Electric, Hybrid or Just Wait

[Bushmiller]

As for location, the closer to me the better; if something catastrophic happens, I'd rather die quickly. I know it's a bit morbid, but I'd rather that than waiting months or years for the inevitable.

Elan

If you ever decide on a career in politics I recommend you don't use that statement as your platform. :) Actually, a large proportion of the population are not too fussed about having even a wind turbine near by and I have a SIL who thinks solar panels are a blight on the skyline so under the circumstances I don't think the population will be receptive to a nuke.

Returning to the Fukushima incident for a moment, it actually brings up the main objection to nukes: Namely that of the waste. The "containment" area is where they stored the spent fuel rods, which are of course a long way off "spent." It exacerbated the incident because they have nowhere to place this material. For a while the Americans used the spent uranium for armour piercing weapons and I think they may still do although internationally this is increasingly frowned upon, but not yet banned.. I think. Otherwise there is currently not much demand for used nuclear fuel.

Yes, the wisdom of hindsight is truly enlightening. Sure they could have done better: They didn't and the holes in the Swiss cheese all lined up.

Regards
Paul

PS: Apologies to the OP. Mick, I am afraid we have digressed a little :rolleyes: and I am as much to blame as anybody. I hope somewhere in the seven pages and one hundred posts we have answered your question on electric and hybrid vehicles.

[Chris Parks]

Paul, I was led to believe that the total Australian power consumption was not high enough for even the smallest nuclear power plant and that was one of the reasons it was not considered.

[Glider]

PS: Apologies to the OP. Mick, I am afraid we have digressed a little :rolleyes: and I am as much to blame as anybody. I hope somewhere in the seven pages and one hundred posts we have answered your question on electric and hybrid vehicles.

That's OK, Paul. The two posts from people who actually had electric or hybrid cars convinced me to wait and it looks likely that might be only a couple of years.

In response to other posts, I believe that public authorities have to predict demand, provide appropriate infrastructure and stimulate private bodies to do the same. That's what the national census is all about, predicting trends. IMO, the market for electric vehicles is currently being stymied by a lack of public recharging facilities, and in my case, the inability to recharge at home in a private facility. It's the same with the large solar arrays needed to provide the cheap energy needed to make our manufacturing industries internationally competitive. Government policy should be requiring their public facilities to engage actively with private power providers which will stimulate the change needed to use our abundant solar resources. Waiting for the market is exactly that; waiting, not doing. (rant over).

mick

[BobL]

Paul, I was led to believe that the total Australian power consumption was not high enough for even the smallest nuclear power plant and that was one of the reasons it was not considered.

The European countries that have nuclear power are : Belgium (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Belgium), Bulgaria (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Bulgaria), Czech Republic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_the_Czech_Republic), Finland (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Finland), France (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France), Germany (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Germany), Hungary (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Hungary), Netherlands (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_the_Netherlands), Romania (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Romania), Slovakia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Slovakia), Slovenia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Slovenia), Spain (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Spain) and Sweden (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Sweden). About half of these have smaller or significantly smaller populations than Oz. A number of these realise it was a mistake and are shutting their reactors down. Germay has shut down about half of its 17 reactors and plan to phase out completely but the mid 20030's.

My PhD was involved with nuclear waste disposal and for about 20 years after that I was a proponent of nuclear power, but eventually I came to the conclusion that although there's nothing inherently wrong with the science its the implementation that's the problem, and I worry about our governments simply inability to handle anything so potentially dangerous. Just look at the balls up of the NBN and the sheer incompetence over the handling of climate change. Governments have to be heavily involved because they would set the regulatory framework (this is a HUGE task) to manage the process. We simply don't even have the scientists and engineers to even set up the regs so we would have to import these - from where - Maybe France? (anyone say "submarines?")

But the thing that really sticks in my craw with nuclear is it firmly places power/distribution of energy solely in the hands of bureaucrats/multinationals under centralized control. I detest this - we need to decentralise energy so that consumers are as close as possible to being the producers - this makes more of them more aware of costs, usage and how to save power - its better for everyone if this is the case.

I think it would be foolish to chase nuclear power at this stage simply because we do not need to. For the cost of a nuclear program to replace coal we could rebuild the grid (which we need to do anyway) build large solar/wind farms, and install energy storage systems (like a battery in every house that has or gets solar) around the country that could power all of Australia. Nuclear makes some sense for countries which has no sun and little wind for half of the year but for us I increasingly see it as an undesirable way to go.

[Bushmiller]

Thank you Bob for wading in on this one. Knowing your background I hoped you would lend the scientific understanding to the discussion. I smiled to myself when I saw your reference to submarines as that scenario went through my mind when I was typing my earlier post and the prospect of responsible behaviour or lack of it.

Apart from all the problems of nuclear power (as I said before all power sources have at least one flaw) I don't believe there is the economy now for any large scale power station if it is not able to generate for 24 hours per day: It has to be able to do that to stand a chance of recouping the outlay as it is a commercial enterprise. These are a some quotes from my workplace (edited by me in italics to protect confidential information)

"Gone are the days where the units sit at full load all day every day with no ramping.
Solar penetration is increasing year on year, forcing negative midday prices."

That was typically the purpose of the base load stations.

"Voltage instability is becoming a real problem for AEMO and South Australia will soon have to deal with negative demand (another rule change coming). Get your head around negative demand – rooftop PV generation exceeds the demand for electricity. Who pays whom? Who pays for frequency control when there is no demand? No demand does not equal no frequency control… so someone has to pay….. the battle continues."

Frequency control is provided by the traditional generators: Solar at the moment is not equipped to do this with the exception of batteries such as the Tesla installation.

"In addition, the national electricity rules change all the time. Anyone can request a rule change.
We are currently on version 157. 1 year ago, we were on version 133.
That’s 24 rule changes in 12 months (an average of 2 per month!!)."


Life is not quite as simplistic as we are led to believe in the electricity market.

Regards
Paul

[elanjacobs]

Just saw this, looks like Canada is trying Canada will invest billions to electrify mass transit | Engadget (https://www.engadget.com/canada-investment-to-electrify-mass-transit-212738694.html)
I remember Perth had a small fleet of hydrogen busses running around a while ago, I'm assuming it was cost prohibitive to keep them going.

[Bushmiller]

Just saw this, looks like Canada is trying Canada will invest billions to electrify mass transit | Engadget (https://www.engadget.com/canada-investment-to-electrify-mass-transit-212738694.html)
I remember Perth had a small fleet of hydrogen busses running around a while ago, I'm assuming it was cost prohibitive to keep them going.

Elan

Much depends on the method of producing the hydrogen. The cheap way, via fossil fuels, results in carbon emissions. The electrolysis method is clean, providing it is produced from solar or wind power, but expensive. If we get to the point where excess solar power is available through the day, it could conceivably be used to produce H2 via electrolysis: It becomes the storage bank instead of batteries.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

Paul, I was led to believe that the total Australian power consumption was not high enough for even the smallest nuclear power plant and that was one of the reasons it was not considered.

Chris

Historically "nukes" have been large stations, primarily because of the economy of scale. I used to tout that as another reason for not going nuclear, but there was an increasing trend for a while to build much smaller plants. However, I think the whole dynamic has changed in the last two or three years to the point where there is just not the economy in building a nuclear station. Without the prospect of making money, no private investor is going to commit.

In an earlier post I mentioned that the entry point for any new station was $35/MWhr: That was back in 1995. This is a snapshot of the prices today taken at midday:

490872

Now I must emphasise this is a "snapshot" and not an average, but these prices are higher than normal for this time of day! Frequently they are negative in some states. On one hand this is good news for the consumer, except that these savings are not typically passed on to the consumer, but on the other hand it is bad because it limits the amount of new players prepared to enter the market.

The capitol cost of a nuke is high compared to any other form of electricity generation.

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

The capitol cost of a nuke is high compared to any other form of electricity generation.


Not to mention the decommissioning costs etc.

[woodPixel]

Back to OP's question!

In todays ABC News ---- > Cheaper electric cars are coming but is it still too early to jump on board? It depends who you ask - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-08/should-your-next-vehicle-be-an-electric-car/13217266)

[Chris Parks]

Chris

Historically "nukes" have been large stations, primarily because of the economy of scale. I used to tout that as another reason for not going nuclear, but there was an increasing trend for a while to build much smaller plants. However, I think the whole dynamic has changed in the last two or three years to the point where there is just not the economy in building a nuclear station. Without the prospect of making money, no private investor is going to commit.

In an earlier post I mentioned that the entry point for any new station was $35/MWhr: That was back in 1995. This is a snapshot of the prices today taken at midday:

490872

Now I must emphasise this is a "snapshot" and not an average, but these prices are higher than normal for this time of day! Frequently they are negative in some states. On one hand this is good news for the consumer, except that these savings are not typically passed on to the consumer, but on the other hand it is bad because it limits the amount of new players prepared to enter the market.

The capitol cost of a nuke is high compared to any other form of electricity generation.

Regards
Paul

Media hype??? Electricty market: Coal plants in peril as prices plunge (https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/closures-any-day-coal-plants-in-peril-as-prices-plunge-20210307-p578gx.html)

[crowie]

And while this has to be a staged video on YouTube, I think it’d be the only safe way to travel in Australia!

Funny way to run a Tesla on gas and charge it by gas - YouTube (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=viFSsu43yxs)

[Bushmiller]

Media hype??? Electricty market: Coal plants in peril as prices plunge (https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/closures-any-day-coal-plants-in-peril-as-prices-plunge-20210307-p578gx.html)

Chris

Rather than continuing to detract from Glider's thread I have started a new thread on the general questions regarding the Electricity market and attempted an answer there:

Future of the Australian Electricity Market (woodworkforums.com) (https://www.woodworkforums.com/f43/future-australian-electricity-market-240514#post2232688)

Regards
Paul

[AlexS]

I haven't contributed much if anything to this thread, but I'd like to say how rare and useful it has been to be able to follow a civil discussion between people who know what they're talking about, have considered various options and are willing to defend their point of view with logical arguments, rather than shouting.
I may be none the wiser, but at least I'm better informed.

[Spyro]

Same here, I enjoyed reading this and I feel I learned new things, thanks

[Handyjack]

In a similar vein to post #112 you might want to look at this BMW i3.
I Bought a $50K 2018 BMW i3 from Carvana for $19K!! Vending Machine Experience!! - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sre2cdiFGWs)
While I do not know how true the claims are about recharging the battery on the go are, it is a solution to range anxiety in a pure EV.
As far as I am aware the i3 is available in Australia, but not necessarily with an internal combustion engine.

[stevenjd]

We wife and I own a 200 LC Landcruiser for towing and a Tesla for getting around. The effortless driving of the Tesla is amazing. Not to mention the power, the thing just flies.
At the start of looking to buy a second car after selling the VW we drove just about everything around the 80K-95K bracket. The Tesla is funny you seem to pay for less compared to a BMW, Lexus, Audi, Merc etc. But we have had it now for about as year I would guess and to be honest, it is amazing.
The Landcruiser we use to pull a very heavy caravan and I think it will be quite some time before electrics catch up in that area, And really I'm not sure if Hydrogen won't be the choice of heavy vehicles in the future.
But as they say least number of parts the better. To that end electric cars are very simply compared to Diesel cars if they get the obvious sorted.
Steven

[BobL]

The Landcruiser we use to pull a very heavy caravan and I think it will be quite some time before electrics catch up in that area, And really I'm not sure if Hydrogen won't be the choice of heavy vehicles in the future.

How heavy?

[stevenjd]

All up 7.4 ton. Car and van.

[BobL]

All up 7.4 ton. Car and van.

OK given the max Towing weight spec for the 200 LC Landcruiser is 3500 kg

Things may be closer than you think with models like the Rivian R1S is up there at 3.5 Tons.
The big problem is there are no plans to release in Oz - somehow I doubt we'll ever see them here
0-60 MPH in 3s as well - obviously not while towing.

[elanjacobs]

OK given the max Towing weight spec for the 200 LC Landcruiser is 3500 kg

Things may be closer than you think with models like the Rivian R1S is up there at 3.5 Tons.
The big problem is there are no plans to release in Oz - somehow I doubt we'll ever see them here
0-60 MPH in 3s as well - obviously not while towing.
The bigger problem (that manufacturers conveniently omit) is that towing absolutely tanks battery life. The numbers look comparable on paper, but in the real world it doesn't add up yet.

Good video here with lots of math explaining it, I know it's 2 years old and comparing an F150 to a Landcruiser isn't exactly even, but it's still a good demonstration of what's going on Why Teslas Are Bad At Towing (Today) - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4W-P5aCWJs)

[havabeer69]

The bigger problem (that manufacturers conveniently omit) is that towing absolutely tanks battery life. The numbers look comparable on paper, but in the real world it doesn't add up yet.

Good video here with lots of math explaining it, I know it's 2 years old and comparing an F150 to a Landcruiser isn't exactly even, but it's still a good demonstration of what's going on Why Teslas Are Bad At Towing (Today) - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4W-P5aCWJs)

all my friends complain about their fuel economy turning to poop towing their $50,000+ caravans around with their ford rangers etc.

[elanjacobs]

all my friends complain about their fuel economy turning to poop towing their $50,000+ caravans around with their ford rangers etc.

Yeah, but you can refill a petrol car in 5 mins...EVs not so much

[Mr Brush]

Pfffft....electric cars? No thanks, I'm holding out for my personal jetpack, which they've been promising us for years now. Can't be far away? :rolleyes:

Available Now! The Jetpack! - That Mitchell & Webb Look Series 4 Episode 3 - BBC Two - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDIojhOkV4w)

[Chris Parks]

Yeah, but you can refill a petrol car in 5 mins...EVs not so much
The cost or refueling an electric BEV is far cheaper than a conventional ICE powered vehicle. The upside of electric power is of course a flat torque curve which delivers effortless towing in a far quiter vehicle and the downside not often mentioned is the problem of constant high current draw which batteries don't like. I am surprised Jason didn't mention it in the video.

[Bushmiller]

Everything has a trade-off. if you use a petrol or diesel vehicle to tow a 3.5 tonne trailer that has the aerodynamics of a brick you are going to pay through the wallet. The latest motor version with the twin turbos have economies varying around the 9.5L/100 to 10.5L/100 (23mpg to 20mpg very roughly in the old money.) Tow your favourite brick and that would probably halve, if you are honest. Nobody gets anything for nothing!

The majority of nomads travel 100km to 200km at a go. So the electric vehicle will be able to cope with this. Admittedly if you want to go further you are going to have to plan a little, but between comfort stops and food intake I would suggest this can easily be accommodated. Just don't attempt to go across the Nullarbor just yet!

For those that think the electric vehicle cannot tow, have a gander at this (about 30 seconds in) from the delightful Juice Media girls:

(Language Warning: For the lily livered among you.)

:wink:

Honest Government Ads - The Juice Media (https://www.thejuicemedia.com/honest-government-ads/)

Regards
Paul

PS: It is not really the Australian Government! Apparently somebody in the Government at one time thought there would be some confusion. :rolleyes:

[BobL]

Most 4WDs in Australia are rarely if ever used primarily for towing heavy things over long distances. Instead they sit in driveways and carparks for the larger part of each year.

My realestate sales neighbours who work from home have two (sometimes 3) 4WDs and these vehicles sit in their drive for most of the week. Every other school holidays they take one to a caravan park, towing a small camper trailer. In about 4 years I have seen one of the vehicles come back covered in gravel dust, just once. They don't even drive their kids to school as a relative (in their 4WD) does that.

The other side neighbours also have a 4WD. it gets used for daily commuting and to occasionally go to their holiday shack 120km up the coast on weekends.

SWMBO bought an Isuzu MUX after she burnt out the clutch on the Subaru Forester towing her horse (float + horse ~1300kg).
With the MUX she can now transport two horses, but only does this about every 4-6 weeks and only around the metro area which the MUX does at a doddle. A couple of times a year we've headed south, sometimes towing our 900kg A-van (well more like 1200kg once SWMBO has included he cellar). SWMBO would have bought an electric SUV if one was available, even if on the occasional run down south we would have had to wait for an hour or so to recharge. We do that anyway because we're not usually in a hurry, and we travel with two dogs and we give them a break about every two hours.

BTW the MUX hardly notices the towing of the 1000kg A-Van. Fuel consumption of the MUX only increased by about 10% probably compared to the 25% increase with the Subaru. I suspect the difference is in part because the MUX is taller than the Subaru so the van doesn't produce as much wind resistance when its being towed by the MUX. The same would apply on an electric SUV.

[stevenjd]

Generally speaking the people who complain about all the negatives regarding the ownership of an EV don't own one. The same as owning as heavy 200 series Landcruiser and expecting a vehicle weighing 3 plus ton to get the same economy as a 2 ton vehicle.
But if you suggest going for a smaller car and smaller van the simple answer is no way.

As to driving and an EV and towing a heavy van I can't see it my short life time left. So the so called range anxiety will be not be answered in the near future.

The Rivian I have been following for quite some time and I like it. But it will be very expensive, and the idea as it stands to plan your total trip where you will be able to recharge the batteries and for how long you stay at each charge station isn't pleasant.

I have noticed even with the Tesla that charge stations are becoming a bit of a que if you do a popular trip. At the moment its all a bit trivial to worry about but there will be a need arise as too the number and location of charge points.

When we were buying the Tesla one of the questions I asked Tesla was how many charge stations are you installing per year in Australia. And I didn't receive an answer at all.

Will EV's be the future in motoring I have no idea but what is interesting is to hear people living OS saying how many EV's there are. Australia is a fly spec on the global needs and if we are forced in the future to go EV then Australia will have to follow suit.
Steven

[BobL]

.
.
.
I have noticed even with the Tesla that charge stations are becoming a bit of a que if you do a popular trip. At the moment its all a bit trivial to worry about but there will be a need arise as too the number and location of charge points.

When we were buying the Tesla one of the questions I asked Tesla was how many charge stations are you installing per year in Australia. And I didn't receive an answer at all.

There will no doubt be problems with queues at fast charging stations but I see this as a teething rather than perennial problem.

The charging stations are coming
Winners in Round 1 of ARENA’s Future Fuels Fund rollout


Ampol: 121 public fast charging stations across NSW, QLD, VIC & WA.
Chargefox: 16 public fast charging stations across SA & WA.
Electric Highways Tasmania: 5 public fast charging stations in TAS.
Engie: 103 public fast charging stations across NSW, QLD, SA, VIC.
Evie Networks: 158 public fast charging stations across all states/territories.

Like Ampol I can envisage many a servo converting most of their parking bays into charging stations and some of them on popular routes will even have their own large battery and solar farm.

[stevenjd]

I don't disagree with you at all Bob, and to be honest the only negative about owning a Tesla is the initial purchase price.
The whole idea of cradle to grave costs impact on the environment is very complex, and I think we all have stories to tell about our own personnel impact on what we should have done differently.
None of solutions are without fault as described before. I personally would love to see more research into tidal movement energy capture but it has many issues to be solved but the main driver for me is the tide never sleeps.
Steven.

PS Barnaby is a bit of a fan of the Nuclear power station discussion. And after all he is a real legend... Just ask him.....(mature discussion I think he calls it).

[Chris Parks]

I liken the present problem of chargers as about the same as it was in about 1910 when the ICE was first introduced and there were very few places that sold petrol. Cars had a limited range, nowhere to buy petrol so a horse was better as it could refuel itself while you were having lunch.

[BobL]

A few years ago I read a book by Yann Martel, The High mountains of Portugal, a weird book that includes references too driving a car in remote Portugal in the early 1900's when petrol has sometimes available in mL quantities from places like pharmacies.

Planes were another mode of transport that were initially limited by refuelling.

And the first steam ships that were not efficient enough to carry enough fuel to cross the Atlantic. There was even a proposal to station colliers out to sea for refuelling.

[havabeer69]

Pfffft....electric cars? No thanks, I'm holding out for my personal jetpack, which they've been promising us for years now. Can't be far away? :rolleyes:

Available Now! The Jetpack! - That Mitchell & Webb Look Series 4 Episode 3 - BBC Two - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDIojhOkV4w)


the future is now.... pretty sure if you look up adam savages videos about building an iron man suit this company will make you a custom 1050BHP suit for $400,000 - $500,000 U.S dollars. Honestly If i ever win a decent sum of money in lotto, along with a trip to space I will be buying one of them


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtvCnZqZnxc


Gravity Industries (https://gravity.co/)