed tax, and Rego is State, so they may need some other way through. I suspect there will have to be a substantial rethink on some (or many) aspects of taxation.

So right. They will have to do a really big re-think.

If you add up the total taxes collected by both state and federal governments from cars - import duties, fuel tax and rego - you get a big number which is about twice what the governments collectively spend on road construction and maintenance. ie Cars are a significant part of geberal taxation.

And electric vehicles, at the moment, are about subsidies rather than taxation.

A real big think is needed, and must happen.

[rwbuild]

Whatever tax formula they come up with will have to take into account that there will still be a very large percentage of heavy vehicles using diesel, the EV cars/bikes/light trucks that charge off the existing grid, BUT how do you arrive at a formula for those who are NOT on the grid and have their own self sufficient system and charge their EV's off that.

[GraemeCook]

All good questions, Ray.

And I think that is critical - they are questions.

The element of general taxation on vehicles is so ubiquitous, I do not think they can do the taxing largely through electricity tariffs - a total re-think will be necessary.

[FenceFurniture]

There are State taxes in fuel as well.

[Beardy]

Ray I don’t think they will care if your EV is self sufficient. I think the government just wants general tax revenue and the way they went about it with ICE cars will need to change so they dont miss out when the trend changes
They will get us one way or another

[rwbuild]

I agree Beardy but tax's is the only real source of income any gov't has to pay for their lifestyle and what they dribble out to us, but my point is how do you develop a taxing formula that is at face value equatable and not onerous for any particular section of the transport/commuter population. This scenario needs to be worked/researched/developed on now as what ever system is implemented will also have a profound effect on the type/size of vehicle that will be purchased as well as what the manufacturer is prepared to invest in and market.

[woodPixel]

Perhaps it will be simple?

Do it at rego time, one must report Kms travelled if electric and one is charged $c/Km

??

Whereas taxes are collected at the pump for piston vehicles, electric ones (manually) report their travels monthly/quarterly, just like we get our electricity bills now? Pay monthly/quaterly/yearly....

No doubt the Ze Gov will compel EVs to use some sort of automated data reporting (via inbuilt 3/4/5G)*



* I have a 3G/4G tracking and immobiliser (https://www.aliexpress.com/item/1005004766686095.html?) now in the car, which uses a $10 per year Amaysim SIM and SMS. Its pretty nifty. The link is an example. I can send it SMS commands to immobilise and it sends SMS if it goes outside a pre-set perimeter.

[russ57]

Victoria already charges ev owners by the km
EV at 2.6c and plug in hybrids @2.1c.
Self declared with reg renewal.
"to compensate for loss of petrol tax"

Although they still kindly offer $100 annual rego discount..