Electric, Hybrid or Just Wait [Archive]

Chris Parks

18th February 2021, 11:28 AM

Mick, short range hybrids are intended to do two things, cover most if not all the average trip to work or the shopping centre and lower the average emission levels to comply with European legislation. The ECU has imposed lower levels of emissions on a fleet average from each manufacturer and from a date which escapes me if the manufacturer exceeds the fleet average required they will be fined MILLIONS of Euros per DAY for each breach. These fines are what is driving the charge to zero tail pipe emissions as it will bankrupt any manufacturer very fast.

Keep in mind that you will need a charger in both Oberon and Sydney and for your purposes a long range Tesla would seem to be the obvious choice. What I don't like about the Tesla is the stark interior and learning how to use the screen will be a task. I don't know what the high end European manufacturers have available in Oz but I was told yesterday by my son who works for Mazda that Mazda are going to introduce a third option in Oz and that is a range extender, they also intend to introduce a full electric vehicle this year but it it will be a metro only car due to lack of range.

The range extender will have a very small rotary motor driving a generator so when the battery voltage falls the generator kicks in and out as needed. To my knowledge this will be a first for cars in the world and should be ideal for Oz having no limit on electric range.

I would like to buy a full electric car but most of the capable ones are way more than I want or need to spend so I am going to wait and see what happens. A hybrid to me only increases the complication of a vehicle for no practical reason. If a full electric vehicle won't do the job then buy a car with an internal combustion engine in it. If anyone has some spare cash can they please buy me a Porsche Taycan, any colour will do.

BobL

18th February 2021, 01:17 PM

I've spent a bit of time in my brother's Telsa and I'm sold on them. I would have bought one to replace our Subaru if SWMBO did not need a vehicle that was capable of towing a horse float with two horses I was also a bit put off by the stark interior of the Tesla but now I'm used to it. For me a vehicle should be primarily safe, require minimum attention, and be as unobtrusive as possible and it seems to do this very well.

FWIW my brother has been able to get his Air BNB property located about 60km from Perth designated as a Tesla destination changing point. Provided your electrical system can handle it this higher than average charging point is installed at no charge. His other semi-regular country run is 270km where there is a fast charging station.

Spyro

18th February 2021, 01:41 PM

Diesel for me for as long as we're allowed.
The goal is to keep the car I have and run it to the ground, depreciate it 10 times over. Stupid money pits.
I do however have an electric bicycle, same goal as above. Love the thing and ride it everywhere when it doesn't rain, only problem is it has some nylon cogs in the motor so it'll probably die earlier than the car.

Sorry for the totally irrelevant response :D

Bucky

18th February 2021, 02:00 PM

I bought a Toyota RAV4 hybrid. After 10,000kms averaging 5lts/100km. I live 10k out of Bundaberg, drive 2-3 times a week with trips to Brisbane.

fxst

18th February 2021, 02:04 PM

Spyro nylon cogs are no problem if you have a 3D printer.:D

Bernmc

18th February 2021, 02:17 PM

Battery tech is advancing so quickly that if you don't need a new car now, then it's worth waiting. I also have this (probably vain) hope that one of those fat, balding middle-age dinosaur politicians might actually face up to the future and get some incentives to go electric on the board.

Tesla are so far ahead of the game that I suspect it's going to be hard for traditional manufacturers to catch up - you'll need to skip ahead at times to avoid the bumpf, but this 2019 Tesla presentation (https://youtu.be/Ucp0TTmvqOE) will give you an idea of the incredible tech in their cars, and why they are so far ahead with their neural network and machine learning in the cars. There's a similar presentation on their battery tech.

The issue is price. They are just staggeringly expensive, as is cost of ownership (when I bought my oil-burner a couple of years ago, the Model S was the most expensive car to own in Aus). Australian models don;t seem to get all the features our international cousins do either - you can't get a tow hitch as a model 3 option here, whereas you can in Europe. The model Y is due sometime - it has a tow option in the US... who knows if we get it here. At the moment you'll need the most expensive tesla - the Model X - if you want to do anything as agricultural as towing.

The next gen Model S and X (https://youtu.be/wySJb1uxUg0) look a considerable step up, particularly with the interior (good to see an extra screen now as a more traditional instrument cluster) - due later this year or probably early next here as we are the butt-end of the world, I think they'd be worth waiting for if you have that kind of money to spend. I'm sure the tech will trickle down to the marginally less insanely expensive models.

Spyro

18th February 2021, 02:25 PM

Spyro nylon cogs are no problem if you have a 3D printer.:D
I know, and 3D printers are not a problem if you have a factory that makes 3D printers, and so forth :D

No seriously I'd love a 3D printer, unfortunately I've run out of both space and time (to learn how to use it) :(

rrich

18th February 2021, 04:43 PM

Just purely logical
In the LA Metro Area (LAMA) you can go 225 miles (365 Km) in a day point A to point B and return without thinking. An electric vehicle with a 250 or 275 range is pushing it but not impossible. Normal traffic in the LAMA can reduce range by 25% or 30%.

Putting petrol (gasoline) in a vehicle is typically a 5 to 10 minute task.

Restoring the energy in an electric vehicle to just half capacity is a 30 to 45 minute task at best.

An electrical vehicle would be ideal for my wife. Her 5 year old Explorer has less than 14,000 miles on it. She rarely drives beyond the city limits of Huntington Beach and then only less than 10 miles. An electric charging station connected to the shop (garage) electrical breaker panel could be easily self installed. (Yeah we can do that sort of stuff here without a sparky.)

Let's move from the logical into reality and enter into the candy a*r*s*e realm. I think that it has been 20 years since my wife put petrol into her vehicle. Even running the vehicle through a car wash probably has been at least 30 years but probably more. She is very good at reporting what warning lights and gauges say when things are not just right.

So, for her to plug the vehicle into the power point in the shop? Surely you jest. In our case, an electric would suffice until I kicked off. After that I don't know. In all probability a hybrid would be better for now and the years after I kick off. She could always go to the petrol station and ask for assistance.

There is another issue. I drive a F-150 pick-up truck. The F-150 is our primary vehicle when going some place and hauling home timber. BTW - The F-150 rides better than the Explorer and gets much better mileage. Don't bring mileage into the conversation. It is the driver but my wife doesn't believe it. Also the F-150 is much more comfortable sitting and just getting in and out. We are old pharts so that is understandable.

When we travel (Las Vegas, Phoenix, Portland Oregon) we use the F-150. These destinations do not have charging stations. There are few charging stations along the route. Most of the charging stations are of the "park it here all day" types. Using anything other than a petroleum based fuel is just not practicable for the F-150. Would hybrid work in the F-150? Yes it probably would be OK and the added weight of the batteries would only improve the ride. But if you already have the internal combustion motor, why deal with the complication of hybrid? Besides the initial cost would take years to even out vs. a pure internal combustion motor. What I'm seeing here is about $4000US premium for hybrid.

18th February 2021, 04:56 PM

This doesn't answer the question but when has that ever stopped me? :D

Having dealt with a lot of different rental cars here in Japan, I have to say, some of the small capacity (1.0L) motors with twin turbo/superchargers/whatever magic they do to them matched with CVT's of all kinds, are kind of incredible. Some of the ugly, boxy cars here are my favourite now. Impossibly practical, more go than you'd think they have any right to give, and stupidly low consumption. I'm not convinced the combustion engine is at the end of its life just yet, though the days are numbered.

500km range from a 5 minute charge, and we'll be there. I suspect that is a lot closer than we imagine, and I think it will be the Japanese that do it with Korea and China bringing it to the masses.

Chris Parks

18th February 2021, 04:58 PM

We are in the limbo between full electric and the end of ICE with the hybrid as a band aid to get us over the hump. Mick, you have been used to driving European cars and I reckon getting into a Tesla would be a major shock and learning to use it would be a bigger one. They are number 1 at the moment but the Europeans are just getting their act together and Volvo is one of the leaders. Jaguar announced the other day that every new model released from 2021 onwards would be full electric but they haven't released any new models as yet. You can hire a Tesla to get the feel for it and that might be a good idea and give me ride if you do. Rent or test drive a Tesla in Australia l Electric car hire | evee (https://www.evee.com.au)

woodPixel

18th February 2021, 05:22 PM

BobL

18th February 2021, 05:38 PM

Tesla are so far ahead of the game that I suspect it's going to be hard for traditional manufacturers to catch up - you'll need to skip ahead at times to avoid the bumpf, but this 2019 Tesla presentation (https://youtu.be/Ucp0TTmvqOE) will give you an idea of the incredible tech in their cars, and why they are so far ahead with their neural network and machine learning in the cars. There's a similar presentation on their battery tech..

Yep , their data integration is quickly leaving everything else in the dust.
The first thing Tesla recommended my brother did with his car was to park it within a trusted WIFI network whereby it upgraded its software and it does that every few weeks. At the same time it backloads a heap of driver data to Telsa. They use this data to improve their cars and as of late last year Telsa had over 1 billion miles of "experience data" from its cars. THE nearest competitor had was around 10 million miles of data.

My brother's Model 3 has a 3rd party tow hitch. Probably a copy of the European version, - it's not strictly approved but apparently many owners are putting them on. The car knows when it's towing and reports this - free testing for Telsa is probably they way they look at it.

Glider

18th February 2021, 06:23 PM

Would you be interested in taking a classic car and putting in an electric motor/battery management system?

I personally find these to be an attractive proposition. The cars are nicer, more stylish.

One could get the car, have it professionally restored, put an evil electric motor (https://www.zelectricmotors.com/) in and it would go like lightning.

489789 489790

Ssseeexxyyyy!!!!!!

It's an idea but I think I'll stick with tailor made. I also like the car to corner and stop; more or less matching the power plant.

It's a bit off topic but SWMBO has just traded her Mazda 3 for a Fiat Abarth 595 Competizione. Abarth 595 & 595C | Abarth® Australia (fiat.com.au) (https://www.fiat.com.au/abarth/595.html/?tracking=&utm_campaign=Abarth_595_Nameplate_Leads_0118_BMM&utm_source=google&utm_term=_+Abarth_+595&utm_medium=cpc&channel=paid_search&ds_rl=1280514&ds_rl=1280514&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIx9Cvqezy7gIVCNdMAh01iQAeEAAYASAAEgJyifD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds) NOW THAT'S A CAR! BTW Chris, if this is an example of a modern petrol powered car, the electronic systems are unbelievably complicated. I thought aircraft systems were bad enough and there's no simulator available.

Back on topic, it looks like the fuel economy of the RAV4 drops from 9.1L/100Km to 5.3L/100Km. I agree with the additional complexity argument and it may suit an Uber driver, but I can't see the value in a hybrid.

If I only did relatively short hops, I'd jump into an EV right now; possibly a Tesla. But I want the flexibility and convenience of my current vehicles. I could deal with a 15 minute break every 200 kms but there just aren't enough fast recharging stations in rural locations to make it worthwhile. I live in an apartment in Sydney and like most, there are no power outlets in the garage, much less in each car space. Goodness knows how many amps would be needed to recharge multiple cars overnight in a block of flats.

I wonder why no one has come up with a car which allows a fully charged battery swap.

I think I'll wait for EVs to catch up. I

mick :)

Spyro

18th February 2021, 06:24 PM

500km range from a 5 minute charge, and we'll be there. I suspect that is a lot closer than we imagine, and I think it will be the Japanese that do it with Korea and China bringing it to the masses.
It's not the range that's holding it back, it's the cost.
Make it cheaper to buy+run than the similar petrol ones and people will buy them, range or no range.

crowie

18th February 2021, 07:25 PM

Something that bothers me about batteries in electric cars is the cost to first produce the battery, the cost of replacing them and the inability to recycle the batteries.
I’ve also heard that in newer cheaper electric cars the batteries are in the substructure of the floor pan and aren’t replaceable.
Sorry folk I’m a fan of the style & sounds of old school muscle cars and electric doesn’t cut it.
Cheers crowie

BobL

18th February 2021, 07:44 PM

If I only did relatively short hops, I'd jump into an EV right now; possibly a Tesla. But I want the flexibility and convenience of my current vehicles. I could deal with a 15 minute break every 200 kms but there just aren't enough fast recharging stations in rural locations to make it worthwhile. I live in an apartment in Sydney and like most, there are no power outlets in the garage, much less in each car space. Goodness knows how many amps would be needed to recharge multiple cars overnight in a block of flats.

It turns put that it's not that bad.
Large blocks of flats are able to draw many hundreds of amp feeds from the grid and from about midnight to dawn flat occupants use stuff all power so they could be charging car batteries during this time. In most cases fast charging is not needed so midnight to 6am charging should be OK. A Tesla 16A 3P wall charger adds about 75km per hour of charge to the battery so 6 hours will almost top up a near flat battery. Not every one will be completely recharging their batteries every night - just like most people don't fill up with fuel everyday so I don't think power is an issue. Large blocks of flats can also fit very large solar PV systems most of which they don't use but cars at home during the day could charge up from this power source.

woodPixel

18th February 2021, 08:04 PM

On unit charging, in my block of flats, all the cars are parked down stairs.

When I enquired whether a recharger could be added to my spot, the body corp had absolutely no problem with this as long as it was metered.

Of course I had to pay for the install, but this wasn't too onerous.

I suggested that they install a few public chargers in the visitor parking, but they did not want to do this.... even though it added value to the block.... cest les vie.

elanjacobs

18th February 2021, 09:13 PM

Tesla are so far ahead of the game that I suspect it's going to be hard for traditional manufacturers to catch up
Maybe in the tech department, but Tesla still has a LOT of catching up to do in terms of actually being able to build cars properly.

18th February 2021, 09:49 PM

It's not the range that's holding it back, it's the cost.
Make it cheaper to buy+run than the similar petrol ones and people will buy them, range or no range.

Short range is an impediment to large scale up take. More range = more demand = higher volumes = lower cost. Eventually.

I'd not bet against the established players just yet.

elanjacobs

18th February 2021, 09:49 PM

Something that bothers me about batteries in electric cars is the cost to first produce the battery, the cost of replacing them and the inability to recycle the batteries.
There are developments in recycling tech happening. An Aussie mob called Envirostream says they can reclaim some 90% by weight of old batteries for re-use, and they're surely not the only ones working on it. I think I heard that there are also programs to ship them to developing countries to use as power storage for village solar setups; they can still hold a charge, just not enough to be useful in a car.

Sorry folk I’m a fan of the style & sounds of old school muscle cars and electric doesn’t cut it.
+1
Not muscle, but rice-burning VTEC yo :p 6-speed manual and 9000 rpm can't be replaced by the sound of a souped up Dyson

DomAU

18th February 2021, 10:45 PM

Can I ask what the main motivation(s) for buying an electric car are?

Is it on environmental grounds?

Is it on an overall cost of ownership basis?

Is it just because it's new and 'cool'?

Is it for some performance/functional reasons?

I ask because the answer may be significantly different under each.

On environmental grounds i'd say that keeping your current for as long as possible, maintaining it, driving it with mechanical sympathy and in an efficient way, and perhaps most importantly avoiding driving where possible is the least impactful to the environment overall.

If it's cost of ownership i'd say it's unlikely to be a good idea yet.

If it's for cool points then buy now while it's still cool and not the norm - then we'll be fondly reminising about petrol cars.

If it's functional / performance fair enough - although petrol is still better here.

Also, I don't want a car that logs my movements and usage or requires software updates or is monitored / connected at all times. No thankyou.

Cheers, Dom

elanjacobs

18th February 2021, 11:22 PM

On environmental grounds i'd say that keeping your current for as long as possible, maintaining it, driving it with mechanical sympathy and in an efficient way, and perhaps most importantly avoiding driving where possible is the least impactful to the environment overall.
Ehhh...I'm not so sure about that

If it's cost of ownership i'd say it's unlikely to be a good idea yet.
Again, not so sure. Your ongoing maintenance costs are basically nothing because nearly all the consumables on normal cars don't exist with an EV; all you have left is wiper blades, tyres and brake pads (which you'd need to buy anyway), and you won't have to replace the pads nearly as often because of regenerative braking via the motor.

If it's functional / performance fair enough - although petrol is still better here.
Depends what kind of performance you mean; petrol still wins around a track in most cases (the Porsche Taycan might have something to say about that), but, if all you want to do is mash the accelerator and teleport down the road, you can't beat a top end Tesla in a straight line this side of $1m

Chris Parks

18th February 2021, 11:38 PM

I wonder why no one has come up with a car which allows a fully charged battery swap.

I think I'll wait for EVs to catch up. I

mick :)

Nisan tried the battery replacement in Israel years ago and the idea fell over badly. Tesla are taking the opposite approach with making the batteries an integral part of the car. Right now I think it is too early for anyone who regularly commutes in rural areas over longish distances in Oz. It can be done but most people would not like the restrictions it places on their trips. The last long trip I did was 11 hours straight without getting out of the car but then I have done that sort of driving since I got a license.

DomAU

19th February 2021, 07:11 AM

Ehhh...I'm not so sure about that

Again, not so sure. Your ongoing maintenance costs are basically nothing because nearly all the consumables on normal cars don't exist with an EV; all you have left is wiper blades, tyres and brake pads (which you'd need to buy anyway), and you won't have to replace the pads nearly as often because of regenerative braking via the motor.

Depends what kind of performance you mean; petrol still wins around a track in most cases (the Porsche Taycan might have something to say about that), but, if all you want to do is mash the accelerator and teleport down the road, you can't beat a top end Tesla in a straight line this side of $1m

I reckon if you totalled up all of the carbon emissions and environmental damage related to the manufacturing of a car (including mining and manufacturing steel - which is one of the largest sources of carbon emissions alongside concrete) as well as the impact of lithium mining, it would take many many many years to offset that purely from fuel use - and you'd need to be doing many km's. Hence not producing another car, prolonging the life of existing cars and avoiding their use (ride a bike, take public transport, carpool etc) would be the best option.

In terms of cost, other than the engine, gearbox and radiator you still have brakes, suspension, wheel bearings, filters, air-con, bushings, tyres, etc. But yeah I'm sure you do save some on engine oil & filters, timing belts, cooling system etc. Though given the high purchase price vs petrol and likely depreciation as tech improves i'm not sure the total cost of ownership would be lower - assuming that the battery lasts as long as claimed and that you don't have electronic issues.

In terms of performance - straight line acceleration off the line is impressive but also the least important aspect - I suspect the handling of a nearly 2 tonne Tesla would pale in comparison to a similarly priced car from the big auto makers.

Cheers, Dom

BobL

19th February 2021, 09:36 AM

I reckon if you totalled up all of the carbon emissions and environmental damage related to the manufacturing of a car (including mining and manufacturing steel - which is one of the largest sources of carbon emissions alongside concrete) as well as the impact of lithium mining, it would take many many many years to offset that purely from fuel use - and you'd need to be doing many km's. Hence not producing another car, prolonging the life of existing cars and avoiding their use (ride a bike, take public transport, carpool etc) would be the best option.

I agree that avoiding their use is very important but as we are an ageing population with crappy public transport system I can't see that happening.

Even using just fossil fuel powered electricity to charge batteries recent research shows a significant reduction in environmental damage.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0488-7.epdf?sharing_token=a2-xgvUGoGuCK7Ia_klZ_9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OMBHrNGD6k2npei17x4aWWLctOfIoyfalbH9WNy5EPZCOSWTbm4pfMxuvEuQUnMLucyflmQIn5HpLaUaMirBC_mtUmMau4zfk7ef7XRklb2wAgWHQwZGmHKorQS2ejCIJFrCHZl5Ckw3zDtefYQP1tn_pg1gt-wHvcYE5pGvqLS7nQAejdAhRDD7qReLYww_o%3D&tracking_referrer=www.theguardian.com

As soon as renewables are used for recharging it's game over.

In terms of cost, other than the engine, gearbox and radiator you still have brakes, suspension, wheel bearings, filters, air-con, bushings, tyres, etc. But yeah I'm sure you do save some on engine oil & filters, timing belts, cooling system etc. Though given the high purchase price vs petrol and likely depreciation as tech improves i'm not sure the total cost of ownership would be lower - assuming that the battery lasts as long as claimed and that you don't have electronic issues..
Conventional vehicles don't have electronic issues???

In terms of performance - straight line acceleration off the line is impressive but also the least important aspect - I suspect the handling of a nearly 2 tonne Tesla would pale in comparison to a similarly priced car from the big auto makers.

"Pale" is a big claim.
Have a look at this - skip through to the 19 minute mark for the lap times.
It turns out that all that acceleration is really useful for coming out of corners.
You have to remember that Audi and BMW have bout a century of motoring heritage to draw on whereas EV manufacturers have ~1/5th of that

Forgot to add that my brother who has owned several Audis and BMWs (and currency has 6 cafe racers) pretty much agrees with that track test. He's reached that stage in his life where he just wants hassle free (mainly city) motoring. He was very concerned about the charging aspects but he says that he's used to is now and has yet to be caught short.

I do realise EVs still don't suit a lot of Aussies needs, like I said we needed 2 tone towing capacity for the next 2-3 years and couldn't wait for something like the cyber trick so we went for a basic Diesel 4WD.

Chris Parks

19th February 2021, 10:53 AM

The Tesla has near nil service costs compared to an ICE powered car. Brake life can be +200,000 kms because of regen braking which effectively gives the driver one foot driving as the brake pedal in normal start stop is never used. All the oily bits plus the entire drive line are gone, and it is those especially the transmission that produce the most maintenance problems. A vast majority of mechanical work is replacing transmissions, turbos whole motors etc and that is done every day as a routine job to many many cars. The forecast is that with the arrival of BEV's the workload will be so low that service depts will shed the majority of staff. The service schedule for a Tesla is seen here a few minor items annually Car Maintenance | Tesla Australia (https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/support/car-maintenance) Looking at that you will appreciate why the service side of the motor industry is going to be decimated in the long term.

Every argument and problem listed in this thread has been aired elsewhere thousands of times and most of the problems raised have proven to be wrong many times over. The BEV at the moment is not a good fit for Oz because of the lack of infrastructure to support it and remote area operation is sill not possible and it will be interesting to see where the ICE vehicles come from when Europe shuts down the production of them.

The European legislators have taken a hard nosed approach and have legislated for zero tail pipe emissions by certain dates and these are backed by crippling punitive fines which will bankrupt even the major manufacturers if they are not met. Tesla are selling carbon credits to several manufacturers who are lagging in their emissions reduction program and Fiat is one of those companies.

BobL

19th February 2021, 12:12 PM

When I visited the US in 2006 I met an environmental scientist in the US EPA who was relatively "green". He had a solar passive house with an organic waste recycling system, and even back then he had solar panels. Normally he cycled to work and most other places but on days he drove to work his daily drive car was a mint condition 454 Chevy behemoth that he bought new in 1970 and it had since done less than 150k miles and had done all the repairs and servicing himself. I went for several sides in it and reckon you could sit 5 people on each of the front and back bench seats in that thing.

Eventually I got to know him well enough to ask how he justified ownership of such a vehicle in view of his "green-ness"?

He told me he had done a full carbon budget on it and explained that as he only did about 4000 miles a year in that car he reckoned the car had at least 10 more years of life in it it was less carbon polluting than buying a new car. However he did say that whenever the time came he was going to buy an electric vehicle. This came in 2015 when developed heath probs and could no longer cycle to work and had to drive everywhere. The good thing was he had kept the car in such good condition that he was able to sell it for close to the cost of the electric vehicle he ended up purchasing.

It's a interesting story but I don't think it's that applicable to many Australians living in public transport-less 'burbs

DomAU

19th February 2021, 12:29 PM

I agree that avoiding their use is very important but as we are an ageing population with crappy public transport system I can't see that happening.

Even using just fossil fuel powered electricity to charge batteries recent research shows a significant reduction in environmental damage.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0488-7.epdf?sharing_token=a2-xgvUGoGuCK7Ia_klZ_9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OMBHrNGD6k2npei17x4aWWLctOfIoyfalbH9WNy5EPZCOSWTbm4pfMxuvEuQUnMLucyflmQIn5HpLaUaMirBC_mtUmMau4zfk7ef7XRklb2wAgWHQwZGmHKorQS2ejCIJFrCHZl5Ckw3zDtefYQP1tn_pg1gt-wHvcYE5pGvqLS7nQAejdAhRDD7qReLYww_o%3D&tracking_referrer=www.theguardian.com

As soon as renewables are used for recharging it's game over.

Conventional vehicles don't have electronic issues???

"Pale" is a big claim.
Have a look at this - skip through to the 19 minute mark for the lap times.
It turns out that all that acceleration is really useful for coming out of corners.
You have to remember that Audi and BMW have bout a century of motoring heritage to draw on whereas EV manufacturers have ~1/5th of that

Forgot to add that my brother who has owned several Audis and BMWs (and currency has 6 cafe racers) pretty much agrees with that track test. He's reached that stage in his life where he just wants hassle free (mainly city) motoring. He was very concerned about the charging aspects but he says that he's used to is now and has yet to be caught short.

I do realise EVs still don't suit a lot of Aussies needs, like I said we needed 2 tone towing capacity for the next 2-3 years and couldn't wait for something like the cyber trick so we went for a basic Diesel 4WD.

Top Gear's assessment of the Model 3's handling - "the remote, synthetic steering feels like it’s come off an early Xbox rig and the brakes are mushy.

The Performance can be coaxed into powerslides, but you can sense the sheer mass heaving around in direction changes and the Model 3 feels out of sorts when pushed..."

Also, in the recent reliability survey conducted by J.D. Power Tesla ranked dead last with 2.5 issues per car sold in the first months of ownership, further - “They are exclusive and look great and do some very good things, but they aren’t that reliable and when they break, they are not easy to fix,” Fisher said. Regardless, Fisher said he enjoys driving Teslas.

So in terms of both performance and reliability / cost of ownership i'm not convinced.

I agree that the impact to the environment is likely lower for an EV vs an equivalent IC vehicle, however that was not my point. The impact would certainly be lower not producing another vehicle to begin with, and prolonging use of the vehicles we already have vs disposing of them prematurely. If nobody had a car and we were starting fresh then yes, EV would likely be better for the environment. But the rate of production would also have an impact - if we want vast quantities of metals, lithium, etc in a hurry to quickly convert all vehicles over, it's likely to lead to less than desirable practises from an enviornmental standpoint.

I think it's the future, amd rightly so, but I don't think it's necessarily a good thing for the environment trying to convert all IC vehicles to electric asap. And obviously any car is net bad for the environment - just how bad will vary.

Cheers, Dom

BobL

19th February 2021, 02:18 PM

DomAU

19th February 2021, 02:39 PM

I wouldnt necessarily rate Top gears assessment of anything better than the guys in the vid link I supplied. Drive Feel is highly subjective and is not something even experienced drivers can get used to quickly especially if they have only driven conventional cars.

In 20 years time we’ll be asking ourselves what the fuss was all about.

Shall we talk about driverless cars? I can’t wait. I used to be a very keen driver and would drive anywhere just to go for a drive, now I’d rather be doing something else like sleeping.

Ha. I am for driverless cars for those that don't like to drive and that would prefer to look at their phones. But it'll be a sad day when the enjoyment of driving a car or riding a motorbike is taken from us. I will feel far safer as a cyclist however.

Cheers, Dom

woodPixel

19th February 2021, 03:22 PM

An offering for driverless cars will be an absolute goldmine-goldrush-space-explosion for the economy.

-- I will be able to go back to work as my disabled wife no longer needs me as a taxi
-- She will have independence, not having to ask me to drive her to appointments/hospital/places, even though I'm happy to do it
-- Custom cars based on function, rather than generic offerings.... special vehicles for the disabled, ages, immobile, bulky.... face to face like the Sydney trains... Bobbles, large windows, pope mobiles :)

-- People can pre-book a trip to work, group with others, save money
-- Fewer car parking spots in the city centre!
-- Fewer cars on the road!

-- Deliveries can be entirely automated. Bunnings puts your parcel into Compartment 17 of Auto-Truck and 5 minutes before it arrives a message pops up on your phone "Come and Get It!".... you press a button on the phone, it pops open the door to Compartment 17 with your stuff..... no people! .... off it trundles to the next delivery.

-- Bookings, Wheres My Car, pre-booking, per KM charging, ping for pickup.... all on the phone. Perfection.

-- While some will need a car, most will not.
-- A collection of 20 cars would service 500 people.... less traffic.
-- Less noise. Fewer hoons. Time to sleep, read, email, watch a video, chat with the kids.....
-- Have the kids picked up from a party.... same for if you've had too much pisso at the soiree :)

-- If it needs a charge, off it goes to a public spot and auto-plugs itself in. Pop these centres around the place.
-- Increased "security" as they can be all mounted with 80 cameras, all beaming a 5G signal to home base in case of ...strife....

There will be no need for tradies to give up their utes... but for the average suburban Joe? Owning a car will be pure stupidity.

For the tradies, why not have auto-cars that are essentially sotrage/delivery boxes? Deliver stuff to the worksite... chuck all the tools into a box at the end of the day and off it trundles to a secure overnight storage (where I live, there have been 2 guys knocked off of EVERYTHING in the last month).

HUGE HUGE HUGE opportunities.

DJ’s Timber

19th February 2021, 04:38 PM

Have a look at this - skip through to the 19 minute mark for the lap times.

I wouldnt necessarily rate Top gears assessment of anything better than the guys in the vid link I supplied.

Bob, no vid link???

elanjacobs

19th February 2021, 05:06 PM

Sorry to be "that guy", but fully autonomous is not coming any time soon for a few reasons.

1) The technology is nowhere near ready. Maybe on a closed loop where the autonomous traffic is completely isolated from pedestrians and human drivers, but it's simply not able to cope with a dynamic road at this stage.
2) Liability. Who's responsible in an accident? It can't be you because you're not driving it, so who's it gonna be? The car manufacturer? The software developer? Or maybe it's still you because you're the owner? What if it's a taxi or rental? It's a legal minefield.
3) And this is the big one. In order for a fully autonomous car to be able to navigate a live traffic scenario, where decisions about evasive action will need to be made, ethics has to be mathematically solved. You've probably heard of the Trolley Problem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_problem); an autonomous car will need to be able to make that decision, which means that someone (or group of people) will have to write the code that decides who gets to live. Then, every time you get inside, you will have to accept that, based on a computer program written on the other side of the world by people you will never know, your car might decide to swerve into a tree and potentially kill you because someone ran onto the road, or, even worse, because a dodgy sensor or camera thought someone ran onto the road.

These are massive issues that need to be tackled before there's any hope of fully autonomous cars becoming a reality and I don't think it will happen.

62woollybugger

19th February 2021, 06:37 PM

Not everyone will like his style, but he lays out the pros & cons very well.
12 things I've learned after driving an electric car 9000km | Auto Expert John Cadogan - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gqbTHk4egw)

NewLou

19th February 2021, 07:23 PM

Ive got a 2019 Prius and routinely get 3.0 litres per 100km of a 26km commute I love the dam thing best car I have ever owned will step up to another Prius when they upgrade the battery then full electric Tesla after decking out the Roof with Solar Panels with the biggest BAttery I can afford

Im not a spread sheet nutbuster in a binary + - Dollar world To My Mind you cant put a price on reducing your carbon footprint!

Why because of our Kids kids if we dont get our )(*&#$^%(*&#_^*&^ together they will inherit our self centred greed and selfishness ................Well after its to late!

Anywhoooo every little thing we can do helps The Prius also got voted most reliable car of 2020 from memory (From a well regarded consumer survey) Its Not A Rocket but a graceful glider! The Stereo system also ROCKS!

My 5 Cents worth

REgards Lou :D

NewLou

19th February 2021, 07:28 PM

Oh by they way many moons before this I rode nothing but big bore Jap bikes topping out on a ZZR-1100 (FAstest Production Bike at the time) Didnt own a car till 28 who would a thought LOL!

Spyro

19th February 2021, 08:33 PM

In terms of car costs nothing beats new car depreciation.
There are some acceptable reasons to buy a new car, saving money is not one of them, that's just something we tell our wives.
You'd have to have a total old guzzler/wreck and replace it with a very cheap new car to *maybe* make that equation work.

In terms of environmental concerns, nothing beats not driving a car as much as possible. Except not owning a car.
Try an electric bike if you can, you might like it. It's a legitimate transportation option if you don't have passengers, but look around you, 90% of the cars on the road only have one person in them.
Moving a tonne of steel just to get one person from A to B is ridiculously wasteful, how often do we really need to do that?

And please don't tell me about speed, it's Australia, slowest speed limits and strictest traffic police in the universe. I can break those speed limits with your average scooter.

Having said all that, if a car makes you happy, it's your passion/hobby/deep desire/whatever, absolutely get that car! Happiness is very important and all the justification that is required.
I just don't like rationalising it with other stuff, in my experience rationalisations lead to unhappiness.

smidsy

20th February 2021, 06:48 PM

Bushmiller

20th February 2021, 07:44 PM

I don't see the point in having an electric car when you have to charge it from a fossil fuel burning powerstation - it's like arguing a murder charge on the basis that you used a knife instead of a gun.

My sis in Norway has had electric cars (currently 2 Teslas) for many years, and the Norwegian government embraces them with free parking & tolls, lower rego and sales tax plus other benefits - but Norway gets most of their power from hydro-electric so it IS clean energy.
To me, as long they're being charged from a fossil fuel burning power source electric cars are tokenism.

Smidsy

After being the harbinger of doom, I think you nailed the issue in your second and third paragraphs. It depends entirely on the source of the mains power electricity. So hydro, solar and wind generated power represents a real benefit in terms of reducing greenhouse gases. Having said that, the efficiencies of thermal coal (or gas) fired power stations are still better than a petrol or diesel powered car so there will be a small benefit.

Although, a self confessed fan of solar power, it is short sighted to think there will be an instantaneous transition. An electric car purchased today may still reap the benefit down the track.

Just for amusement The White Zombie is a 1972 Datsun that was converted to electric power back in the nineties way before EVs became cool (if they are cool that is). My memory is that the creator used to drive it around on the street as his everyday transport. Here are a few videos of this car that looks similar to the one your favourite, ancient auntie drives to the shops.

White Zombie vs maserati - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGQSQAz9v6c)

Running On Lithium: White Zombie vs. Corvette - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtrpBJbLT9M)

White Zombie Electric Dragster Coming to Auto Show 2011 - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RESC54vHr40)

The White Zombie with Lithium polymer battery pack - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfbPf3WExwU)

Instant full torque in an electric motor means that in a drag race all the damage is done in the first two hundred meters while the combustion engines are still building revs. However, it would probably be a different result over a standing mile.

Just in case you think I am full of electrical bullmanure, I am. My disclaimer is that I work as an operator in a coal-fired, supercritical power station. I like to think I am a realist both in terms of fossil fuels and renewables.

Regards
Paul

20th February 2021, 08:35 PM

This is going to be very Japan specific, but maybe worth a 'what if?'

Our solution here is simply to not own a car. We pay about $10/month for access to share cars that are all over the place, booked through an app. We make use of that about 4-6 times a year. For holidays, we rent a car for a month, that suits the number of passengers and what we intend to do with it. 2 people driving around staying in hotels? Small car will do. Camping/skiing with friends? Lets get something a bit bigger/more roomy. Need to move? Hire van for the day, or biggest people mover the car share service has. Done. Train/bike/walk for everything else. Not only do we save depreciation, maintenance, insurance etc etc, parking here can cost easily $3-4k p/a on it's own, unless you have a house.

No brainer.

I'd still like to own one though :laughing1:

elanjacobs

20th February 2021, 11:23 PM

I don't see the point in having an electric car when you have to charge it from a fossil fuel burning powerstation
Because the emissions are STILL lower than a petrol car.

Bernmc

21st February 2021, 07:25 AM

RACV publish car running costs every year. There's a basic calculator at the bottom of this page. Limited models, but you can get a decent representation.

2019 Car Running Costs | RACV (https://www.racv.com.au/on-the-road/buying-a-car/car-running-costs.html).

$500 odd a week for a Tesla is still a bit steep for me unfortunately

elver

21st February 2021, 07:36 AM

Glider,

Well looking at the thread I didn’t see anyone who actually has an electric car. (Just a whole lot of schnitzel re Tesla blah blah or can’t recycle blah blah - this is all just delaying tactics. )

I do have an electric car. 2017 Nissan Leaf ex Japan.

Purchased mid this year, $30k with 14000 km on it. Looked basically new, had full battery capacity. It’s cheap because Japanese govt subsidises them so when you buy an import you get the value of that subsidy in depreciating their second hand market. And the Japanese love to keep cars really well. (Import was by a retired Gold Coast importer who now does imports to top up pension still)

So it does 250km easily. Meter says it will do 276km (ymmv)
I charge from my solar power at home. If it doesn’t charge from sun I top it off with coal at night before a trip.
Bowser fill up is free from NRMA fast chargers (45mins) and $11 from the Chargefox network. Drive 250km, plug car in, drink coffee, eat something, stretch legs then drive on - no big deal. No more servo pies. An unintended consequence is you eat better food on road trips because you make time to.

40000 km between services. Yup that’s what the manual says. So that’s probably 5 or 6 ever. (No wonder the car industry is scared of these - it’s their push to change and they don’t want to)

I bought this when my 12 year old daughter said to me ‘dad, if we’ve got the tech to not burn fossil fuels why don’t you adults just man up and stop ruining the world a you guys got all the good stuff and your leaving the place in ruins for me? ‘ so someone’s got to man up and get off the crack of oil and coal, and I may as well start at home.

From my calcs at time of purchase the cost per km including depreciation is $0.32 per km, same as my Hyundai IX35 while Tesla was something like $2 per km. Even when fuelled by my “free” (more like prepaid) solar power. So net $0 cost to change to non polluting fuels. The only issue was is the range good enough, and with some searching the 30kW leaf was a good fit.

I didn’t go hybrid as they mostly need to burn fuel to run AC, and sitting is a sweaty car should be something left in the 80’s. And, I think hybrids are just a gateway drug to oil. You need cold turky to get off the oil based thinking.

So, $ wise purchase comparable to a new mid sized car.
Distance - gets me to where I need to be (reliable 200km range) but won’t do home to Sydney (600km) in the same time. The charging chews up hours of the trip and as a non cooled battery pack fast charging heats it up and trims mileage, so not good for the trip times)
Cost to run- gets pretty darn close to nothing on solar (I only feed it power above my export cap so it’s power that never would have got made if I hadn’t jammed it in the car. )

This is our second car- we have a big diesel to do the odd massive run / tow-camper.

Oh - at home we charge from a 15amp standard power point. Trickle charge is just fine. I have a timer. Turns on power at 10 and off at 3 so charges when I hit export limit.

Lastly - compared to household battery this is waaaay better at reducing total emissions. We burn 6kw of power from the grid per day (4ppl). That’s equivalent to the emissions from something like 20km driving. (Most people burn much more than that) So if it’s co2 that gets you thinking, fix the car emissions before the residual power emissions once you have a full roof of solar panels.

Oh - and if you don’t have a roof covered in solar panels, and I mean covered, your literally missing the best ROI out there at present. $ for $ they are the best thing you can do if you have $5k sitting in the bank or a term deposit etc.
Don’t let export limiting cripple your thoughts on solar sizing - it’s rainy day export you want to aim for, and while the Govt is giving away panels max out your house roof and capture it in the house in the car and get ready for cheaper batteries for the house in the future. My system produces 1 to 2 kW/he on a rainy day, and with some thinking that covers all our power needs when the sun is up.

My next step is vehicle to grid to power the house at night. The Leaf is one of the few cars configured to do that out of the box.

crowie

21st February 2021, 08:29 AM

Just a side issue!

What ever happened to Hydrogen Powered cars running on tap water??

rrich

21st February 2021, 08:31 AM

Spyro

21st February 2021, 01:59 PM

There seems to be a large sentiment for autonomous vehicles. I have driven a level 3 autonomous vehicle on the 405 Interstate in the Los Angeles area. It was a Sunday and early afternoon. There wasn't much traffic but enough for a sufficient test of the technology. The vehicle was a Cadillac something or other. The car had lane keeping and speed keeping functions.

The Cadillac did what it was supposed to do. I set the speed to be a bit faster than traffic. The car did exactly what it was supposed to and told to do. When we approached an interchange with another Interstate highway, the autonomous feature disengaged and I resumed control.

The Interstate or freeway is 4 lanes plus a carpool lane. There are places where the lanes can grow from the previous mentioned 5 to 7 or 8 in the area of entrances and exits. I was driving in the second lane plus carpool from the center medium.

There were places where the experience was delightful. There were other times that were terrifying. The terrifying aspects were when looking ahead and seeing one of those, "What is that idiot doing?" and 2 lanes over. Normally I would have lifted. But the Cadillac is driving and "It ain't in my lane so I ain't going to worry." In this case I'm thinking "That idiot is going to . . . . ." Sure enough, the idiot did and the Cadillac had to brake noticeably. And there is the real problem with autonomous vehicles. None of the vehicles have Mind Reading 101 installed. While most of us, after years of driving on limited access roads have developed a sense of "I know what that idiot is going to do." Not real mind reading but it keeps us alive out there.

On a side note. My son has a commute on the Interstate and he will see something out of character and wonder why did they do that? When he catches up to the vehicle he realizes it was the autonomous vehicle and not the driver.
I could never drive or even be in such a car, it would freak me out

I did a rough calc the other day and I've driven so far about half a million kilometres in 5 different countries, and I've never been in (or be the cause of) an accident. I learned to drive in Greece which is a whole different kettle of fish, you have to use all your senses all the time just to stay alive. Ever tried to drive in narrow slippery streets with a swarm of scooters orbiting you, dodging potholes while being tailgated and honked at as soon as you don't break the speed limit or don't cross a red? That's Athens. As a result my driving is weird to most people. I basically do what I know is safe for me and everybody around me, and yes that goes beyond the rules sometimes, but it goes both ways. Like, I don't care if I have the right of way or a green light in front of me, I just don't trust people to stop for me, if I sense something sightly wrong I WILL slow down, all the way to a stop on the side if I have to. In my experience road rules, even if everyone follows them, are correct and safe 99.9% of the time. And that's just not good enough because I am on the road long enough for that 0.1% to become important.

No idea how you'd explain all that to a car and trust it to do it.
Not for me, sorry.

rrich

21st February 2021, 05:49 PM

As a teen, I learned or rather was taught to drive in Southern California. My mother was the primary instructor and could not back up a vehicle if her life depended on it. ("When I back up it feels as if the car is in control and not me.) When my father was the instructor, all he did was scream, yell, curse and brow beat me. It was so bad that I got a neighbor to take me in her car to take my behind the wheel test. When I passed and the license came in the mail both of my parents had different reactions. My father was livid because he lost control and my mother was delighted as there was someone to driver her around.

After I passed my test I became the chauffer for the family. The best thing that ever happened was the speedometer cable broke in my father's car and the speedometer stopped working. My mother ALWAYS sat in the front passenger seat. The only words I ever remember her saying were, "Ooooh you're going too fast." The good thing about no speedometer is that I learned to "Go with the flow" at a very early age. In California Go with the flow is the basic unofficial traffic law. I have been in traffic going with the flow at 88 MPH or 142 KPH in the LA Metro area and 95 MPH or 153 KPH in a rural area. The 95 was a bit scary and of the group of 30 or so going 95 about half dropped out of the group and slowed to around 80 after moving out of the fast lane.

I wound up in jobs that required travel. In the US, various areas are like going to different countries based on driving styles.
Florida - What are you aiming at?
Boston - ALWAYS get the collision damage waiver on the rental car.
New York city - Take a cab.
Rochester, NY - Flying in from Pittsburgh I was on another planet before I got out of the airport.
Washington DC - Hold the rental car map at eye level for all to see. Use your turn signal and even the cabs will get out of your way.
Pittsburgh - Probably the most polite drivers in the world.
The rest of Pennsylvania - Watch out for the state troopers.
Ohio - Rural - They are farmers with no sense of time except for Sunday go to meeting.
Ohio - City - All different, everything from good to bad and worse.
Texas - Seat belts are mandatory. But you can legally drink beer while driving. Don't be the first to drive through the dirt to exit the freeway but it's OK to follow the path.
Houston - Don't be surprised by topless drivers. Only been there a few times but saw at least a dozen total.
Denver - Advice from a resident was "Beware of muddy pick-up trucks on the freeway."
Seattle - No lane discipline what so ever. Traffic gets very bad when there are sun bursts.
Anchorage - Courteous until you try to take advantage.
Phoenix - Not bad except during 'Snow Bird' season, then when the light turns green look both ways.
San Francisco - They think that they are the West Coast New York City, but they're not.
San Jose - A.K.A Silicon Valley - Too aggressive for a long life span.
Los Angeles - Into down town very mellow, just use your turn signal. Into Orange County beware.

Finally
Edmonton, Alberta, Canada - Slow down, take it easy, everybody loves you.
One of the few cities on this continent where I could easily relocate.

woodPixel

21st February 2021, 06:36 PM

Almost as good as Canberra drivers. They take the cake. Worst I've experienced anywhere in the world.

-- Sit in your blind spot (what is with this????)
-- Can't merge / zipper
-- Will NOT give way
-- Will NOT let you in
-- Will NOT slow down to let you in on freeways, in fact they speed up to block you
-- Half are asleep after work (haven't woken up after leaving their desks apparently)
-- Bumblers. Bumbling blumblers. Dreary. Sleep walking. Too much medication.... Neeevvveeerrrr iiiinnnn aaaa hhhurrryyyyy... time works at 1/3rd speed for them.
-- The other half drive up your
-- 80% refuse to use blinkers, and if they do, its AFTER they've moved into the lane (BMW X-series drivers still dont use use them at all, but that's universal!)

and the clanger? Red Lights ... unless its red for a full second, they keep going through it. EVERY time I drive I see at least one or two incidents of where our light is green and some turkey flies through. Its terrible. Worse, is the light changes here are as slow as a week of Sundays.

Contrast this to Sydney. Ah, love Sydney. Drove through Leichardt, Glebe, Stanmore, Ultimo for a couple of times for a couple of weeks and .... wow. Flows, no agro, smooth, predictable. Sure it was chaos incarnate... but zero agro, zero accidents and zero fingers. Everyone happy and doing their thing.

On electric cars, China is pounding them out. Dirt cheap! They are pretty basic, but thats what the VW Beetle did... cars for the masses... They sell for something like $8000.... let me see if I can find the info.

Check Out These Five New Electric Cars From China, World's Largest EV Market (https://www.forbes.com/sites/tychodefeijter/2016/11/25/check-out-these-five-new-electric-cars-from-china-worlds-largest-ev-market/)
Chinese Electric Cars Will Take Over The World – If We Let Them (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmorris/2020/07/18/chinese-electric-cars-will-take-over-the-world--if-we-let-them/)
G.M. Wants to Make Electric Cars. China Dominates the Market. - The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/business/gm-china-electric-cars.html)

What I really love is certain authorities are being smart. France (?) (I think) has a rule where kids can drive these low-powered hyper-basic cars to school as they are limited to 30 or 40km/h. This is super smart. Given a BIKE can do 40km/h this is nothing a kid cant handle.

Once a bumbling auto-car is invented, these things will be EVERYWHERE! Imagine the excellence of a car that takes the kids to school, comes home, charges, takes dad to work, repeats, takes mum to the shops, repeats and then takes the kids to their friends after school. All with safety, security, an auto-call back function.... fantastic!

Spyro

21st February 2021, 07:22 PM

I started driving around 12 LOL
Only in the summers though, around the holiday house. Most kids around there did, some havent bothered to get a license to this day.

Spyro

21st February 2021, 10:16 PM

rrich

22nd February 2021, 04:35 PM

when you get to the bottleneck you realise it's just some guy with a flat tyre on the side of the road or something stupid like that,

You think that is bad?

A gal in short shorts and a brig shirt tied around her waist changing a tire will destroy traffic flow twice. Twice? Yeah. Her doing her thing and then a bit further down the road for the second time and the fist fight among the 14 blokes that stopped to help her.

AlexS

23rd February 2021, 08:20 AM

In California Go with the flow is the basic unofficial traffic law.
Have to agree with this. I'd been warned both by Australians who'd driven there and Americans from other parts of the country, that Californian, especially LA, drivers were terrifying, so I wasn't looking forward to driving there. However, I found that the only way to drive safely was to drive the same way as everyone else - fast, close to the person in front, but if someone needs to change lanes in front of you, let them in.

Re merging, when I drove to work there was one point where the exit from a 70 km/h main road merged onto a 90km main road. During the week, almost always the merge was smooth. People would speed up from 70 to 90, and slip in smoothly. At weekends, there would always be someone who came to a stop waiting for a break in the traffic.

rrich

23rd February 2021, 02:11 PM

Just today I had to take my F-150 to the dealer for a recall. After the pick-up truck had been updated I'm driving on the 91 freeway to go home. I'm in the #2 lane just going with the flow at over 85 MPH (136 KPH) AND people were passing me on both sides.

elanjacobs

23rd February 2021, 05:28 PM

And there's genuinely no reason not to drive that fast on a freeway. Pretty much any car built in the last 30 years will comfortably cruise at 130 km/h, tires and brakes are miles better than they were 50 years ago when 100 km/h was actually fast, and you're gonna be just as dead crashing at 100 as 130

Chris Parks

23rd February 2021, 08:06 PM

There were places where the experience was delightful. There were other times that were terrifying. The terrifying aspects were when looking ahead and seeing one of those, "What is that idiot doing?" and 2 lanes over. Normally I would have lifted. But the Cadillac is driving and "It ain't in my lane so I ain't going to worry." In this case I'm thinking "That idiot is going to . . . . ." Sure enough, the idiot did and the Cadillac had to brake noticeably. And there is the real problem with autonomous vehicles. None of the vehicles have Mind Reading 101 installed. While most of us, after years of driving on limited access roads have developed a sense of "I know what that idiot is going to do." Not real mind reading but it keeps us alive out there.

On a side note. My son has a commute on the Interstate and he will see something out of character and wonder why did they do that? When he catches up to the vehicle he realizes it was the autonomous vehicle and not the driver.

My petrol powered car would have reacted exactly the same way. Until cars talk to each other directly and this is in the prototype stage the lane swapping problem will continue. The autonomous driving problems always crop up in BEV discussions for some reason when they really have no relationship to the original question. The reason there has been very little real world answers to Mick's OP is that the electric BEV is still a fairly rare beast in Oz and will remain that way due to the overriding non action of the politicians and their refusal to follow the subsidy schemes put into place in other countries. VW Australia are on record saying that they encourage natural market forces and no subsidies but that was before VW Europe went pedal to the metal to introduce a plethora of new BEV models. I wonder if they still hold the same view?

woodPixel

25th February 2021, 10:07 AM

Chris Parks

25th February 2021, 02:23 PM

Here is an article that shoots my hypothesis and enthusiasm to shreds!

The hype, high hopes and sobering reality of the future of car travel - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-25/electric-autonomous-cars-hype-v-reality-car-sharing/13178910)

Hindenburg!

From the linked article we get a comment that at best is misleading and is simply untrue. Misleading in the fact that solar power can recharge a battery and untrue because it will fully recharge the battery if it is connected long enough. As for the electrical infrastructure not being able to handle the added load that has been debunked more than once. The UK for instance has reduced power consumption in recent years so that country has unused capacity in the grid.

"However, electric cars, they have huge batteries, they need a lot of energy to charge those batteries — more than any household solar system array can provide," Kilvert says.

rrich

26th February 2021, 10:05 AM

I had worked with a person from the Charlotte, North Carolina area. Connie and I were going to fly there to attend a couple of NASCAR races. She gave me advice about turn signals.

"In Charlotte, if you see a vehicle with their turn signal on, they probably bought it that way."

Unfortunately I wasn't there long enough to ascertain the truth or myth.

Lappa

26th February 2021, 11:42 AM

Probably a lot of members are familiar with this site but for those who are not I’ll add this link.

Green Vehicle Guide Home (https://www.greenvehicleguide.gov.au/)

Interesting information on specific vehicle CO2 emissions, L/100km, exhaust noise levels and testing etc. etc. It does include hybrids and electrics.
I used to use the info for my automotive students when they were doing theory and practical exercises.

Spyro

26th February 2021, 12:45 PM

Well the cost will come down eventually, I don't know if it will take 1 year or 100 years but it will eventually.

My question is that the whole planet currently is designed, built, and finetuned for decades around fossil fuel management. These are massive industries involved in one way or the other, with huge and far reaching implications that go beyond the obvious thoughts about company profits, jobs, infrastructure, logistics, service industries, byproducts, government economy etc. This came to my mind from watching a war movie the other day that said the US is spending $21bn every year to protect oil producing areas globally with their military, I mean I don't know if this is true or not but it doesn't sound impossible either. We all think of cutting Govt spending as a good thing, well the reality is sometimes counter-intuitive, it usually just leaves people without income and jobs. And if the Govt spends it somewhere else they're accused of being communists :D

Ofcourse the upside is human life costs, must be millions who have died in history because of fossil fuels.
But what about the countries that oil is their main industry? They will starve.

What I'm trying to say is that even if the whole planet has the best intentions around this, it's a massive shift that needs to happen pretty much everywhere.
And I don't even know if everybody has the best intentions. Not being a conspiracy theorist here, I literally don't know, I can't begin to think whose interests will be affected in what way and what their reaction is going to be. It's just too complicated, fossil fuels are currently weaved into every aspect of human civilisation. Both peaceful and not.

Bushmiller

26th February 2021, 01:29 PM

I can't begin to think whose interests will be affected in what way and what their reaction is going to be. It's just too complicated, fossil fuels are currently weaved into every aspect of human civilisation. Both peaceful and not.

Spyro

Anybody with a pecuniary interest, whether that is employment, ownership or investment. Not going to be easy.

Regards
Paul

woodPixel

26th February 2021, 02:51 PM

This may be misanthropic, but people and counties that are dependant on unsupportable industries are doomed.

Same as one-trick mining towns here... or coal... or nuclear power... or Holden/gm/ford... or steel making.... wharf automation...

I'm absolutely not US-capitalist, but those who work in these industries and look ashen-faced about "their futures" when the sword finally falls are not deserving of any sympathy. The writing isn't just on the wall, it is being broadcast on 75 TV/radio channels in hi-def 3D smell-o-vision. They are doomed. They know it. It is up to them to plan ahead. Those who don't perish.

It may be hardline, but by Zeus am I sick of seeing all the grizzling whiners complain about how "hard done by" they are when times change.

WhErEs My HaNdOut !!!!

(where am I going to find a low-qualified low-skilled job driving a coal loader being paid 200k a year now?????)

A blind man can see what's happening.

On an aside, I absolutely believe this planet is doomed. Fisheries collapse is real. Mass macrofauna extinction is real. Desertification is real. Sea acidification is real. Massive climate change is real. Humans have done this - that is real. Halving the population would be an excellent start.

Killing the oil industry is an absolute necessity.

26th February 2021, 10:15 PM

The jobs thing is a lie. Whoever solves the battery thing, creates a massive employment opportunity. Don't give handouts to exiting businesses or employees, fund the next gen of industry.

Abbot made a huge mistake by cutting the cord with the car industry subsidies. Could have, should have been...here's some money but only if you commit to a fully electric vehicle by 20xx and it's affordable and ....conditions as you will. It would have made an enormous difference to R&D in this country, we could have been a world leader, but dead dinosaurs.

I don't think we're doomed, we just need to watch the second generation of Dinosaurs die out, and a younger, more pragmatic generation enter politics.

forrestmount

27th February 2021, 09:56 AM

I believe they did provide funding

Hydrogen gives new life to Toyota's Altona car manufacturing plant - Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) (https://arena.gov.au/news/hydrogen-gives-new-life-to-toyotas-altona-car-manufacturing-plant/)

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

Beardy

27th February 2021, 10:35 AM

forrestmount

27th February 2021, 11:32 AM

Hi Beardy

I have pitched these stories but they were genuine. I have received funding in the past to help offset what is now a world leading platforms and is been sold to major OEMs.

But

I have also seen your side of the discussion. Companies seemed to apply for grants that were largely self audited to ensure compliance. This has been tightened up over the past 3 years.

I am also reading between the lines, why would Toyota build a hydrogen plant at an old manufacturing plant? Are they entering the energy sector?
I guess time will tell

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

Spyro

27th February 2021, 05:00 PM

There are some specific things that can't be done by leaving them to the free market and they require all of humanity to pool resources to get them done. And the only vehicle right now we have for doing that is governments. For better or for worse (often the latter).

We're been waiting for the free market to sort out the recycling issue for many decades now, and it's still a massive cluster. All it has achieved is figure out ways to make people feel they are recycling so they don't complain.

Personally I wouldn't mind if I got taxed another 10% of my income or more specifically to support recycling and renewable energy, but I don't think humanity is interested enough.
I give us a 50% chance we will exist a few generations from now.

woodPixel

27th February 2021, 05:28 PM

Tasmania's kelp forests feel the impact of industry of climate change - Science - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-02-27/tasmania-giant-kelp-forests-disappearing-global-ocean-warming/11209188?nw=0)

Tasmania.

The guy mentioned in the article (Puck), worked his life in kelp harvesting until it was utterly destroyed.

Then moved into the timber mill....

un. Be. Effin. Real.

The Lorax....

28th February 2021, 10:12 PM

I am not overly keen on Government funding for projects like that. Often it is just pitching a convincing story to extract funds from the public purse and it just gets gobbled up in a gravy train.
If there is an idea worth perusing there is plenty of money in the private sector who will cough up the funds if there is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow

They were already subsidising the auto industry. As pretty much any country with an auto industry does. See, the problem is, if you don't off incentives, you get jurisdiction shopping by the private sector for which ever government gives the best incentives/tax treatment. So that argument doesn't hold water.

It's really a matter of policy. Cars now are as clean/economical as they are due in a very large part to Californian clean air laws. One single state in one country on the planet. Policy driven outcomes. Who knew?

Spyro

1st March 2021, 04:21 PM

Τhere is no way ever the private sector will shift resources towards something simply because it's good for the planet, they don't give a crap. It's not their job to give a crap.
The worst thing however is that they will absolutely pretend to give a crap, because it's important for marketing, and when they pretend they do it very very convincingly.
Been pretending for half a century in recycling.

Beardy

1st March 2021, 04:40 PM

They are not doing it for the planet they are doing it for the dollar
The benefits to the planet is just a bi product

Spyro

1st March 2021, 07:09 PM

They're not doing anything, we've had the technology for both recycling and battery cars for ages. They're just both impossible to make money from.

taz01

1st March 2021, 07:16 PM

They're not doing anything, we've had the technology for both recycling and battery cars for ages. They're just both impossible to make money from.Not impossible, just previously uneconomic.

That's now changing as technologies develop, plus public opinion accepting higher prices for greener items.

Beardy

1st March 2021, 07:34 PM

They're not doing anything, we've had the technology for both recycling and battery cars for ages. They're just both impossible to make money from.

If people would buy them they would make them it is that simple. They would make cars with square wheels if that is what the consumer wanted
The reality is they are too expensive for the consumer but that is starting to turn.

It is no different to the buy Australian mantra, everyone talks it up but very few are prepared to pay the premium price point

woodPixel

1st March 2021, 08:19 PM

Placing an additional tax on the sales of new-new items would fix this.

Use that tax as a rebate to offset the costs of producing recycled-new items.

Like a GST.... 10%... or something.

(ducks for cover!)

Lappa

1st March 2021, 08:48 PM

So we want people to buy electrical vehicles so we wack another tax on top?
One of the problems re electric vehicle in some OZ States and Territories is there is no incentive to buy them, like in other countries Adding a recycling tax is only going to make it worse

Spyro

1st March 2021, 10:46 PM

Not impossible, just previously uneconomic.
That's now changing as technologies develop, plus public opinion accepting higher prices for greener items.
But technologies are not developing only in batteries, they also developing in petrol engines making them cheaper to make and run, so the bar that the electric car has to jump will always be moving.
As long as it's easier to make money from petrol then that's what car makers will do.
The amount of accumulated research and already available infrastructure is in favour of petrol by miles.

woodPixel

1st March 2021, 11:34 PM

I think with petrol, we should include in the conversation - Ethanol.

I was using this years back in Sydney when it was available at the pump as V-Power 100 RON.

MAN O MAN did the car love that. The engine tune changed radically.

The 98 now is nowhere near as good. The ethanol really added a huge kick.

I've read a few places where people talk of running the engine (LS1 V8) on pure Ethanol and it doesn't seem so big a deal to convert. The update to the computer is trivial (it plugs in and flash updates via a program. Very slick. One can "noodle" with the settings).

My fantasies aside, Ethanol is a wise thing to make. Its dead easy. I know of two organisations (Manildra and Sydney Chemicals) who supply absolute gigalitres of it now and upgrading to massive production (for just Oz) seems basic.

This stuff seems CO2 neutral. Would that be right?

edit - here: Ethanol - Manildra Group (https://www.manildra.com.au/product/ethanol/)

Lappa

2nd March 2021, 11:46 AM

While ethanol has a higher octane rating than petroleum, its energy rating is less therefore you need to use more. In the old days of carbies, we just drilled out the jets.
Flex fuel vehicles (quite common in the USA) have sensors in the fuel line and will automatically change the “tune” of the vehicle to suit the level of ethanol - most are set to a max of 85% ethanol.

Interesting read re ethanol as a fuel.

Ethanol fuel from corn faulted as 'unsustainable subsidized food burning' in analysis by Cornell scientist | Cornell Chronicle (https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2001/08/ethanol-corn-faulted-energy-waster-scientist-says)

BobL

2nd March 2021, 12:01 PM

If ethanol was used as a majority vehicle fuel it would be OK in a few high rainfall places, but the worldwide demand would place the planet into a serve water shortage and compete for food cropping land, destroy existing rain forests (imagine flattening the Brazilian rain forests to plant sugar cane for vehicles ie WOOAH) not to mention the fact that its still "internal combustion" so it still makes lots of tiny particles and other gases like nitrous oxides. We have to plan to stop the whole idea of internal combustion to propel the majority of vehicles. Long term, like mineral oil, ethanol is an important material in industrial processes and materials manufacturing so will eventually be come too expensive to burn but in the meantime we will have trashed the planet.

Glider

3rd March 2021, 09:45 PM

But technologies are not developing only in batteries, they also developing in petrol engines making them cheaper to make and run, so the bar that the electric car has to jump will always be moving.
As long as it's easier to make money from petrol then that's what car makers will do.
The amount of accumulated research and already available infrastructure is in favour of petrol by miles.

Sorry Spyro, I can't agree with your statement. The bus has left, mate. Major car manufacturers have already announced the cessation of production of petrol cars in Europe and California by 2030 and elsewhere by 2035. It will happen and the sooner our federal government gets onto the bus instead of standing by and waiting for provenance to intercede, the better. Auto makers have seen the writing on the wall and are planning to survive rather than sitting there like Kodak, Polaroid, the "old General Motors", all of whom failed to invest in new technologies to secure their future.

Nissan have foreshadowed the release of an updated car which will extend the range of their existing Leaf model. Hopefully, it'll give me what I want which is somewhere >400 kms. guaranteed at a decent speed and an affordable price.

mick

woodPixel

4th March 2021, 01:08 AM

I saw a battery pack exchanged on a Prius.

Fiddly job with a good deal of digging and a thousand bolts, but not out of the range of a person with a few spanners.

Now, if the packs were easy to get to for upgrades, that would be good... Even better if they had spare room for extra packs to plug in like suitcases.

Nice!

woodPixel

5th March 2021, 03:10 PM

They're comin'!

Honda launches world's first level 3 self-driving car -
Nikkei Asia (https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Honda-launches-world-s-first-level-3-self-driving-car)

Industry experts are cautiously watching to see if the Legend, a luxury sedan that operates without driver supervision under certain conditions but requires the driver to assume control of the vehicle within seconds when alerted, can capture enough demand to suggest a way forward for other manufacturers. Honda unveiled the Legend on Thursday at an online press event.

The new model's Traffic Jam Pilot system was approved by Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in November. It can free drivers from driving in congested traffic on an expressway when traveling slower than 50 kilometers per hour. The system automatically accelerates, brakes and steers while monitoring the vehicle's surroundings, using data from high-definition mapping and external sensors. The driver, meanwhile, can enjoy the vehicle's infotainment using the navigation screen but must respond to the system's request for a handover when the vehicle speeds up after the traffic jam eases.

BobL

5th March 2021, 04:57 PM

They're comin'!

Honda launches world's first level 3 self-driving car -
Nikkei Asia (https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Honda-launches-world-s-first-level-3-self-driving-car)

From that article

Honda said it simulated around 10 million possible situations, and conducted test drives on highways for approximately 1.3 million kilometers, in developing the car.

Interestingly, Tesla has 3 billion miles of fully self driven vehicle data, mostly collected in "on the road driving conditions by a wide variety of drivers".

Spyro

6th March 2021, 04:38 PM

Sorry Spyro, I can't agree with your statement. The bus has left, mate. Major car manufacturers have already announced the cessation of production of petrol cars in Europe and California by 2030 and elsewhere by 2035. It will happen and the sooner our federal government gets onto the bus instead of standing by and waiting for provenance to intercede, the better. Auto makers have seen the writing on the wall and are planning to survive rather than sitting there like Kodak, Polaroid, the "old General Motors", all of whom failed to invest in new technologies to secure their future.

Nissan have foreshadowed the release of an updated car which will extend the range of their existing Leaf model. Hopefully, it'll give me what I want which is somewhere >400 kms. guaranteed at a decent speed and an affordable price.

mick
Why did they do that? Because countries announced grandiose plans to ban internal combustion engines starting from their biggest cities. Which honestly sounds like the intention is to keep screwing up the planet, as long as we do it away from their precious cities. Recycling batteries is in its infancy, it's a dirty and unprofitable business that requires massive subsidies just to make it viable financially. Which is not going to happen obviously, which means you will ultimately have similar solutions as "recycling" our plastic home garbage, which means sending it on a boat to Malaysia so it can be set on fire in a jungle somewhere or to the depths of China which is a black box country that nobody knows exactly what is going on.

But, we will all feel good about our clean cities.

Bushmiller

6th March 2021, 05:41 PM

Why did they do that? Because countries announced grandiose plans to ban internal combustion engines starting from their biggest cities. Which honestly sounds like the intention is to keep screwing up the planet, as long as we do it away from their precious cities. Recycling batteries is in its infancy, it's a dirty and unprofitable business that requires massive subsidies just to make it viable financially. Which is not going to happen obviously, which means you will ultimately have similar solutions as "recycling" our plastic home garbage, which means sending it on a boat to Malaysia so it can be set on fire in a jungle somewhere or to the depths of China which is a black box country that nobody knows exactly what is going on.

But, we will all feel good about our clean cities.

I would very much like to tell you that won't happen, but to some extent it will. Gradually those practices will cease too. What we can say if that this is not commenced at some point in time it will certainly not happen. PV solar panels are in fact a good example of this. back in the 70s before funding to the CSIRO was progressively reduced, Australia was a leading source of solar development. There was no funding, diminished research and as a consequence we lost that competitive edge. If solar subsidies had not been implemented, that form of renewable would be much less prominent in Australia than it is.

We have to start somewhere.

One aspect that does not seem to receive discussion is that of commercial transport. If electric vehicles and following on from that, batteries, for the moment are problematical, the situation for trucks and other large road vehicles is far more serious. I do not know the ratio of total truck emissions compared to private vehicle emissions, but it appears to be an area that is not discussed. From trucks we would have to look too towards off road vehicles (agricultural in particular) and from there we move on towards rail, shipping and the aeronautical industry. All aspects I certainly have no suggestions about.

I certainly agree we should aspire to more than a placebo effect.

Regards
Paul

BobL

6th March 2021, 06:03 PM

One aspect that does not seem to receive discussion is that of commercial transport. If electric vehicles and following on from that, batteries, for the moment are problematical, the situation for trucks and other large road vehicles is far more serious. I do not know the ratio of total truck emissions compared to private vehicle emissions, but it appears to be an area that is not discussed. From trucks we would have to look too towards off road vehicles (agricultural in particular) and from there we move on towards rail, shipping and the aeronautical industry. All aspects I certainly have no suggestions about.

It depends on the type of commercial transport. We tend to think of long distance commercial haulage, but most commercial vehicles operate in and around industrial centres and cities. Short distances and stop start driving spending overnight at base is the largest grouping. This is ideal for electric vehicles like vans and light trucks, but even bigger trucks are already out there..

Here is a real Mack Rubbish truck ready for testing
Mack Delivers First Electric Garbage Truck to End User (https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/09/mack-delivers-first-electric-garbage-truck-to-end-user/)

SA and WA already have been testing electric rubbish trucks for some time.
SA’s First Electric Garbage Truck Doing The Rounds – SEA... the Future (https://www.sea-electric.com/sas-first-electric-garbage-truck-doing-the-rounds/)

Diamler has an electric 18 wheeler that does 220 miles which is fine around industrial centres and cities.

woodPixel

6th March 2021, 07:39 PM

Elon Musk: 10x More Tesla Cars To Get Full Self-Driving Beta Soon (https://cleantechnica.com/2021/03/05/elon-musk-10x-more-tesla-cars-to-get-full-self-driving-beta-soonish/)

Chris Parks

6th March 2021, 10:12 PM

But technologies are not developing only in batteries, they also developing in petrol engines making them cheaper to make and run, so the bar that the electric car has to jump will always be moving.
As long as it's easier to make money from petrol then that's what car makers will do.
The amount of accumulated research and already available infrastructure is in favour of petrol by miles.

This is the reason all European manufacturers are going electric as it is the quickest way to avoid the crippling fines they will face if they don't meet the European emissions targets

Carmakers Face Billions in European CO2 Fines from 2021 | IndustryWeek (https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/environment/article/22024227/carmakers-face-billions-in-european-co2-fines-from-2021#:~:text=If%20the%20target%20is%20not,engines%2C%20the%20study%20authors%20forecast).

Spyro

7th March 2021, 10:28 AM

I would very much like to tell you that won't happen, but to some extent it will. Gradually those practices will cease too. What we can say if that this is not commenced at some point in time it will certainly not happen. PV solar panels are in fact a good example of this. back in the 70s before funding to the CSIRO was progressively reduced, Australia was a leading source of solar development. There was no funding, diminished research and as a consequence we lost that competitive edge. If solar subsidies had not been implemented, that form of renewable would be much less prominent in Australia than it is.
Ι don't know Paul, it's my luck I think, I keep getting involved in those industries and the more I learn the more cynical I get.
Just happened to work for a solar park company last year with multiple $100m+ projects around AU, and they lost a tonne of money on all of them, and everywhere I looked I found they were not the only ones. From talking to the experts it became clear that the main problem was in the commissioning stage ie connecting the thing to the grid, because the grid in AU is so old and fragile that it took months and then years of testing, trials, audits and modifications just to make sure they don't blow it up when connecting the park to it. At some point I thought it's just a bad industry with no future, at least in this country, but I see more companies like that keep coming, and trying, and losing money, even with the cheapest possible PV panels they're using. See how long it lasts.

The problem with all those new technologies, electric cars, plastic recycling, battery recycling, solar panels, is that they're really not new at all, they've all been around for decades. And if they haven't found a way by now to make them profitable they will simply not take off. Mobile phones took off basically because humanity agreed to quadruple their phone bill from what they were paying for telecommunications in the 90's. But for energy, recycling and transportation people don't want to pay more. Because lets face it, most of us and our companies say that we care about all that green stuff, but we really don't. If we did, we'd pay.

Beardy

7th March 2021, 10:39 AM

BobL

7th March 2021, 10:48 AM

It sounds like you missed the bus, eg solar panels have taken off big time.
490803

I detest the fact that energy generation and supply has for years been rabidly held onto by large entities (ie government, multinationals and large businesses) using dubious practices . The decentralisation of a commodity like energy can only be good thing.

Anyway I can't seen how blaming grid failure is the reason we should't be using renewables. Due to increased energy demand the grid would be failing whether we use renewables or not. If anything the renewables are spurring the renewal of the grid as it is sorely needed. yes we have to find a way to pay for it. My electrical provider charges me 28 c/kWhr to draw from the grid and only 7c/kWhr to supply. If they can't make a go of that to fund a decent grid then they need another job.

Spyro

7th March 2021, 10:54 AM

I would of thought the main issue was that the technology is not there to service our peak requirements which are normally the times that solar is not producing energy so they are trying to sell a product at a time when the demand is not there for buying.

If it worked and made coal fired stations redundant I think the public would get on board but we aren’t there yet are we?
I think this is more relevant to the household PVs, solar parks by definition have to send nearly all their output to the grid anyway. We're nowhere close to replacing coal fired stations, the $100m+ projects I was talking about are only good for powering a small town or large village. But I'm not an engineer, I'm in finance, so maybe I'm not explaining it properly, but I could see there were typically some budget overruns in transportation, labour and subcontractors (all understandable because those projects are always out in the bush and it costs a lot to get all the hardware and the specialised personnel over there), but the main overruns were always in commissioning, you could tell they never thought it would take so much time and effort to plug the damn thing in. The hardware and technology was hardly ever the problem, at least budget wise.

Spyro

7th March 2021, 10:56 AM

Anyway I can't seen how blaming grid failure is the reason we should't be using renewables.
Not saying we shouldn't, I'm saying we should make a brave decision and pay no matter what. Instead of waiting for the technology to catch up.
But when I say pay I mean include the recycling of batteries as well, there's lots of nasties in those things and the current recycling situation is a bit shady at best.

Bushmiller

7th March 2021, 11:34 AM

Ι don't know Paul, it's my luck I think, I keep getting involved in those industries and the more I learn the more cynical I get.
Just happened to work for a solar park company last year with multiple $100m+ projects around AU, and they lost a tonne of money on all of them, and everywhere I looked I found they were not the only ones. From talking to the experts it became clear that the main problem was in the commissioning stage ie connecting the thing to the grid, because the grid in AU is so old and fragile that it took months and then years of testing, trials, audits and modifications just to make sure they don't blow it up when connecting the park to it. At some point I thought it's just a bad industry with no future, at least in this country, but I see more companies like that keep coming, and trying, and losing money, even with the cheapest possible PV panels they're using. See how long it lasts.

The problem with all those new technologies, electric cars, plastic recycling, battery recycling, solar panels, is that they're really not new at all, they've all been around for decades. And if they haven't found a way by now to make them profitable they will simply not take off. Mobile phones took off basically because humanity agreed to quadruple their phone bill from what they were paying for telecommunications in the 90's. But for energy, recycling and transportation people don't want to pay more. Because lets face it, most of us and our companies say that we care about all that green stuff, but we really don't. If we did, we'd pay.

Spyro

I have mentioned many times on this Forum and bored friends and relatives to tears pointing out that, thanks to a number of governments progressively privatising the industry, the market is now a competitive one that is driven fundamentally by the bottom line. I also need to point out that I do not agree with this state of affairs, but it is now what we have and I believe it is irreversible. Even if they wanted to, and they don't, the respective state governments do not have the money to buy back.

So let us step on to the exponential rise in the solar installations. That was relatively easy as far as domestic solar was concerned because the infrastructure was already there, although arguably antiquated and in need of upgrades. Electricity can flow either way: No problem. The increased demand has led to huge production savings to the point where the cost of panels is probably approaching one tenth of what it was only two or three years ago. In that regard the initial subsidies did their intended job and kick started the process.

The problems have arisen more to do with the commercial companies. They saw an opportunity and grabbed it. Installed large arrays and then got all bitter and twisted when there were no lines to connect to the grid. Sorry. If you build out in the middle of nowhere, you will need to provide the transmission lines. What part of a commercial operation do you not understand?

Now at this point I have to declare my involvement in the industry in that I am employed at the second last coal fired power station built in Australia ( commissioned in 2003). When our station was built, in addition to the basic infrastructure (boiler, turbine, generator and associated ancillary plant) we had had to construct power lines, a substation, a road bypass around the town and a pipeline supplying treated effluent from Toowoomba, which is nearly 100Km away.

When the station was conceived, back in the early 90s, it was identified that the trigger for a new station was when the wholesale price reached $35/MWhr. At the moment the average price thirty years later is less than $45/MWhr, which equates to 4.5c/KWhr (so BobL is not doing too badly at 7c/KWhr :) ). However I am comparing Queensland to WA so that is not altogether valid, but it will be similar. However, I can't see that too many more solar companies will be contemplating large installations for the moment: The reason being that during the day the spot price often falls to zero. This makes it extremely difficult for any company to recoup their outlay and begin to make a profit. A solar company only has the day to make money. Of course not all power is sold on the spot market and contracts are made involving fixed prices. The dynamic has changed markedly for the thermal generators and indeed everybody and during the day we hardly break even. We now make our money in the "sunless" hours. That option is not available to solar companies until such time as the issues around storage, be that batteries or any other form, are solved.

When we talk about paying for green energy, anybody who has installed a solar PV on their house has "paid" as they have coughed up money right up front. Even with subsidies it takes years for it to pay for itself and without subsidies the best it can do is mitigate the electricity cost. So I would contend that to some extent we are putting our money where our mouth is.

As I have stated on the Forum before, I am a big fan of solar power ( I have two solar PV installations) but I am not one eyed about it and recognise that there are many issues that surround it. Same with thermal power and in fact I will sing my usual chorus that "There is no power source available today that does not have a fundamental flaw. None"

Regards
Paul

woodPixel

7th March 2021, 12:44 PM

Wind lost Kohle in Deutschland als wichtigster Energietrager ab | heise online (https://www.heise.de/news/Wind-loest-Kohle-in-Deutschland-als-wichtigster-Energietraeger-ab-5073063.html)

From the report: "The share of renewable energies in the amount of electricity generated and fed into the grid domestically rose from 42.3 percent in 2019 to 47.0 percent last year. At 25.6 percent, wind power was the first renewable energy source to have the highest share of the amount of electricity fed into the grid in a given year, replacing coal as the most important energy source. In 2020, 5.4 percent more electricity was generated from wind power than in 2019, when the share had been 22.8 percent..." (Sidenote: Paragraph translated by deepL (https://www.deepl.com/translator) in seconds; [I])

I think its short sighted to consider that one form of generation cannot replace another.

I'm a shareholder in a few interesting things, one of those Interesting Things was a major coal plant saying they are building a MONSTER solar array so that when their coal-generating capability closes they can still use their interconnects to fill the pipe.

I also own coal shares, not because what coal does for the generation of power (pure evil), but the very interesting uses that almost-pure carbon has for other industrial processes.

There will be a time, not too far in the future where generations of people will collectively p1ss on all our graves.... "they BURNT oil and coal??????????"......

elanjacobs

7th March 2021, 01:18 PM

Bushmiller

7th March 2021, 02:42 PM

The one thing that no one wants to talk about, but really should, is nuclear. Australia is one of the best placed countries to use it (we're one of the largest producers of uranium in the world, we're geologically stable and we have vast areas of land to both build plants on and store waste in), yet we won't even consider it.

Current and emerging fission reactor designs are vastly safer, more efficient and produce less waste than those of 20+ years ago and would, IMO, be the ideal replacement for dinosaur juice until true renewables are viable as a permanent option. Or until fusion reactors happen :rolleyes:

Elan

You may have picked up from my earlier post that last sentence. The bit about fundamental flaws. Nuclear is no exception. Yes, the more modern reactors are much safer than the old types: Chernobyl and Fukushima were the both the ancient BWR style (Boiling Water Reactor) and it is true that many improvements have been made in recent times, but the fundamental problems have not been resolved. The first and overriding issue is what to do with the waste. Every "solution" so far is just putting off the evil moment like shuffling paper from one tray to the next but never actually dealing with it.

Secondly, make no mistake, they are expensive to build. Think two to three times the cost of a conventional fossil fuelled station at a time when they were permitted. We are looking for private enterprise to put up their hands and fork out piles of money and they will only be generating trough the "sunless" hours. They are now competing with a solar panel. Not looking too promising.

Thirdly, if you have a safety excursion, it is going to be bad: Very bad.

Fourthly, where are you going to put it? It is the same problem as solar. Australia has vast uninhabited areas and that is precisely the point: There is nobody there. The power has to be transmitted via power lines to the load centres, which in Australia are primarily on or close to the coast. The power lines are expensive. The economy, if there ever was one, just flew out the window. So they need to be placed within populated areas. Which one of you is going to put up his or her hand to have it in their backyard? I can categorically tell you it won't be me! Nuclear stations until now have needed plentiful supplies of cooling water so that would be another barrier to the desert regions. It may be that they could use air-cooled condensers (the power station at which I work does this) but I am not aware and have not checked that out. (one for the researchers).

If there is a glimmer of hope with nuclear it would be for a Thorium reactor, but I stress it is only a glimmer. At this point nobody has seriously entertained the idea, although one or two pilot schemes have been trialled. Thorium has the advantage of a short half life of the fuel and a nuclear reaction that can be stopped at the flick of a switch, unlike the uranium or plutonium fuels that just keep going and going like a grotesque and insidious Energiser battery (remember the TV ads by the footballer?). Hence the phrase "The China Syndrome" and film of the same name. In other words, a nuke disaster in the Western hemisphere would keep melting through the core until it reached China: A small exaggeration of course.

So why is there this reluctance to pursue a thorium fuelled reactor? I believe there are some basic problems as in it is more difficult to initiate the chain reaction and indeed keep that reaction going. Anything that can be stopped easily tends to stop itself when you least want this to happen. I would have thought that given some R & D that side of things could be resolved. Probably the expense is still similar to conventional nuclear stations so that issue remains. My own cynical view is that you cannot make a nuclear bomb using thorium. Anybody nation that has nuclear power stations either has or aspires to having a bomb. It is quite a stretch to go from the enrichment necessary for a power station at say 4% to 7% and 94%+ for something that would flatten Sydney, but nations' leaders have wonderful visions and that is where they would like to go given the chance. I don't actually believe they want to flatten Sydney: They just want the capability.

Perhaps that is the final reason for not going nuclear.

Regards
Paul

elanjacobs

7th March 2021, 06:21 PM

Chernobyl and Fukushima are always given as example of what could go wrong, but don't forget that there was a series of events that led to those accidents being as bad as they were and I don't believe they are really indicative of the likely problems we could encounter here.

Chernobyl was basically an accident waiting to happen with comically inadequate containment vessels, flammable materials used in the construction of the reactor buildings and flagrant disregard for safety in general (the chief engineer of reactor 3 refused to shut down the reactor despite the roof of the building literally being on fire from the explosion at reactor 4).

The root failure cause of Fukushima wasn't actually the reactor itself, the earthquake detection systems shut the active reactors down safely as they were designed to do, it was the subsequent flooding and disabling of the backup generators for the reactor cooling systems that actually caused the meltdown. This was despite a backup generator failure due to flooding in 1991, a 2000 study recommending measures be put in place to allow for a 15m tsunami (the one that caused the incident was 14m), and a 2008 study outlining the immediate need to better protect the facility from flooding. The 2008 study mentioned tsunami up to 10.2m and was dismissed by management as "unrealistic". If you build a reactor on the most active fault line in the world and ignore the safety warnings, there's a good chance something will blow up.

I'm not trying to suggest that either one would have been entirely prevented, but I'm quite sure they could have been far less severe than they were had appropriate preventative safety measures been taken.

As for location, the closer to me the better; if something catastrophic happens, I'd rather die quickly. I know it's a bit morbid, but I'd rather that than waiting months or years for the inevitable.